2026 schedule

Washington State Cougars

1-7SOS #33

2026 season so far

Washington State is 1-7 against the 33rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 18.9 and allowing 27.6 points per game (-8.7 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings Washington State ranks 100th of 139 FBS teams overall — 110th on offense and 91st on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.

Next up: at San Diego State in Week 9. We project Washington State 26, San Diego State 27 — Washington State wins 47% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

at
#17 Washington Huskies
1-0 · SOS #65
Loss 10-24
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Washington by 9.4
Total 49.2
DraftKings
WASH -23.5
Total 51.5
Final Washington by 14. Washington State beat the spread. 34 points — under the 51.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Washington -23.25 (open Washington -21.5) · O/U 51.25 (open 50.5) · ML +1150 / -2500 · Washington 92% no-vig · model vs market -13.8 pts, -19 pct pts (Washington view)
NBC Husky Stadium
at
Kansas State Wildcats
2-0 · SOS #83
Loss 7-34
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Kansas State by 5.1
Total 49.1
DraftKings
KSU -17.5
Total 48.5
Final Kansas State by 27. Kansas State beat the spread. 41 points — under the 48.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Kansas State -17.75 (open Kansas State -17.5) · O/U 48.25 (open 50.25) · ML +662.5 / -1075 · Kansas State 87% no-vig · model vs market -12.6 pts, -24 pct pts (Kansas State view)
TNT Bill Snyder Family Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Big home fav, modest total overStudy · Moderate Over: Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: Record 219 hits, 142 misses (61% hit rate) over 361 graded gamesHome favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: missed (n=361) · Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5
vs
Duquesne Dukes
0-3 · SOS #91
Win 48-7
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Washington State by 38.9
Total 48.7
DraftKings
WSU -38.5
Total 51.5
Final Washington State by 41. Washington State beat the spread. 55 points — over the 51.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Washington State -38.5 (open Washington State -38) · O/U 52 (open 53.75) · model vs market +0.4 pts (Washington State view)
USA Net Martin Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: hit (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
Blowout big fav vs low-total dog over2026 combo · Held up Over: Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: Record 69 hits, 37 misses (65% hit rate) over 106 graded gamesBig favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: hit (n=106; wk 5–7 13-1) · Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14
vs
Arizona Wildcats
3-1 · SOS #78
Loss 24-34
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Arizona by 5.9
Total 50.3
DraftKings
ARIZ -11.5
Total 47.5
Final Arizona by 10. Washington State beat the spread. 58 points — over the 47.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Arizona -11.75 · O/U 47.5 (open 48) · ML -430 / +327.5 · Washington State 22% no-vig · model vs market +5.8 pts, +13 pct pts (Washington State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 57°F, Wind 3 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KPUW)
CBS Martin Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · C. Pinnick QB · Low rush yds 42 (avg 55) · 78% · 35 ✓Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · K. Vorhees RB · Low rush yds 50 (avg 57) · 78% · 39 ✓T. Spivey WR · Low catches 3.6 (avg 4) · 66% · 7 ✗
vs
Fresno State Bulldogs
4-1 · SOS #88
Loss 6-26
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Fresno State by 1
Total 47.6
DraftKings
WSU -2.5
Total 44.5
Final Fresno State by 20. Fresno State beat the spread. 32 points — under the 44.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Washington State -2.25 (open Washington State -0.25) · O/U 45 (open 46) · ML +2.5 / -122.5 · Washington State 53% no-vig · model vs market -3.2 pts, -5 pct pts (Washington State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 57°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KPUW)
USA Net Martin Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: hit
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hit
Well-protected short dogShort dog · YPP + protection · 2014–25 Underdog getting 2.5 or less, better in yards per play and much better at avoiding sacks: Record 109 hits, 80 misses (58% hit rate) over 189 graded games · 2026: 9-3Short dog · YPP + protection: hit Big-yardage short road dogShort road dog · better YPP · 2014–25 Road underdog getting 2.5 or less, much better in yards per play: Record 125 hits, 94 misses (57% hit rate) over 219 graded games · 2026: 9-5Short road dog · better YPP: hit
J. Freeman WR · Low catches 5.1 (avg 6) · 68% · 7 ✗C. Pinnick QB · High pass yds 184 (avg 161) · 58% · 152 ✗J. Mandal QB · High pass yds 208 (avg 197) · 52% · 245 ✓
at
Utah State Aggies
2-4 · SOS #38
Loss 16-17
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Utah State by 4.6
Total 47
DraftKings
USU -4
Total 44.5
Final Utah State by 1. Washington State beat the spread. 33 points — under the 44.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Utah State -4 (open Utah State -4.75) · O/U 44 (open 43.5) · ML +154.5 / -182.5 · Utah State 62% no-vig · model vs market +0.6 pts, -0 pct pts (Utah State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 73°F, Wind 7 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLGU)
CW Maverik Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: hit
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hitUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: missed
G. Brosterhous QB · High pass yds 172 (avg 153) · 58% · 150 ✗C. Pinnick QB · High pass yds 173 (avg 159) · 55% · 156 ✗
at
Oregon State Beavers
5-2 · SOS #86
Loss 30-48
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Oregon State by 14.3
Total 51.7
DraftKings
ORST -18.5
Total 52.5
Final Oregon State by 18. Washington State beat the spread. 78 points — over the 52.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Oregon State -18.5 (open Oregon State -17.25) · O/U 52.25 (open 52.5) · ML +625 / -975 · Oregon State 87% no-vig · model vs market -4.2 pts, -4 pct pts (Oregon State view)
Game-time weather: Mostly clear, 66°F, Wind 6 mph NNW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KCVO)
USA Net Reser Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Blowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded gamesBlowout Alert: missed
3rd-down fav vs red-zone-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 38 hits, 1 misses (97% hit rate) over 39 graded gamesUnderdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: hit (n=39; wk 5–7 21-1) · Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats Unranked 3rd-down fav2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 53 hits, 6 misses (90% hit rate) over 59 graded gamesNeither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: hit (n=59; wk 5–7 26-3) · Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · C. Pinnick QB · Low rush yds 29 (avg 32) · 78% · did not playElite 93-27 (typical 60%) · K. Vorhees RB · Low rush yds 39 (avg 42) · 78% · 16 ✓J. Legree WR · TD threat 82% · 2 ✓
vs
#21 Boise State Broncos
6-1 · SOS #45
Loss 10-31
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Boise State by 17.6
