Week 9 College Football Projections (2026)

This week · Updated Oct 29, 2026

Week 9 of the 2026 college football season has 56 FBS games on our board. The closest projected matchup is Delaware at Western Kentucky (0.1-point margin), the highest projected total is Florida Atlantic at North Texas (84.4 points) and the lowest is Wisconsin at Iowa (35.8). 8 games are rated a toss-up (neither side above 58%).

4 games have finished so far: the model picked the winner in 4 of them (100%).

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Every FBS game

CSV download · Sports Pro

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

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FinalCBSSN
Delaware29final 35
Western Kentucky28final 21
Final: Delaware 35, Western Kentucky 21. We projected Delaware 29-28 (50%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Clear, 64°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBWG)
Our number· model now
dead even
Total 56.9
DraftKings
Western Kentucky -2.5
Total 55.5
Final Delaware by 14. Delaware beat the spread. 56 points — over the 55.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Western Kentucky -2.5 · O/U 55.5 · ML +114 / -135 · Western Kentucky 53% no-vig · model vs market -2.6 pts, -4 pct pts (Western Kentucky view)
Delaware 50% · total 56.9Full preview →
FinalESPN2
Sam Houston21final 3
Missouri State28final 24
Final: Sam Houston 3, Missouri State 24. We projected Missouri State 28-21 (68%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Clear, 67°F, Wind 7 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSGF)
Our number· model now
Missouri State by 7.1
Total 49.3
DraftKings
Missouri State -5.5
Total 51.5
Final Missouri State by 21. Missouri State beat the spread. 27 points — under the 51.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Missouri State -5.5 · O/U 51.5 · ML +175 / -210 · Missouri State 66% no-vig · model vs market +1.6 pts, +2 pct pts (Missouri State view)
Missouri State 68% · total 49.3Full preview →
FinalCBSSN
Kennesaw State28final 44
Middle Tennessee24final 28
Final: Kennesaw State 44, Middle Tennessee 28. We projected Kennesaw State 28-24 (61%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Clear, 61°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMQY)
Our number· model now
Kennesaw State by 4.1
Total 51.9
DraftKings
Kennesaw State -1.5
Total 49.5
Final Kennesaw State by 16. Kennesaw State beat the spread. 72 points — over the 49.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Kennesaw State -1.5 · O/U 49.5 · ML -111 / -108 · Middle Tennessee 51% no-vig · model vs market -2.6 pts, -11 pct pts (Middle Tennessee view)
Kennesaw State 61% · total 51.9Full preview →
FinalESPN2
Jacksonville State28final 24
New Mexico State21final 0
Final: Jacksonville State 24, New Mexico State 0. We projected Jacksonville State 28-21 (68%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Clear, 75°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KELP)
Our number· model now
Jacksonville State by 7.1
Total 49.1
DraftKings
Jacksonville State -3
Total 50.5
Final Jacksonville State by 24. Jacksonville State beat the spread. 24 points — under the 50.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Jacksonville State -3 · O/U 50.5 · ML -155 / +129 · New Mexico State 41% no-vig · model vs market -4.1 pts, -9 pct pts (New Mexico State view)
Jacksonville State 68% · total 49.1Full preview →
Thu, Oct 29, 7:30 PM EDTESPN
Florida Atlantic35
North Texas49
We project North Texas 49-35, a 13.8-point margin with 84.4 total points; North Texas wins 82% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Slight chance rain showers, 80°F, Wind 10 mph S, 22% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
North Texas by 13.8
Total 84.4
DraftKings
North Texas -13.5
Total 77.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: North Texas -13.5 · O/U 77.25 · ML +390 / -540.5 · North Texas 81% no-vig · model vs market +0.3 pts, +1 pct pts (North Texas view)
North Texas 82% · total 84.4Full preview →
Thu, Oct 29, 7:30 PM EDTESPN2
Troy18
James Madison36
We project James Madison 36-18, a 18.4-point margin with 54.3 total points; James Madison wins 89% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Clear, 63°F, Wind 1 mph S, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
James Madison by 18.4
Total 54.3
DraftKings
James Madison -21
Total 49.5
We're 2.6 points higher on Troy than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: James Madison -20.75 · O/U 49.5 · ML +900 / -1800 · James Madison 90% no-vig · model vs market -2.4 pts, -2 pct pts (James Madison view)
James Madison 89% · total 54.3Full preview →
Fri, Oct 30, 7:00 PM EDTESPN2
Tulane31
Charlotte16
