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🔥 undefeated · 💎 90%+ · ⭐ 72%+ and 10+ points better than usual on games it never saw (20+ of them, 40+ in all)

🐢 Slow game · Leans Under: fewer points than the total: Both offenses rank in the bottom 40 for plays per game (pace). Fewer snaps means fewer chances to score for both teams, so totals tend to come in low.
🛡️ Defensive battle · Leans Under: fewer points than the total: Both defenses rank top 30 in EPA per play allowed. Two defenses that stop plays efficiently cut each other's scoring.
💥 Shootout · Leans Over: more points than the total: Both offenses top 30 in explosive play rate, or both defenses bottom 40 in EPA allowed. Big-play offenses or leaky defenses at both ends put points up quickly.
🧱 Red-zone stall · Leans Under: fewer points than the total: Both offenses bottom 40 in red-zone touchdown rate: drives end in field goals. Drives that stall inside the 20 end in field goals (3) instead of touchdowns (7), shaving the total.
🚧 Red-zone walls · Leans Under: fewer points than the total: Both defenses top 30 in red-zone TD rate allowed. Both defenses force field goals near the goal line, so long drives score fewer points.
🏎️ Track meet · Leans Over: more points than the total: Both offenses top 35 in pace and top 60 in EPA per play: lots of snaps, used well. Many snaps used efficiently by both offenses means a high-scoring game.
🎯 Air raid vs soft secondary · Leans Over: more points than the total: An offense top 25 in passing EPA faces a defense bottom 40 in passing EPA allowed. An elite passing game against a weak secondary produces chunk plays and quick scores.
🏁 Both finish drives · Leans Over: more points than the total: Both offenses top 40 in points per scoring opportunity (trips inside the 40). Both offenses turn trips inside the 40 into touchdowns, so scoring chances become points.
🔨 Mismatch · Leans favorite covers the spread: Favorite's offense top 25 in EPA per play vs an underdog defense bottom 40 in EPA allowed. A strong offense against a poor defense tends to keep scoring after the game is decided.
🧹 Complete mismatch · Leans favorite covers the spread: Favorite top 15 in EPA and top 30 in EPA allowed; underdog offense bottom 40 in EPA. EPA drops garbage time, so it holds in blowouts. The favorite is better on both sides and the underdog can't move the ball, so margins run large.
🐶 Dog with a defense · Leans underdog covers the spread: Underdog defense top 30 in EPA allowed vs a favorite offense bottom 50 in EPA. A good underdog defense against a weak favorite offense keeps the game close.
🏠 Home dog, better D · Leans underdog covers the spread: Home underdog whose defense ranks 20+ spots better in EPA allowed than the favorite's. Home field plus the much better defense tends to keep a home underdog inside the number.
🐺 Live dog · Leans underdog wins outright: Underdog ranks 10+ spots better than the favorite in both EPA per play and EPA allowed. The underdog grades better on both offense and defense, so it can win outright.
🎁 Turnover edge · Leans the team with the edge (named on each game) to cover: A defense top 30 in takeaways faces an offense bottom 40 in turnovers. The takeaway side covers. Takeaways flip field position and possessions toward the side that forces them.
🌪️ Havoc edge · Leans the team with the edge (named on each game) to cover: A defense top 25 in havoc rate faces an offense bottom 40 in havoc allowed (TFLs, sacks, PBUs, fumbles). Tackles for loss, sacks and deflections blow up drives and create turnovers for the havoc side.
💨 Sack mismatch · Leans the team with the edge (named on each game) to cover: A pass rush top 25 in sacks per game faces a line bottom 40 in sacks allowed. Sacks kill drives and force long third downs for the team that can't protect.
📍 Field-position edge · Leans the team with the edge (named on each game) to cover: One team top 25 in average starting field position, the other bottom 40. Starting drives closer to the end zone is worth points every possession.
🏆 Finishing edge · Leans the team with the edge (named on each game) to cover: An offense top 25 in points per scoring opportunity faces a defense bottom 40 in points per opportunity allowed. Converting scoring chances into touchdowns, against a defense that can't stop them, widens the margin.
🪨 Run game into a wall · Leans the team with the edge (named on each game) to cover: A run defense top 25 in rushing EPA allowed faces an offense bottom 40 in run stuff rate (stuffed at or behind the line). The defense's side covers. A run game stopped at the line puts the offense behind the chains all day.
📊 Study: Line and situation patterns from the 2022–26 backtest. Strength is the study's own label (Strong, Moderate, Lean); the record is every matching game since 2022.
🧩 2026 combo: Two-factor stat combos found on 2026 games. Held up = still winning in weeks 5–7 after being found on earlier weeks; Weak = it didn't. One season only, small samples.
🔥 Undefeated · 💎 Near-perfect · ⭐ Elite: Found automatically on 2014–2021 (6249 FBS games with a line): every one- and two-part combination (three-part ones were tested too and kept nothing more) of both teams' frozen pregame FBS ranks and matchup edges, the line and total, line movement since the open, our number vs the book and its chips, rest and byes, AP rank, venue, conference, FBS v FCS, kickoff weather and each team's last result and cover. Kept only when it hit 75%+ on enough games that shuffled results rarely do it by luck, beat what the line itself implies, and then held up on 2022–2025 (3634 games it never saw). 🔥 no losses, 💎 90%+; ⭐ 72%+ and 10+ points better than usual on games it never saw (20+ of them, 40+ in all). 2026 is the untouched test record shown on each pill. On shuffled results the whole search finds 0 per run by luck; on the real games it kept 0. Player conditions (🔥 / 💎 / ⭐ on player pills) use the same guards on 2025 player games, tested on 2026. Records only, not advice.
🎯 Each combo: Every combo and Study pattern has its own name (built from its conditions) and record. Choose any number in the 🎯 list, or tap a pill on a card: the board shows the games that match any of them, with every other filter still applied. The link keeps them.
🎯 Hit rate: One bar for every pill with a record (top of Filters). Applies to: All signals, or pick types (Team: Spread / Moneyline / Total by the pill's outcome, Players, Patterns, Study, Combo, Elite). Several types: any one is enough, or All must match, each with its own bar. Edge over typical = record minus what that outcome usually does on those games (the line's implied win chance for a moneyline call). Matching pills move to the top of the card in a ring; the rest are dimmed, on the card and on the game page (its link carries the bar and your 🛠 custom conditions). Filter chips show their record (Study / combo strength and pick chips pooled, player badge types, Watching per outcome); below the bar they dim and move last, and their counts include only pills at the bar.
Sample / Side: Keep only Study and combo badges with that many graded games, pointing that way (Over, Under, Favorite = covers or wins, Underdog = covers or wins). Cards then show only the badges that pass.
🤝 Agrees with our model · 🔗 2+ agree: Agrees: our projection is on the same side against DraftKings (Over and our total above the book's; Favorite covers and our margin above the spread). 2+ agree: at least two badges on the card point the same way (Study, combo, pattern alerts, high/low scoring alerts).
Best record sort: Ranks by the lower end of each badge's 95% range (Wilson), so 219-142 beats 4-0. Records only, not advice. 21+.

