Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Seahawks 25, Patriots 20 at Lumen Field in Week 1. That is a lean: Seahawks win about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.5 points and 44.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Patriots are 4-3, scoring 22.9 and allowing 20.4 points per game (+2.5 per game). The Seahawks are 4-3, scoring 24 and allowing 17.9 points per game (+6.1 per game).
Seahawks' elite defense (2nd) should limit Patriots' middle-of-the-pack offense (12th of 32, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense). Seahawks' strong offense (8th of 32, worth about 25.1 points against an average defense) meets Patriots' strong defense (5th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Seahawks puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Patriots by 12 and Seahawks by 21 about 80% of the time.
The Seahawks get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Seahawks by about 1.9. The game is on NBC.
Result: Patriots 10, Seahawks 13. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.5 points and the total by 21.8.
More: Patriots schedule · Seahawks schedule · all Week 1 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.