Trends
What actually happened in 6,550 games across 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Across all of them the underdog won 27% of the time and the average game scored 53 combined points.
Upsets by week
How often the underdog won, week by week.
- Week 126%
762 games
- Week 221%
526 games
- Week 324%
496 games
- Week 427%
477 games
- Week 527%
451 games
- Week 627%
427 games
- Week 730%
438 games
- Week 831%
446 games
- Week 927%
450 games
- Week 1031%
462 games
- Week 1128%
480 games
- Week 1226%
489 games
- Week 1326%
397 games
- Week 1424%
196 games
Scoring by week
Average combined points. Higher bars are the shootout weeks.
- Week 153.0 pts
762 games
- Week 253.5 pts
526 games
- Week 353.6 pts
496 games
- Week 456.0 pts
477 games
- Week 553.6 pts
451 games
- Week 654.0 pts
427 games
- Week 752.9 pts
438 games
- Week 851.7 pts
446 games
- Week 953.5 pts
450 games
- Week 1053.3 pts
462 games
- Week 1151.6 pts
480 games
- Week 1252.2 pts
489 games
- Week 1355.8 pts
397 games
- Week 1454.3 pts
196 games
Upsets by how big the favorite was
Bigger favorites lose less often — this is the shape behind the tags.
- Toss-up (0-3)48%
1174 games
- Small (3-7)37%
1922 games
- Clear (7-14)20%
2063 games
- Big (14-21)8%
770 games
- Huge (21+)2%
621 games
Upsets by situation
Neutral-site games are the wild ones; games against smaller schools almost never flip.
- Home team hosting26%
6239 games
- Neutral site40%
311 games
- Both FBS29%
6065 games
- Vs smaller school5%
485 games
- Short rest (under 6 days)27%
75 games
- Extra rest (10+ days)29%
1390 games
Patterns that held up
We tested 32 combinations of two game factors on 2022, 2023, 2024, then checked the survivors against a season they never saw. Only these beat the formula on that unseen season.
home underdog + road favorite by 7+
The underdog won 14% of these, where the formula expected 20% — so upsets here are rarer than they look.
511 games tested · confirmed on 176 unseen games
road favorite by 7+
The underdog won 14% of these, where the formula expected 20% — so upsets here are rarer than they look.
511 games tested · confirmed on 176 unseen games
These are notes, not picks. Projections on the rest of the app are unchanged.