Total 53.8
DraftKings
BOIS -14.5
Total 52.5
Final Boise State by 21. Boise State beat the spread. 41 points — under the 52.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Boise State -14.5 · O/U 52.5 · ML -670 / +475 · Washington State 16% no-vig · model vs market -3.1 pts, -3 pct pts (Washington State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 54°F, Wind 7 mph ESE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KPUW)
USA Net Martin Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hit
Blowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded gamesBlowout Alert: hit
3rd-down fav vs red-zone-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 38 hits, 1 misses (97% hit rate) over 39 graded gamesUnderdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: hit (n=39; wk 5–7 21-1) · Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats Stuff-proof ball-secure fav vs havoc-prone dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite covers: Underdog havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite run stuff rate (least): top-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): top-third FBS rank: Record 28 hits, 5 misses (85% hit rate) over 33 graded gamesUnderdog havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite run stuff rate (least): top-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): top-third FBS rank: hit (n=33; wk 5–7 14-3) · Underdog havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite run stuff rate (least): top-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): top-third FBS rank
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · K. Vorhees RB · Low rush yds 36 (avg 38) · 78% · 8 ✓D. Riley RB · TD threat 70% · 2 ✓S. Gaines RB · TD threat 67% · 1 ✓
at
San Diego State Aztecs
3-5 · SOS #69
Sat, Oct 31, 11:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 26-27 · 47%
Our number
San Diego State by 1
Total 53
DraftKings
SDSU -2.5
Total 48.5
We're 1.5 points higher on Washington State than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: San Diego State -2.5 · O/U 48.5 · ML +115 / -135 · San Diego State 55% no-vig · model vs market -1.5 pts, -2 pct pts (San Diego State view)
Kickoff forecast: Slight chance rain showers, 69°F, Wind 5 mph SW, 17% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
CBSSN Snapdragon Stadium
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
Bounce-back dog vs weak-offense fav underStudy · Moderate Under: Favorite implied 24–31, weak favorite offense, underdog missed the spread last game: Record 273 hits, 188 misses (59% hit rate) over 461 graded games (n=461) · Favorite implied 24–31, weak favorite offense, underdog missed the spread last game Short dog vs leaky reeling favShort dog · fav lost, weak D · 2014–25 Underdog getting 2.5 or less, favorite lost its last game and has a bottom-third defense: Record 155 hits, 114 misses (58% hit rate) over 269 graded games · 2026: 9-10
On-the-number fav vs pass-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank: Record 27 hits, 1 misses (96% hit rate) over 28 graded games (n=28; wk 5–7 15-0) · Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank Mid-total dog vs 3rd-down-leaky fav under2026 combo · Weak Under: Underdog implied 21-27.5 + Favorite third-down rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Home team points allowed: bottom-third FBS rank: Record 25 hits, 7 misses (78% hit rate) over 32 graded games (n=32; wk 5–7 11-2) · Underdog implied 21-27.5 + Favorite third-down rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Home team points allowed: bottom-third FBS rank
S. Saunders QB · High pass yds 193 (avg 150) · 74%
vs
Colorado State Rams
3-4 · SOS #57
Sun, Nov 15, 3:30 AM
Week 11
Proj 34-29 · 62%
Our number
Washington State by 5
Total 63
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
CBSSN Martin Stadium
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games
H. Hejny QB · Low rush yds 42 (avg 53) · 71%D. Robinson RB · TD threat 69%H. Hejny QB · High pass yds 274 (avg 238) · 59%
at
Texas State Bobcats
4-3 · SOS #58
Sat, Nov 21, 11:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 22-36 · 19%
Our number
Texas State by 14
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
USA Net UFCU Stadium
Blowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · K. Vorhees RB · Low rush yds 30 (avg 34) · 75%B. Jackson QB · High pass yds 251 (avg 229) · 56%
vs
TBD
No record
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 31-22 · 70%
Our number
Washington State by 9
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Martin Stadium
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games

Times shown in your local time

Washington State Cougars stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

-7.9

99th in FBS

Adj. offense

21.1

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

29.0

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	18.9	129 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	27.6	101 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	4.76	136 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	6.10	101 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	140.3	110 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	164.8	126 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	179.0	101 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	216.3	89 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	1.13	102 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	0.38	133 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	1.00	132 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	3.13	132 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	-0.07	135 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	+0.07	83 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	34.8%	136 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	41.4%	74 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	7.5%	137 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	13.0%	98 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	12.0%	116 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	15.3%	119 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	3.32	123 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	4.02	92 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 25	138 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 32	124 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	64.1	88 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	+0.01	109 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	-0.13	132 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	+0.07	89 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	+0.07	78 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	37.3%	125 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	33.0%	134 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	22.2%	131 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	22.1%	138 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	29.9%	70 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	30.4%	135 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	39.3%	77 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	62.5%	67 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	56.3%	52 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

Free weekly projections email

One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.