Matchup analysis
Our model projects Western Michigan 29, Miami (OH) 20 at Waldo Stadium in Week 13. That is a solid edge: Western Michigan wins about 74% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.6 points and 48.8 combined points.
Miami (OH) is 5-3 against the 121st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27 and allowing 25.8 points per game (+1.2 per game). Western Michigan is 5-3 against the 92nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.6 and allowing 20.4 points per game (+6.2 per game).
Western Michigan's middle-of-the-pack defense (60th) should limit Miami (OH)'s below-average offense (103rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22 points against an average defense). Western Michigan's middle-of-the-pack offense (78th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.6 points against an average defense) meets Miami (OH)'s below-average defense (92nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Western Michigan puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Miami (OH) by 13 and Western Michigan by 32 about 80% of the time.
Western Michigan gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Western Michigan by about 7.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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Miami (OH) vs Western Michigan: stat comparison
| Stat | Miami (OH) | Western Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.0#80 | 26.6#85 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.8#88 | 20.4#37 |
| Yards per play | 6.51#33 | 5.60#108 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.94#90 | 5.30#48 |
| Rushing yards per game | 157.1#88 | 174.4#59 |
| Net passing yards per game | 218.8#77 | 159.4#127 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 108.0#11 | 162.0#83 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 267.6#131 | 205.0#65 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.75#55 | 0.50#28 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.88#65 | 0.63#108 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#75 | 2.38#48 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.50#115 | 1.38#43 |
| Stat | Miami (OH) | Western Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.10#60 | +0.09#63 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06#78 | +0.04#67 |
| Success rate | 40.5%#104 | 44.1%#56 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.7%#68 | 42.5%#87 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.7%#27 | 11.6%#99 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.4%#14 | 10.6%#38 |
| Havoc rate | 13.3%#88 | 13.3%#89 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.1%#96 | 10.8%#24 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.97#84 | 4.45#40 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.95#86 | 3.61#49 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#26 | own 30#67 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#19 | own 27#34 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 57.8#135 | 59.6#123 |
| Stat | Miami (OH) | Western Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.06#80 | +0.11#49 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.13#55 | +0.05#84 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.04#34 | -0.00#55 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.14#98 | +0.09#88 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.0%#91 | 43.1%#83 |
| Passing success rate | 39.9%#91 | 41.1%#75 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.3%#88 | 14.4%#27 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.4%#80 | 31.6%#63 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.9%#110 | 33.5%#116 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.0%#100 | 41.4%#69 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.9%#110 | 39.3%#76 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 55.2%#105 | 71.1%#31 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.9%#88 | 63.3%#91 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Miami (OH) schedule · Western Michigan schedule · all Week 13 projections
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