Matchup analysis
Our model projects San Diego State 27, Washington State 26 at Snapdragon Stadium in Week 9. That is a genuine toss-up: San Diego State wins about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.3 points and 53 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Washington State is 1-7 against the 33rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 18.9 and allowing 27.6 points per game (-8.7 per game). San Diego State is 3-5 against the 69th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.5 and allowing 36.1 points per game (-9.6 per game).
Washington State's below-average offense (110th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.1 points against an average defense) meets San Diego State's below-average defense (113th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Washington State puts up. San Diego State's below-average offense (97th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.6 points against an average defense) meets Washington State's below-average defense (91st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points San Diego State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Washington State by 21 and San Diego State by 24 about 80% of the time.
San Diego State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Washington State would be favoured by 0.8. The game is on CBSSN.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Washington State / San Diego State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | San Diego State -2.5 | 48.5 | +115 / -135 |
| DraftKings | San Diego State -2.5 | 48.5 | +114 / -135 |
| BetMGM | San Diego State -2.5 | 48.5 | +115 / -135 |
| FanDuel | San Diego State -2.5 | 48.5 | +115 / -138 |
| theScore Bet | San Diego State -2.5 | 48.5 | +105 / -125 |
| Pinnacle | San Diego State -2.5 | 48 | +115 / -132 |
| Bovada | San Diego State -2.5 | 48 | +115 / -135 |
| BetRivers | San Diego State -2.5 | 48.5 | +115 / -141 |
| Hard Rock Bet | San Diego State -2.5 | 48.5 | +115 / -140 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | San Diego State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | San Diego State -1.5 | 53.0 | 53% |
| Market consensus | San Diego State -2.5 | 48.5 | 55% |
| Blended projection | San Diego State -2.5 | 49.7 | 56% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- San Diego State win probability
- model 53% · market (no-vig) 55% · difference -2 pts
- Margin
- model San Diego State -1.3 · market San Diego State -2.5 · difference -1.2 pts (San Diego State view)
- Total
- model 53.0 · market 48.5 · difference +4.5
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies San Diego State 56%.
Model margin is 1.2 pts more toward Washington State than the market.
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Washington State vs San Diego State: stat comparison
| Stat | Washington State | San Diego State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 18.9#129 | 26.5#86 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.6#101 | 36.1#133 |
| Yards per play | 4.76#136 | 5.64#101 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.10#101 | 6.07#97 |
| Rushing yards per game | 140.3#110 | 154.6#95 |
| Net passing yards per game | 164.8#126 | 189.5#108 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 179.0#101 | 190.8#114 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 216.3#89 | 276.8#134 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.13#102 | 1.00#86 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.38#133 | 0.75#85 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00#132 | 2.00#69 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.13#132 | 1.25#30 |
| Stat | Washington State | San Diego State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.07#135 | -0.00#115 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07#83 | +0.12#110 |
| Success rate | 34.8%#136 | 37.1%#128 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.4%#74 | 49.3%#135 |
| Explosive play rate | 7.5%#137 | 11.4%#103 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.0%#98 | 11.0%#49 |
| Havoc rate | 12.0%#116 | 10.8%#130 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.3%#119 | 14.5%#104 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.32#123 | 4.07#73 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.02#92 | 4.37#111 |
| Average starting field position | own 25#138 | own 30#69 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#124 | own 32#122 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.1#88 | 61.0#115 |
| Stat | Washington State | San Diego State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01#109 | +0.03#94 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.13#132 | -0.04#118 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07#89 | +0.10#102 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07#78 | +0.16#104 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.3%#125 | 39.2%#112 |
| Passing success rate | 33.0%#134 | 34.6%#127 |
| Run stuff rate | 22.2%#131 | 20.0%#114 |
| Passing-down success rate | 22.1%#138 | 26.4%#118 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.9%#70 | 37.2%#127 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 30.4%#135 | 33.7%#121 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.3%#77 | 47.1%#128 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 62.5%#67 | 65.4%#51 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 56.3%#52 | 68.6%#114 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Washington State schedule · San Diego State schedule · all Week 9 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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