We project Tulane 31-16, a 14.6-point margin with 47.2 total points; Tulane wins 83% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly clear, 72°F, Wind 1 mph NNE, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
Tulane by 14.6
Total 47.2
DraftKings
Tulane -10
Total 46.5
We're 4.6 points higher on Tulane than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Tulane -10.5 · O/U 46.5 · ML -412.5 / +317.5 · Charlotte 23% no-vig · model vs market -4.1 pts, -6 pct pts (Charlotte view)
Tulane 83% · total 47.2Full preview →
Fri, Oct 30, 7:30 PM EDTESPN
Baylor25
UCF26
We project UCF 26-25, a 1.3-point margin with 51.6 total points; UCF wins 53% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Slight chance rain showers, 78°F, Wind 10 mph NE, 19% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
UCF by 1.3
Total 51.6
DraftKings
UCF -1.5
Total 47.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: UCF -1.5 · O/U 48.5 · ML -1 / -119 · UCF 52% no-vig · model vs market -0.2 pts, +1 pct pts (UCF view)
UCF 53% · total 51.6Full preview →
Fri, Oct 30, 10:30 PM EDTESPN2
Kent State27
Sacramento State22
We project Kent State 27-22, a 4.6-point margin with 49.1 total points; Kent State wins 62% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly clear, 64°F, Wind 3 mph SSW, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
Kent State by 4.6
Total 49.1
DraftKings
Kent State -10
Total 46.5
We're 5.4 points higher on Sacramento State than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Kent State -10 · O/U 46.5 · ML -379.5 / +297.5 · Sacramento State 24% no-vig · model vs market +5.4 pts, +14 pct pts (Sacramento State view)
Kent State 62% · total 49.1Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM EDTNeutral site
Notre Dame43
Navy12
We project Notre Dame 43-12, a 30.8-point margin with 54.9 total points; Notre Dame wins 98% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Sunny, 52°F, Wind 8 mph N, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
Notre Dame by 30.8
Total 54.9
DraftKings
Notre Dame -30.5
Total 57.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Notre Dame -30.5 · O/U 57 · ML -8000 / +1900 · Navy 4% no-vig · model vs market -0.3 pts, -2 pct pts (Navy view)
Notre Dame 98% · total 54.9Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM EDTESPN
Arizona26
Texas Tech29
We project Texas Tech 29-26, a 3.6-point margin with 54.8 total points; Texas Tech wins 59% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 60°F, Wind 5 mph S, 11% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
Texas Tech by 3.6
Total 54.8
DraftKings
Texas Tech -3.5
Total 54.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Texas Tech -3.5 · O/U 54.5 · ML +140 / -169.5 · Texas Tech 60% no-vig · model vs market +0.1 pts, -1 pct pts (Texas Tech view)
Texas Tech 59% · total 54.8Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM EDTESPN2
SMU33
Syracuse25
We project SMU 33-25, a 7.4-point margin with 58.3 total points; SMU wins 69% of the time.
Indoors (dome).
Our number
SMU by 7.4
Total 58.3
DraftKings
SMU -10
Total 58.5
We're 2.6 points higher on Syracuse than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: SMU -10 · O/U 58.5 · ML -367.5 / +287.5 · Syracuse 25% no-vig · model vs market +2.6 pts, +7 pct pts (Syracuse view)
SMU 69% · total 58.3Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM EDTFox
Wisconsin14
Iowa22
We project Iowa 22-14, a 8.7-point margin with 35.8 total points; Iowa wins 72% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Chance rain showers, 60°F, Wind 5 mph SE, 54% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
Iowa by 8.7
Total 35.8
DraftKings
Iowa -3.5
Total 36.5
We're 5.2 points higher on Iowa than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Iowa -3.5 · O/U 36.5 · ML +140 / -170 · Iowa 60% no-vig · model vs market +5.2 pts, +11 pct pts (Iowa view)
Iowa 72% · total 35.8Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM EDTACC Network
California25
NC State36
We project NC State 36-25, a 11.8-point margin with 60.9 total points; NC State wins 78% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Partly sunny, 64°F, Wind 8 mph NE, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
NC State by 11.8
Total 60.9
DraftKings
NC State -7
Total 56.5
We're 4.8 points higher on NC State than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: NC State -7 · O/U 56.5 · ML +221 / -272.5 · NC State 70% no-vig · model vs market +4.8 pts, +8 pct pts (NC State view)
NC State 78% · total 60.9Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM EDTCW
Boston College20
Duke29
We project Duke 29-20, a 9.9-point margin with 49 total points; Duke wins 74% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Partly sunny, 64°F, Wind 7 mph NE, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
