Week 13 College Football Projections (2026)

Updated Oct 29, 2026

Week 13 of the 2026 college football season has 69 FBS games on our board. The closest projected matchup is Toledo at Ohio (0.4-point margin), the highest projected total is Mississippi State at Ole Miss (66.2 points) and the lowest is Minnesota at Wisconsin (33). 17 games are rated a toss-up (neither side above 58%).

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Every FBS game

CSV download · Sports Pro

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

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Tue, Nov 24 · TBD
Miami (OH)20
Western Michigan29
We project Western Michigan 29-20, a 9.6-point margin with 48.8 total points; Western Michigan wins 74% of the time.
Our number
Western Michigan by 9.6
Total 48.8
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Western Michigan 74% · total 48.8Full preview →
Tue, Nov 24, 7:00 PM EST
Kent State20
Eastern Michigan30
We project Eastern Michigan 30-20, a 9.6-point margin with 50 total points; Eastern Michigan wins 74% of the time.
Our number
Eastern Michigan by 9.6
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Eastern Michigan 74% · total 50Full preview →
Thu, Nov 26, 8:00 PM ESTESPN
TCU18
Texas Tech30
We project Texas Tech 30-18, a 11.5-point margin with 47.7 total points; Texas Tech wins 77% of the time.
Our number
Texas Tech by 11.5
Total 47.7
DraftKings
Texas Tech -16.5
Total 55.5
We're 5 points higher on TCU than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Texas Tech -16.5 · O/U 55.5 · ML +625 / -950 · Texas Tech 87% no-vig · model vs market -5.0 pts, -9 pct pts (Texas Tech view)
Texas Tech 77% · total 47.7Full preview →
Fri, Nov 27 · TBD
Florida Atlantic27
East Carolina36
We project East Carolina 36-27, a 9.1-point margin with 63.3 total points; East Carolina wins 72% of the time.
Our number
East Carolina by 9.1
Total 63.3
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
East Carolina 72% · total 63.3Full preview →
Fri, Nov 27 · TBDESPN
Temple22
Memphis36
We project Memphis 36-22, a 13.9-point margin with 57.7 total points; Memphis wins 82% of the time.
Our number
Memphis by 13.9
Total 57.7
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Memphis 82% · total 57.7Full preview →
Fri, Nov 27 · TBD
Tulane18
South Florida24
We project South Florida 24-18, a 6.5-point margin with 41.8 total points; South Florida wins 66% of the time.
Our number
South Florida by 6.5
Total 41.8
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
South Florida 66% · total 41.8Full preview →
Fri, Nov 27, 12:00 PM ESTABC
Mississippi State26
Ole Miss41
We project Ole Miss 41-26, a 15-point margin with 66.2 total points; Ole Miss wins 84% of the time.
Our number
Ole Miss by 15
Total 66.2
DraftKings
Ole Miss -14.5
Total 57.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Ole Miss -14.5 · O/U 57.5 (open 56.5) · ML +440 / -600 · Ole Miss 82% no-vig · model vs market +0.5 pts, +2 pct pts (Ole Miss view)
Ole Miss 84% · total 66.2Full preview →
Fri, Nov 27, 12:00 PM ESTCBS
Nebraska22
Iowa24
We project Iowa 24-22, a 2.8-point margin with 46.2 total points; Iowa wins 57% of the time.
Our number
Iowa by 2.8
Total 46.2
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Iowa 57% · total 46.2Full preview →
Fri, Nov 27, 12:00 PM EST
Buffalo27
Akron25
We project Buffalo 27-25, a 2.7-point margin with 52 total points; Buffalo wins 57% of the time.
Our number
Buffalo by 2.7
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Buffalo 57% · total 52Full preview →
Fri, Nov 27, 12:00 PM EST
Toledo27
Ohio28
We project Ohio 28-27, a 0.4-point margin with 55.1 total points; Ohio wins 51% of the time.
Our number
dead even
Total 55.1
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Ohio 51% · total 55.1Full preview →
Fri, Nov 27, 3:00 PM ESTESPN+
App State30
South Alabama34
We project South Alabama 34-30, a 4.2-point margin with 63.4 total points; South Alabama wins 61% of the time.
Our number
South Alabama by 4.2
Total 63.4
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
South Alabama 61% · total 63.4Full preview →
Fri, Nov 27, 3:30 PM ESTABC
Florida31
Florida State31
