Matchup analysis
Our model projects Western Michigan 31, Bowling Green 14 at Waldo Stadium in Week 9. That is a heavy edge: Western Michigan wins about 87% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 17.3 points and 45.2 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, leans low scoring.
Bowling Green is 2-6 against the 92nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 18.8 and allowing 29.8 points per game (-11 per game). Western Michigan is 5-3 against the 91st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.6 and allowing 20.4 points per game (+6.2 per game).
Expect Bowling Green to find it hard going: Western Michigan's middle-of-the-pack defense (60th) outranks Bowling Green's struggling offense (134th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 16.6 points against an average defense). Western Michigan's middle-of-the-pack offense (78th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Bowling Green's below-average defense (106th); that mismatch is where most of Western Michigan's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bowling Green by 5 and Western Michigan by 40 about 80% of the time.
Western Michigan gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Western Michigan by about 15.2. The game is on CBSSN.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Bowling Green / Western Michigan) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Western Michigan -13.5 | 44.25 | +405 / -568.5 |
| FanDuel | Western Michigan -13.5 | 44.5 | +460 / -650 |
| DraftKings | Western Michigan -13.5 | 44.5 | +410 / -550 |
| theScore Bet | Western Michigan -12.5 | 44.5 | +380 / -550 |
| BetMGM | Western Michigan -13.5 | 44.5 | +425 / -550 |
| Pinnacle | Western Michigan -13.5 | 44 | +411 / -562 |
| Bovada | Western Michigan -13.5 | 44 | +400 / -575 |
| BetRivers | Western Michigan -12.5 | 43.5 | +400 / -590 |
| Hard Rock Bet | Western Michigan -12.5 | 43.5 | +400 / -600 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Western Michigan win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Western Michigan -17.5 | 45.2 | 87% |
| Market consensus | Western Michigan -13.5 | 44.3 | 81% |
| Blended projection | Western Michigan -14 | 45.6 | 83% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Western Michigan win probability
- model 87% · market (no-vig) 81% · difference +6 pts
- Margin
- model Western Michigan -17.3 · market Western Michigan -13.5 · difference +3.8 pts (Western Michigan view)
- Total
- model 45.2 · market 44.25 · difference +1.0
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies Western Michigan 82%.
Model margin is 3.8 pts more toward Western Michigan than the market.
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Bowling Green vs Western Michigan: stat comparison
| Stat | Bowling Green | Western Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 18.8#130 | 26.6#85 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.8#109 | 20.4#37 |
| Yards per play | 5.10#128 | 5.60#108 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.34#118 | 5.30#48 |
| Rushing yards per game | 112.8#134 | 174.4#59 |
| Net passing yards per game | 179.9#117 | 159.4#127 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 227.4#134 | 162.0#83 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 157.1#11 | 205.0#65 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.88#72 | 0.50#28 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.63#103 | 0.63#108 |
| Sacks per game | 2.38#46 | 2.38#48 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50#48 | 1.38#43 |
| Stat | Bowling Green | Western Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03#122 | +0.09#63 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09#97 | +0.04#67 |
| Success rate | 41.9%#83 | 44.1%#56 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.7%#126 | 42.5%#87 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.2%#127 | 11.6%#99 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.9%#93 | 10.6%#38 |
| Havoc rate | 13.7%#71 | 13.3%#89 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.6%#105 | 10.8%#24 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.43#116 | 4.45#40 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.04#94 | 3.61#49 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#96 | own 30#67 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#110 | own 27#34 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 57.4#136 | 59.6#123 |
| Stat | Bowling Green | Western Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.12#135 | +0.11#49 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.07#77 | +0.05#84 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.15#126 | -0.00#55 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01#54 | +0.09#88 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.6%#116 | 43.1%#83 |
| Passing success rate | 44.9%#46 | 41.1%#75 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.4%#118 | 14.4%#27 |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.7%#115 | 31.6%#63 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.2%#94 | 33.5%#116 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.3%#64 | 41.4%#69 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.4%#47 | 39.3%#76 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 55.2%#104 | 71.1%#31 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.0%#63 | 63.3%#91 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Bowling Green schedule · Western Michigan schedule · all Week 9 projections
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