TBD vs Washington State: prediction and projected score

Matchup analysis

Our model projects Washington State 31, TBD 22 at Martin Stadium in Week 13. That is a solid edge: Washington State wins about 70% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9 points and 52.2 combined points.

TBD has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Washington State is 1-7 against the 33rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 18.9 and allowing 27.6 points per game (-8.7 per game).

TBD's middle-of-the-pack offense (71st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.1 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Washington State's below-average defense (91st); that mismatch is where most of TBD's projected points come from. Expect Washington State to find it hard going: TBD's middle-of-the-pack defense (63rd) outranks Washington State's below-average offense (110th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.1 points against an average defense).

College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between TBD by 14 and Washington State by 32 about 80% of the time.

Washington State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Washington State by about 6.9.

More: TBD schedule · Washington State schedule · all Week 13 projections

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.