We project Florida 31-31, a 0.5-point margin with 61.5 total points; Florida wins 51% of the time.
Our number
Florida by 0.5
Total 61.5
DraftKings
Florida -4.5
Total 52.5
We're 4 points higher on Florida State than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Florida -4.5 · O/U 52.5 · ML -205 / +170 · Florida State 36% no-vig · model vs market +4.0 pts, +13 pct pts (Florida State view)
Florida 51% · total 61.5Full preview →
Fri, Nov 27, 3:30 PM ESTCBSSN
North Dakota State29
San José State15
We project North Dakota State 29-15, a 14.8-point margin with 44 total points; North Dakota State wins 83% of the time.
Our number
North Dakota State by 14.8
Total 44
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
North Dakota State 83% · total 44Full preview →
Fri, Nov 27, 7:30 PM ESTABC
Texas25
Texas A&M22
We project Texas 25-22, a 3.1-point margin with 46.7 total points; Texas wins 58% of the time.
Our number
Texas by 3.1
Total 46.7
DraftKings
Texas -2.5
Total 53.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Texas -2.5 · O/U 53.5 · ML -142 / +120 · Texas A&M 44% no-vig · model vs market -0.6 pts, -2 pct pts (Texas A&M view)
Texas 58% · total 46.7Full preview →
Fri, Nov 27, 7:30 PM ESTNBC
Minnesota12
Wisconsin20
We project Wisconsin 20-12, a 8-point margin with 33 total points; Wisconsin wins 70% of the time.
Our number
Wisconsin by 8
Total 33
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Wisconsin 70% · total 33Full preview →
Fri, Nov 27, 9:00 PM ESTFox
West Virginia24
Utah42
We project Utah 42-24, a 17.2-point margin with 66.1 total points; Utah wins 87% of the time.
Our number
Utah by 17.2
Total 66.1
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Utah 87% · total 66.1Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Boston College11
Miami44
We project Miami 44-11, a 33-point margin with 54.8 total points; Miami wins 98% of the time.
Our number
Miami by 33
Total 54.8
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Miami 98% · total 54.8Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Georgia Tech15
Georgia44
We project Georgia 44-15, a 28.8-point margin with 58.9 total points; Georgia wins 97% of the time.
Our number
Georgia by 28.8
Total 58.9
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Georgia 97% · total 58.9Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Purdue11
Indiana42
We project Indiana 42-11, a 30.3-point margin with 53.1 total points; Indiana wins 98% of the time.
Our number
Indiana by 30.3
Total 53.1
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Indiana 98% · total 53.1Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Notre Dame42
Syracuse16
We project Notre Dame 42-16, a 26.5-point margin with 57.7 total points; Notre Dame wins 96% of the time.
Our number
Notre Dame by 26.5
Total 57.7
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Notre Dame 96% · total 57.7Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
USC28
UCLA27
We project USC 28-27, a 1.3-point margin with 54.9 total points; USC wins 53% of the time.
Our number
USC by 1.3
Total 54.9
DraftKings
USC -10.5
Total 55.5
We're 9.2 points higher on UCLA than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: USC -10.5 · O/U 55.5 · ML -470 / +360 · UCLA 21% no-vig · model vs market +9.2 pts, +26 pct pts (UCLA view)
USC 53% · total 54.9Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Cincinnati21
BYU35
We project BYU 35-21, a 13.8-point margin with 55.7 total points; BYU wins 82% of the time.
Our number
BYU by 13.8
Total 55.7
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
BYU 82% · total 55.7Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Louisville28
Kentucky29
We project Kentucky 29-28, a 0.8-point margin with 57.6 total points; Kentucky wins 52% of the time.
Our number
Kentucky by 0.8
Total 57.6
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kentucky 52% · total 57.6Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Auburn16
Alabama35
We project Alabama 35-16, a 19.1-point margin with 51.8 total points; Alabama wins 89% of the time.
Our number
Alabama by 19.1
Total 51.8
DraftKings
Alabama -10
Total 52.5
