2026 schedule

Western Michigan Broncos

5-3SOS #91

2026 season so far

Western Michigan is 5-3 against the 91st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.6 and allowing 20.4 points per game (+6.2 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings Western Michigan ranks 69th of 139 FBS teams overall — 78th on offense and 60th on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.

Next up: vs Bowling Green in Week 9. We project Western Michigan 31, Bowling Green 14 — Western Michigan wins 87% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

at
#16 Michigan Wolverines
1-0 · SOS #15
Loss 12-13
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Michigan by 8
Total 48.4
DraftKings
MICH -27.5
Total 50.5
Final Michigan by 1. Western Michigan beat the spread. 25 points — under the 50.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Michigan -27.5 (open Michigan -26.5) · O/U 50 (open 47.5) · ML +1650 / -6750 · Michigan 94% no-vig · model vs market -19.5 pts, -24 pct pts (Michigan view)
NBC Michigan Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: missed (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
vs
Monmouth Hawks
1-2 · SOS #101
Win 49-14
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Western Michigan by 34.3
Total 51.3
DraftKings
WMU -29.5
Total 54.5
Final Western Michigan by 35. Western Michigan beat the spread. 63 points — over the 54.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Western Michigan -29 (open Western Michigan -26.5) · O/U 54.5 (open 52.5) · ML +1800 / -5000 · Western Michigan 95% no-vig · model vs market +5.3 pts, +4 pct pts (Western Michigan view)
ESPN+ Waldo Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: hit (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
Blowout big fav vs low-total dog over2026 combo · Held up Over: Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: Record 69 hits, 37 misses (65% hit rate) over 106 graded gamesBig favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: hit (n=106; wk 5–7 13-1) · Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14
at
Rice Owls
1-2 · SOS #66
Win 28-21
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Rice by 1.4
Total 47.2
DraftKings
WMU -8.5
Total 43.5
Final Western Michigan by 7. Rice beat the spread. 49 points — over the 43.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Western Michigan -8.5 (open Western Michigan -11.75) · O/U 43.5 (open 44.75) · ML -435 / +305 · Rice 23% no-vig · model vs market +9.9 pts, +30 pct pts (Rice view)
ESPN+ First Community Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missed
vs
Boise State Broncos
3-1 · SOS #45
Loss 7-32
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Boise State by 1.3
Total 52.9
DraftKings
BOIS -8.5
Total 50.5
Final Boise State by 25. Boise State beat the spread. 39 points — under the 50.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Boise State -8.5 (open Boise State -7.25) · O/U 50.5 (open 48) · ML -289 / +235 · Western Michigan 29% no-vig · model vs market +7.2 pts, +18 pct pts (Western Michigan view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 70°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KAZO)
ESPN2 Waldo Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games
D. Riley RB · Low rush yds 119 (avg 151) · 71% · 138 ✓A. Chenault WR · Low catches 3.9 (avg 4.3) · 65% · did not playR. Jones WR · Low catches 4.6 (avg 5) · 65% · 3 ✓
at
Buffalo Bulls
2-3 · SOS #127
Win 20-17
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Western Michigan by 14
Total 51.2
DraftKings
WMU -13.5
Total 46.5
Final Western Michigan by 3. Buffalo beat the spread. 37 points — under the 46.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Western Michigan -13.25 (open Western Michigan -15.75) · O/U 46.25 (open 50) · ML -592.5 / +425 · Buffalo 18% no-vig · model vs market -0.7 pts, -0 pct pts (Buffalo view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 63°F, Wind 11 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBUF)
ESPN+ Broadview Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Bounce-back home dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: Record 284 hits, 203 misses (58% hit rate) over 487 graded gamesHome underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: hit (n=487) · Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · M. Burch RB · Low rush yds 68 (avg 62) · 75% · 106 ✗C. Morrow WR · TD threat 67% · 0 ✗
vs
Kent State Golden Flashes
2-4 · SOS #68
Win 38-7
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Western Michigan by 19.8
Total 48
DraftKings
WMU -13.5
Total 43.5
Final Western Michigan by 31. Western Michigan beat the spread. 45 points — over the 43.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Western Michigan -13.75 · O/U 43.5 (open 44.5) · ML +437.5 / -612.5 · Western Michigan 82% no-vig · model vs market +6.0 pts, +8 pct pts (Western Michigan view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 73°F, Wind 7 mph S.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KAZO)
ESPN+ Waldo Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missed
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: missed
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · D. DeShields QB · Low rush yds 33 (avg 37) · 78% · -6 ✓Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · M. King RB · Low rush yds 36 (avg 33) · 78% · 36 ✗Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · B. White RB · Low rush yds 31 (avg 25) · 78% · 28 ✗
at
Central Michigan Chippewas
3-4 · SOS #71
Win 21-14
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Western Michigan by 8.7
Total 45.7
DraftKings
WMU -7.5
Total 42.5
Final Western Michigan by 7. Central Michigan beat the spread. 35 points — under the 42.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Western Michigan -7.5 (open Western Michigan -7) · O/U 42.5 (open 42.75) · ML -282.5 / +230 · Central Michigan 29% no-vig · model vs market -1.2 pts, -1 pct pts (Central Michigan view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 55°F, Wind 10 mph W.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMOP)
ESPN+ Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: hit
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hit
Slow-pace tagged dog2026 combo · Weak Underdog wins: Our total 45-52 + Any pattern tag + Both teams' pace combined: bottom third: Record 21 hits, 16 misses (57% hit rate) over 37 graded gamesOur total 45-52 + Any pattern tag + Both teams' pace combined: bottom third: missed (n=37; wk 5–7 10-6) · Our total 45-52 + Any pattern tag + Both teams' pace combined: bottom third
