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Scorecard

How we did this season, and nothing else. Every number below is from 2026 games only.

Original vs new formula, Weeks 1-7

The same 930 finished games graded two ways: the projection we posted before kickoff, and the new formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) re-run with only the games played before each one. ATS and over/under are against DraftKings where its line was recorded.

WinnersMargin MAETotal MAEATS vs DKO/U vs DK
Original76.0%14.3813.2550.6%850 games49.8%858 games
New formula76.7%13.7413.1748.9%848 games50.4%856 games

By week

WinnersMargin MAETotal MAEATS vs DKO/U vs DK
Week 1 original (208)81.3%17.1713.8848.5%167 games41.8%170 games
Week 1 new formula82.7%15.9413.6143.6%165 games46.7%169 games
Week 2 original (131)82.4%15.9013.0046.7%120 games49.6%119 games
Week 2 new formula80.9%15.5412.6641.2%119 games50.0%120 games
Week 3 original (128)78.9%14.1212.6755.9%118 games58.5%118 games
Week 3 new formula85.2%12.3712.7753.4%116 games53.0%117 games
Week 4 original (123)76.4%13.6611.7345.8%118 games51.7%118 games
Week 4 new formula74.8%13.6311.8547.9%117 games51.3%117 games
Week 5 original (114)75.4%13.0113.5358.9%112 games54.4%114 games
Week 5 new formula75.4%12.8413.5259.3%113 games52.6%114 games
Week 6 original (108)64.8%12.5714.5454.9%102 games41.3%104 games
Week 6 new formula63.9%12.4214.5452.9%104 games45.6%103 games
Week 7 original (118)66.9%11.7613.1845.1%113 games53.9%115 games
Week 7 new formula66.9%11.5113.1447.4%114 games54.3%116 games

81%

Winners we called right (848 of 1045)

11.3

Points we were off by, on average

814

Finished games we put a label on

Our number vs reality

Only numbers we posted before kickoff this season · 1045 games.

14.1

Points we were off by, on average

11.3

Points the sportsbooks were off by

  • We picked the winner

    75%

    Happened 785 times out of 1045 games

  • We were closer than the sportsbooks

    41%

    Happened 267 times out of 645 games

  • The sportsbook line later moved our way

    47%

    Happened 153 times out of 329 games

Against the sportsbook line

  • Against the sportsbook line

    50%

    Happened 314 times out of 632 games · 13 exactly on the number

  • Our number said Over

    53%

    Happened 228 times out of 427 games

  • Our number said Under

    49%

    Happened 104 times out of 214 games

Our totals, range by range

  • When we said the total would be Under 45

    36 games · we said 43.0 points on average, they really scored 45.8

    53%

    went OVER our number (19 of 36)

    47%

    went UNDER our number (17 of 36)

  • When we said the total would be 45–48.9

    150 games · we said 47.3 points on average, they really scored 48.7

    54%

    went OVER our number (81 of 150)

    46%

    went UNDER our number (69 of 150)

  • When we said the total would be 49–52.9

    306 games · we said 51.0 points on average, they really scored 51.8

    50%

    went OVER our number (154 of 305)

    50%

    went UNDER our number (151 of 305)

  • When we said the total would be 53–56.9

    276 games · we said 54.9 points on average, they really scored 53.1

    42%

    went OVER our number (116 of 276)

    58%

    went UNDER our number (160 of 276)

  • When we said the total would be 57–60.9

    188 games · we said 58.7 points on average, they really scored 57.8

    50%

    went OVER our number (94 of 188)

    50%

    went UNDER our number (94 of 188)

  • When we said the total would be 61+

    89 games · we said 63.8 points on average, they really scored 62.5

    42%

    went OVER our number (37 of 88)

    58%

    went UNDER our number (51 of 88)

Our margins, range by range

  • When we said the winner would win by Under 3

    173 games · we said 1.5 points, the real margin was 3.4

    59%

    won by MORE than we said (101 of 172)

    41%

    won by LESS, or lost (71 of 172)

  • When we said the winner would win by 3–6.9

    260 games · we said 4.7 points, the real margin was 7.3

    56%

    won by MORE than we said (144 of 259)

    44%

    won by LESS, or lost (115 of 259)

  • When we said the winner would win by 7–9.9

    152 games · we said 8.4 points, the real margin was 8.3

    46%

    won by MORE than we said (69 of 151)

    54%

    won by LESS, or lost (82 of 151)

  • When we said the winner would win by 10–13.9

    163 games · we said 11.8 points, the real margin was 16.6

    56%

    won by MORE than we said (90 of 162)

    44%

    won by LESS, or lost (72 of 162)

  • When we said the winner would win by 14–20.9

    130 games · we said 16.8 points, the real margin was 18.3

    49%

    won by MORE than we said (64 of 130)

    51%

    won by LESS, or lost (66 of 130)

  • When we said the winner would win by 21+

    167 games · we said 31.8 points, the real margin was 35.6

    62%

    won by MORE than we said (102 of 164)

    38%

    won by LESS, or lost (62 of 164)

Picking the winner, by how big a win we said

  • Under 3

    62%

    Happened 108 times out of 173 games

  • 3–6.9

    67%

    Happened 175 times out of 260 games

  • 7–13.9

    75%

    Happened 235 times out of 315 games

  • 14–20.9

    82%

    Happened 107 times out of 130 games

  • 21+

    96%

    Happened 160 times out of 167 games

How often our labels came true

Finished games this season that we gave each label to.