We're 9.1 points higher on Alabama than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Alabama -10 · O/U 52.5 (open 53.5) · ML +330 / -425 · Alabama 78% no-vig · model vs market +9.1 pts, +12 pct pts (Alabama view)
Alabama 89% · total 51.8Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Duke21
Wake Forest30
We project Wake Forest 30-21, a 8.7-point margin with 51.1 total points; Wake Forest wins 71% of the time.
Our number
Wake Forest by 8.7
Total 51.1
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Wake Forest 71% · total 51.1Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
LSU37
Arkansas16
We project LSU 37-16, a 20.9-point margin with 52.7 total points; LSU wins 91% of the time.
Our number
LSU by 20.9
Total 52.7
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
LSU 91% · total 52.7Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Tennessee34
Vanderbilt19
We project Tennessee 34-19, a 15.2-point margin with 53 total points; Tennessee wins 84% of the time.
Our number
Tennessee by 15.2
Total 53
DraftKings
Tennessee -3
Total 57.5
We're 12.2 points higher on Tennessee than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Tennessee -3 · O/U 57.5 · ML -162 / +136 · Vanderbilt 41% no-vig · model vs market -12.2 pts, -25 pct pts (Vanderbilt view)
Tennessee 84% · total 53Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Baylor23
Houston30
We project Houston 30-23, a 6.9-point margin with 53.6 total points; Houston wins 68% of the time.
Our number
Houston by 6.9
Total 53.6
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Houston 68% · total 53.6Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
SMU37
Stanford19
We project SMU 37-19, a 18.3-point margin with 56.3 total points; SMU wins 88% of the time.
Our number
SMU by 18.3
Total 56.3
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
SMU 88% · total 56.3Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Illinois24
Northwestern29
We project Northwestern 29-24, a 4.6-point margin with 52.5 total points; Northwestern wins 62% of the time.
Our number
Northwestern by 4.6
Total 52.5
DraftKings
Illinois -3.5
Total 52.5
We're 8.1 points higher on Northwestern than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Illinois -3.5 · O/U 52.5 · ML -175 / +145 · Northwestern 39% no-vig · model vs market +8.1 pts, +23 pct pts (Northwestern view)
Northwestern 62% · total 52.5Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Arizona State20
Arizona34
We project Arizona 34-20, a 14-point margin with 53.5 total points; Arizona wins 82% of the time.
Our number
Arizona by 14
Total 53.5
DraftKings
Arizona -4.5
Total 52.5
We're 9.5 points higher on Arizona than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Arizona -4.5 · O/U 52.5 · ML +180 / -218 · Arizona 66% no-vig · model vs market +9.5 pts, +16 pct pts (Arizona view)
Arizona 82% · total 53.5Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Oklahoma19
Missouri20
We project Missouri 20-19, a 0.7-point margin with 38.5 total points; Missouri wins 52% of the time.
Our number
Missouri by 0.7
Total 38.5
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Missouri 52% · total 38.5Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Kansas28
Oklahoma State30
We project Oklahoma State 30-28, a 1.9-point margin with 58.8 total points; Oklahoma State wins 55% of the time.
Our number
Oklahoma State by 1.9
Total 58.8
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Oklahoma State 55% · total 58.8Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
South Carolina28
Clemson22
We project South Carolina 28-22, a 6.1-point margin with 49.3 total points; South Carolina wins 65% of the time.
Our number
South Carolina by 6.1
Total 49.3
DraftKings
Clemson -3
Total 53.5
We're 9.1 points higher on South Carolina than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Clemson -3 · O/U 53.5 · ML +136 / -162 · Clemson 59% no-vig · model vs market -9.1 pts, -25 pct pts (Clemson view)
South Carolina 65% · total 49.3Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
UCF29
Colorado22
We project UCF 29-22, a 6.8-point margin with 51.2 total points; UCF wins 67% of the time.
Our number
UCF by 6.8
Total 51.2
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
UCF 67% · total 51.2Full preview →

Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Kansas State28
Iowa State26
We project Kansas State 28-26, a 2.1-point margin with 53.1 total points; Kansas State wins 56% of the time.
Our number
Kansas State by 2.1
Total 53.1
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kansas State 56% · total 53.1Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
NC State26
North Carolina30
We project North Carolina 30-26, a 4-point margin with 55.7 total points; North Carolina wins 60% of the time.
Our number
North Carolina by 4
Total 55.7
DraftKings
NC State -1.5
Total 55.5
We're 5.5 points higher on North Carolina than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: NC State -1.5 · O/U 55.5 · ML -118 / -102 · North Carolina 48% no-vig · model vs market +5.5 pts, +12 pct pts (North Carolina view)
North Carolina 60% · total 55.7Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Pittsburgh36
California20
We project Pittsburgh 36-20, a 16.3-point margin with 56.3 total points; Pittsburgh wins 86% of the time.
Our number
Pittsburgh by 16.3
Total 56.3
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Pittsburgh 86% · total 56.3Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Virginia21
Virginia Tech27
We project Virginia Tech 27-21, a 5.4-point margin with 48 total points; Virginia Tech wins 64% of the time.
Our number
Virginia Tech by 5.4
Total 48
DraftKings
Virginia Tech -1.5
Total 53.5
We're 3.9 points higher on Virginia Tech than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Virginia Tech -1.5 · O/U 53.5 · ML +105 / -125 · Virginia Tech 53% no-vig · model vs market +3.9 pts, +11 pct pts (Virginia Tech view)
Virginia Tech 64% · total 48Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Penn State31
Maryland24
We project Penn State 31-24, a 7.1-point margin with 54.3 total points; Penn State wins 68% of the time.
Our number
Penn State by 7.1
Total 54.3
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Penn State 68% · total 54.3Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Washington19
Oregon34
We project Oregon 34-19, a 15-point margin with 52.4 total points; Oregon wins 84% of the time.
Our number
Oregon by 15
Total 52.4
DraftKings
Oregon -15.5
Total 54.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Oregon -15.5 · O/U 54.5 · ML +500 / -700 · Oregon 84% no-vig · model vs market -0.5 pts, -0 pct pts (Oregon view)
Oregon 84% · total 52.4Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Michigan State28
Rutgers29
We project Rutgers 29-28, a 1.4-point margin with 56.5 total points; Rutgers wins 54% of the time.
Our number
Rutgers by 1.4
Total 56.5
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Rutgers 54% · total 56.5Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
TBD30
Colorado State36
We project Colorado State 36-30, a 6.2-point margin with 65.7 total points; Colorado State wins 64% of the time.
Our number
Colorado State by 6.2
Total 65.7
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Colorado State 64% · total 65.7Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
TBD18
Fresno State34
We project Fresno State 34-18, a 16.7-point margin with 52 total points; Fresno State wins 83% of the time.
Our number
Fresno State by 16.7
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Fresno State 83% · total 52Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
TBD19
Utah State31
We project Utah State 31-19, a 11.9-point margin with 50.4 total points; Utah State wins 76% of the time.
Our number
Utah State by 11.9
Total 50.4
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Utah State 76% · total 50.4Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
TBD22
Washington State31
We project Washington State 31-22, a 9-point margin with 52.2 total points; Washington State wins 70% of the time.
Our number
Washington State by 9
Total 52.2
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Washington State 70% · total 52.2Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
UConn25
Wyoming22
We project UConn 25-22, a 3.4-point margin with 47.4 total points; UConn wins 59% of the time.
Our number
UConn by 3.4
Total 47.4
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
UConn 59% · total 47.4Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Tulsa25
UTSA35
We project UTSA 35-25, a 9.8-point margin with 60.1 total points; UTSA wins 74% of the time.
Our number
UTSA by 9.8
Total 60.1
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
UTSA 74% · total 60.1Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Army32
Rice21
We project Army 32-21, a 11.2-point margin with 52.2 total points; Army wins 77% of the time.
Our number
Army by 11.2
Total 52.2
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Army 77% · total 52.2Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Navy36
Charlotte19
We project Navy 36-19, a 17.8-point margin with 55.2 total points; Navy wins 88% of the time.
Our number
Navy by 17.8
Total 55.2
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Navy 88% · total 55.2Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
UAB24
North Texas41
We project North Texas 41-24, a 17.6-point margin with 65.1 total points; North Texas wins 88% of the time.
Our number
North Texas by 17.6
Total 65.1
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
North Texas 88% · total 65.1Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28 · TBDMW+
UTEP23
Northern Illinois30
We project Northern Illinois 30-23, a 6.9-point margin with 53.7 total points; Northern Illinois wins 67% of the time.
Our number
Northern Illinois by 6.9
Total 53.7
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Northern Illinois 67% · total 53.7Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Coastal Carolina17
James Madison39
We project James Madison 39-17, a 21.2-point margin with 56.2 total points; James Madison wins 92% of the time.
Our number
James Madison by 21.2
Total 56.2
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
James Madison 92% · total 56.2Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Louisiana Tech26
