About HoopVantage

HoopVantage is an independent, data-first college football projection model built by Dixon App Studio. Every FBS game gets a projected score, margin, total and win probability, and every projection is frozen before kickoff so it can be graded honestly afterwards on the scorecard.

The model

1. Reduce every snap of every FBS game to efficiency stats: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives and field position, with garbage time removed.
2. Solve opponent-adjusted offense and defense ratings for points, EPA per play and success rate, starting each season from a preseason prior built from the last two seasons, returning production and roster talent.
3. Turn the rating gaps, home field, rest and division into a projected margin and total, and the margin into a calibrated win probability that is wider early in the season.

How accurate is it?

On three held-out seasons (2023–2025, 4,953 games, each projected only from earlier weeks) the model picked the winner 74.6% of the time, missed the final margin by 12.8 points on average and the total by 12.8, and its win probabilities landed within about two points of reality in every bucket. The market line is still more accurate (11.9 points on the same games), and we say so. Full numbers, the calibration table and this season's graded results are on the methodology & track record page.

Data sources

Play-by-play, EPA, roster talent and returning production come from the open SportsDataverse (cfbfastR) data releases; we publish our own aggregates. Final scores come from public scoreboard feeds. Team names and logos belong to their schools. We are not affiliated with the NCAA, any conference, school, media company or sportsbook.

What the numbers are for

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

We don't publish picks, "locks" or odds, and we don't link to sportsbooks. If gambling stops being fun, the National Problem Gambling Helpline is 1-800-522-4700 (ncpgambling.org).