  • Coin flip

    44%

    Happened 72 times out of 163 games

  • Upset alert

    25%

    Happened 51 times out of 203 games

  • Favorite holds

    98%

    Happened 314 times out of 321 games

  • Blowout brewing

    91%

    Happened 174 times out of 191 games

  • Leans high scoring

    48%

    Happened 78 times out of 164 games

  • Leans low scoring

    46%

    Happened 86 times out of 189 games

What the games turned out to be

  • 426

    Blowout

  • 364

    One-score game

  • 197

    Upset

  • 36

    Overtime

  • 159

    Shootout

  • 173

    Low scoring

Game by game

Newest finished games first.

  • Delaware at Western Kentucky35–21
    ExpectedCoin flip

    Week 9

  • Sam Houston at Missouri State3–24
    ExpectedUpset alertFinalBlowoutLow scoring

    Week 9

  • Kennesaw State at Middle Tennessee44–28
    ExpectedUpset alertFinalShootout

    Week 9

  • Jacksonville State at New Mexico State24–0
    ExpectedUpset alertFinalBlowoutLow scoring

    Week 9

  • Middle Tennessee at Florida International26–23
    ExpectedLeans low scoringFinalUpsetOne-score game

    Week 8

  • Missouri State at Delaware38–61
    ExpectedLeans high scoringFinalBlowoutShootout

    Week 8

  • South Alabama at Marshall13–20
    ExpectedCoin flipLeans high scoringFinalUpsetOne-score gameLow scoring

    Week 8

  • New Mexico State at Sam Houston30–24
    ExpectedUpset alertLeans low scoringFinalOne-score game

    Week 8

  • Liberty at Kennesaw State34–6
    ExpectedLeans low scoringFinalBlowout

    Week 8

  • East Carolina at Memphis34–41
    ExpectedUpset alertFinalOne-score gameOvertimeShootout

    Week 8

  • North Carolina Central at Delaware State31–12
    ExpectedCoin flip

    Week 8

  • Duke at Virginia19–16
    ExpectedCoin flipLeans low scoringFinalOne-score gameLow scoring

    Week 8

  • Yale at Pennsylvania21–24
    ExpectedUpset alertFinalUpsetOne-score game

    Week 8

  • Army at Tulsa38–35
    ExpectedUpset alertFinalOne-score gameShootout

    Week 8

  • Air Force at Wyoming14–28
    ExpectedUpset alertLeans low scoringFinalUpset

    Week 8

  • NC State at Stanford28–31
    ExpectedLeans high scoringFinalUpsetOne-score game

    Week 8

  • Pittsburgh at Miami23–52
    ExpectedFavorite holdsFinalBlowoutShootout

    Week 8

  • Indiana at Michigan13–6
    ExpectedLeans low scoringFinalOne-score gameOvertimeLow scoring

    Week 8

  • Texas Tech at Cincinnati24–37
    ExpectedLeans high scoringFinalUpset

    Week 8

  • California at SMU20–59
    ExpectedFavorite holdsFinalBlowoutShootout

    Week 8

  • Rice at Florida Atlantic49–51
    ExpectedUpset alertLeans high scoringFinalOne-score gameShootout

    Week 8

  • Western Michigan at Toledo38–45
    ExpectedCoin flipFinalOne-score gameShootout

    Week 8

  • UAlbany at Rhode Island38–21
    ExpectedUpset alertFinalUpset

    Week 8

  • New Hampshire at Merrimack17–24
    ExpectedLeans low scoringFinalOne-score game

    Week 8

  • Cornell at Brown31–38
    ExpectedCoin flipFinalUpsetOne-score gameOvertime

    Week 8

  • Stonehill at Long Island University18–14
    ExpectedCoin flipLeans low scoringFinalUpsetOne-score gameLow scoring

    Week 8

  • Wagner at Duquesne21–52
    ExpectedFavorite holdsBlowout brewingFinalBlowoutShootout

    Week 8

  • Baylor at Kansas24–25
    ExpectedCoin flipFinalOne-score game

    Week 8

  • Akron at Kent State20–35
    ExpectedCoin flip

    Week 8

  • Miami (OH) at Central Michigan28–27
    ExpectedCoin flipLeans low scoringFinalOne-score game

    Week 8

  • Bucknell at Holy Cross3–34
    ExpectedFavorite holdsLeans low scoringFinalBlowout

    Week 8

  • Lafayette at Fordham31–17
    ExpectedUpset alert

    Week 8

  • Presbyterian at Valparaiso7–24
    ExpectedCoin flipFinalLow scoring

    Week 8

  • Dartmouth at Columbia38–18
    ExpectedUpset alert

    Week 8

  • Norfolk State at South Carolina State7–22
    ExpectedFavorite holdsFinalLow scoring

    Week 8

  • East Tennessee State at VMI38–0
    ExpectedFavorite holdsBlowout brewingFinalBlowout

    Week 8

  • Stony Brook at Bryant27–17
    ExpectedUpset alert

    Week 8

  • Monmouth at Hampton49–13
    ExpectedFavorite holdsBlowout brewingLeans high scoringFinalBlowout

    Week 8

  • North Dakota at South Dakota23–26
    ExpectedCoin flipFinalOne-score gameOvertime

    Week 8

  • Northern Iowa at Southern Illinois17–20
    ExpectedUpset alertFinalOne-score game

    Week 8