Georgia Southern25
We project Louisiana Tech 26-25, a 1.9-point margin with 51.1 total points; Louisiana Tech wins 55% of the time.
Our number
Louisiana Tech by 1.9
Total 51.1
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Louisiana Tech 55% · total 51.1Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Louisiana30
Georgia State29
We project Louisiana 30-29, a 1-point margin with 58.2 total points; Louisiana wins 53% of the time.
Our number
Louisiana by 1
Total 58.2
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Louisiana 53% · total 58.2Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Marshall29
UL Monroe24
We project Marshall 29-24, a 5.2-point margin with 52.6 total points; Marshall wins 63% of the time.
Our number
Marshall by 5.2
Total 52.6
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Marshall 63% · total 52.6Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Southern Miss22
Old Dominion26
We project Old Dominion 26-22, a 3.7-point margin with 47.9 total points; Old Dominion wins 60% of the time.
Our number
Old Dominion by 3.7
Total 47.9
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Old Dominion 60% · total 47.9Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28, 12:00 PM ESTFox
Michigan12
Ohio State34
We project Ohio State 34-12, a 22.3-point margin with 45.5 total points; Ohio State wins 93% of the time.
Our number
Ohio State by 22.3
Total 45.5
DraftKings
Ohio State -13.5
Total 46.5
We're 8.8 points higher on Ohio State than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Ohio State -13.5 · O/U 46.5 · ML +425 / -575 · Ohio State 82% no-vig · model vs market +8.8 pts, +11 pct pts (Ohio State view)
Ohio State 93% · total 45.5Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28, 12:00 PM EST
Central Michigan27
Ball State24
We project Central Michigan 27-24, a 2.6-point margin with 51 total points; Central Michigan wins 57% of the time.
Our number
Central Michigan by 2.6
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Central Michigan 57% · total 51Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28, 12:00 PM EST
Massachusetts20
Bowling Green23
We project Bowling Green 23-20, a 3.8-point margin with 42.9 total points; Bowling Green wins 60% of the time.
Our number
Bowling Green by 3.8
Total 42.9
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Bowling Green 60% · total 42.9Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28, 1:00 PM EST
Kennesaw State24
Western Kentucky26
We project Western Kentucky 26-24, a 2.3-point margin with 49.8 total points; Western Kentucky wins 56% of the time.
Our number
Western Kentucky by 2.3
Total 49.8
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Western Kentucky 56% · total 49.8Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28, 2:00 PM EST
Liberty33
Missouri State18
We project Liberty 33-18, a 14.5-point margin with 51.3 total points; Liberty wins 83% of the time.
Our number
Liberty by 14.5
Total 51.3
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Liberty 83% · total 51.3Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28, 2:00 PM EST
Sam Houston13
Florida International25
We project Florida International 25-13, a 12-point margin with 38.4 total points; Florida International wins 78% of the time.
Our number
Florida International by 12
Total 38.4
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Florida International 78% · total 38.4Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28, 2:00 PM EST
New Mexico State26
Middle Tennessee24
We project New Mexico State 26-24, a 2.1-point margin with 50.6 total points; New Mexico State wins 56% of the time.
Our number
New Mexico State by 2.1
Total 50.6
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
New Mexico State 56% · total 50.6Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28, 3:00 PM EST
Troy25
Arkansas State28
We project Arkansas State 28-25, a 2.7-point margin with 53 total points; Arkansas State wins 57% of the time.
Our number
Arkansas State by 2.7
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Arkansas State 57% · total 53Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28, 3:30 PM ESTCBSSN
Jacksonville State30
Delaware27
We project Jacksonville State 30-27, a 2.3-point margin with 57.3 total points; Jacksonville State wins 56% of the time.
Our number
Jacksonville State by 2.3
Total 57.3
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Jacksonville State 56% · total 57.3Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28, 4:30 PM ESTCW
Air Force20
New Mexico32
We project New Mexico 32-20, a 11.8-point margin with 52.4 total points; New Mexico wins 78% of the time.
Our number
New Mexico by 11.8
Total 52.4
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
New Mexico 78% · total 52.4Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28, 9:00 PM ESTCBSSN
Nevada21
UNLV28
We project UNLV 28-21, a 7.5-point margin with 49.5 total points; UNLV wins 69% of the time.
Our number
UNLV by 7.5
Total 49.5
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
UNLV 69% · total 49.5Full preview →
Sat, Nov 28, 11:00 PM ESTMW+
Sacramento State17
Hawai'i34
We project Hawai'i 34-17, a 17-point margin with 50.6 total points; Hawai'i wins 87% of the time.
Our number
Hawai'i by 17
Total 50.6
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Hawai'i 87% · total 50.6Full preview →

How these numbers are made

Each team gets opponent-adjusted offense and defense ratings for points, expected points added per play and success rate, built from every snap of play-by-play with garbage time removed. Early in the season the ratings lean on a preseason prior (last two seasons, returning production, roster talent); every game played shifts them toward this year. A fitted model turns the rating gaps plus home field (about 2 points, more in the opening weeks) and rest into a margin and a total, and the margin into a calibrated win probability. See the methodology and track record and the season scorecard for how the model has actually done.

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