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Week 9 at a glance

Week 9 of the 2026 college football season has 56 FBS games on our board. The closest projected matchup is Oklahoma State at Iowa State (0.6-point margin), the highest projected total is Florida Atlantic at North Texas (84.5 points) and the lowest is Wisconsin at Iowa (37.6). 9 games are rated a toss-up (neither side above 58%).

Oklahoma State at Iowa State — We project Oklahoma State 28-27, a 0.6-point margin with 55 total points; Oklahoma State wins 52% of the time.
Kennesaw State at Middle Tennessee — We project Kennesaw State 25-24, a 0.7-point margin with 48.4 total points; Kennesaw State wins 52% of the time.
Washington State at San Diego State — We project San Diego State 27-26, a 0.9-point margin with 52.4 total points; San Diego State wins 52% of the time.
Baylor at UCF — We project UCF 26-25, a 1.2-point margin with 51.4 total points; UCF wins 53% of the time.
South Carolina at Oklahoma — We project Oklahoma 23-21, a 2.1-point margin with 44.9 total points; Oklahoma wins 55% of the time.
Jacksonville State at New Mexico State — We project Jacksonville State 28-25, a 2.3-point margin with 52.9 total points; Jacksonville State wins 56% of the time.

All Week 9 projections · Power ratings for all FBS teams

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

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