B. Lowry QB · High pass yds 185 (avg 166) · 56% · 48 ✗
at
Toledo Rockets
6-2 · SOS #122
Loss 38-45
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Toledo by 1
Total 50.4
DraftKings
TOL -2.5
Total 48.5
Final Toledo by 7. Toledo beat the spread. 83 points — over the 48.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Toledo -2.5 · O/U 48.5 · ML +116 / -142 · Toledo 55% no-vig · model vs market -1.5 pts, -3 pct pts (Toledo view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 63°F, Wind 6 mph.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KDUH)
CBSSN Glass Bowl
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hit
Slow-pace tagged dog2026 combo · Weak Underdog wins: Our total 45-52 + Any pattern tag + Both teams' pace combined: bottom third: Record 21 hits, 16 misses (57% hit rate) over 37 graded gamesOur total 45-52 + Any pattern tag + Both teams' pace combined: bottom third: missed (n=37; wk 5–7 10-6) · Our total 45-52 + Any pattern tag + Both teams' pace combined: bottom third
B. Hammer WR · Low rec yds 44 (avg 61) · 73% · 107 ✗
vs
Bowling Green Falcons
2-6 · SOS #92
Sat, Oct 31, 4:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 31-14 · 87%
Our number
Western Michigan by 17
Total 45
DraftKings
WMU -13.5
Total 44.5
We're 3.5 points higher on Western Michigan than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Western Michigan -13.5 · O/U 44.25 · ML +405 / -568.5 · Western Michigan 81% no-vig · model vs market +3.5 pts, +6 pct pts (Western Michigan view)
Kickoff forecast: Chance rain showers, 56°F, Wind 7 mph SE, 27% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
CBSSN Waldo Stadium
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Unranked plodding fav vs soft-D visitor under2026 combo · Held up Under: Neither team ranked + Away team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank: Record 24 hits, 6 misses (80% hit rate) over 30 graded games (n=30; wk 5–7 12-2) · Neither team ranked + Away team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank Stuff-proof ball-secure fav vs havoc-prone dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite covers: Underdog havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite run stuff rate (least): top-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): top-third FBS rank: Record 28 hits, 5 misses (85% hit rate) over 33 graded games (n=33; wk 5–7 14-3) · Underdog havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite run stuff rate (least): top-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): top-third FBS rank
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · A. Dendy RB · Low rush yds 47 (avg 46) · 75%J. Buckley RB · TD threat 73%B. Lowry QB · High pass yds 169 (avg 156) · 56%
at
Akron Zips
1-7 · SOS #109
Wed, Nov 11, 12:00 AM
Week 11
Proj 35-17 · 87%
Our number
Western Michigan by 18
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
InfoCision Stadium
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded games
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · J. Gant RB · Low rush yds 88 (avg 77) · 75%J. Buckley RB · TD threat 70%B. Lowry QB · High pass yds 173 (avg 156) · 57%
vs
Eastern Michigan Eagles
4-5 · SOS #131
Wed, Nov 18, 12:00 AM
Week 12
Proj 32-18 · 81%
Our number
Western Michigan by 14
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Waldo Stadium
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · A. Blue RB · Low rush yds 41 (avg 45) · 75%Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · B. Bennett RB · Low rush yds 32 (avg 31) · 75%B. Lowry QB · High pass yds 163 (avg 156) · 53%
vs
Miami (OH) RedHawks
5-3 · SOS #117
Tue, Nov 24 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 29-20 · 74%
Our number
Western Michigan by 9
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Waldo Stadium

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Western Michigan Broncos stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

+0.1

69th in FBS

Adj. offense

25.6

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

25.5

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	26.6	85 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	20.4	37 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	5.60	108 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	5.30	48 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	174.4	59 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	159.4	127 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	162.0	83 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	205.0	65 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	0.50	28 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	0.63	108 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	2.38	48 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	1.38	43 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	+0.09	63 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	+0.04	67 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	44.1%	56 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	42.5%	87 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	11.6%	99 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	10.6%	38 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	13.3%	89 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	10.8%	24 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	4.45	40 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	3.61	49 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 30	67 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 27	34 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	59.6	123 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	+0.11	49 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	+0.05	84 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	-0.00	55 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	+0.09	88 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	43.1%	83 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	41.1%	75 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	14.4%	27 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	31.6%	63 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	33.5%	116 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	41.4%	69 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	39.3%	76 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	71.1%	31 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	63.3%	91 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

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