Duke by 9.9
Total 49
DraftKings
Duke -7
Total 47.5
We're 2.9 points higher on Duke than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Duke -7 · O/U 47.5 · ML +220 / -272.5 · Duke 70% no-vig · model vs market +2.9 pts, +4 pct pts (Duke view)
Duke 74% · total 49Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM EDTFS1
Illinois32
Maryland26
We project Illinois 32-26, a 6.7-point margin with 57.8 total points; Illinois wins 67% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Partly sunny, 60°F, Wind 3 mph N, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
Illinois by 6.7
Total 57.8
DraftKings
Illinois -2.5
Total 54.5
We're 4.2 points higher on Illinois than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Illinois -2.5 · O/U 54.5 · ML -137 / +114.5 · Maryland 45% no-vig · model vs market -4.2 pts, -12 pct pts (Maryland view)
Illinois 67% · total 57.8Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM EDTESPNU
UAB17
South Florida31
We project South Florida 31-17, a 14.7-point margin with 48.2 total points; South Florida wins 83% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly sunny, 82°F, Wind 12 mph E, 4% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
South Florida by 14.7
Total 48.2
DraftKings
South Florida -8.5
Total 42.5
We're 6.2 points higher on South Florida than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: South Florida -7.75 · O/U 42.5 · ML +250 / -312.5 · South Florida 73% no-vig · model vs market +7.0 pts, +11 pct pts (South Florida view)
South Florida 83% · total 48.2Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM EDTCBSSN
Bowling Green14
Western Michigan31
We project Western Michigan 31-14, a 17.3-point margin with 45.2 total points; Western Michigan wins 87% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Chance rain showers, 56°F, Wind 7 mph SE, 27% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
Western Michigan by 17.3
Total 45.2
DraftKings
Western Michigan -13.5
Total 44.5
We're 3.8 points higher on Western Michigan than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Western Michigan -13.5 · O/U 44.25 · ML +405 / -568.5 · Western Michigan 81% no-vig · model vs market +3.8 pts, +6 pct pts (Western Michigan view)
Western Michigan 87% · total 45.2Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 12:30 PM EDTBTN
Michigan31
Rutgers22
We project Michigan 31-22, a 8.9-point margin with 53.2 total points; Michigan wins 72% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Sunny, 58°F, Wind 5 mph N, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
Michigan by 8.9
Total 53.2
DraftKings
Michigan -14
Total 46.5
We're 5.1 points higher on Rutgers than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Michigan -14 · O/U 46.5 · ML -625 / +445 · Rutgers 18% no-vig · model vs market +5.1 pts, +10 pct pts (Rutgers view)
Michigan 72% · total 53.2Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 12:45 PM EDTSEC Network
Auburn21
Ole Miss35
We project Ole Miss 35-21, a 13.8-point margin with 55.4 total points; Ole Miss wins 82% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Slight chance rain showers, 69°F, Wind 5 mph ESE, 22% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
Ole Miss by 13.8
Total 55.4
DraftKings
Ole Miss -13.5
Total 57.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Ole Miss -13 · O/U 57.5 · ML +391 / -542.5 · Ole Miss 81% no-vig · model vs market +0.8 pts, +1 pct pts (Ole Miss view)
Ole Miss 82% · total 55.4Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 1:00 PM EDTESPN+
Marshall22
Old Dominion24
We project Old Dominion 24-22, a 2.7-point margin with 46.1 total points; Old Dominion wins 57% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Partly sunny, 62°F, Wind 12 mph NE, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
Old Dominion by 2.7
Total 46.1
DraftKings
Marshall -2.5
Total 45.5
We're 5.2 points higher on Old Dominion than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Marshall -2.5 · O/U 45.25 · ML -143 / +120 · Old Dominion 43% no-vig · model vs market +5.2 pts, +14 pct pts (Old Dominion view)
Old Dominion 57% · total 46.1Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 2:00 PM EDTTNT
Kansas State30
Colorado24
We project Kansas State 30-24, a 6.1-point margin with 53.4 total points; Kansas State wins 66% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Partly sunny, 57°F, Wind 2 mph E, 5% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
Kansas State by 6.1
Total 53.4
DraftKings
Kansas State -2.5
Total 47.5
We're 3.6 points higher on Kansas State than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Kansas State -2.5 · O/U 47.5 · ML -135 / +114 · Colorado 45% no-vig · model vs market -3.6 pts, -11 pct pts (Colorado view)
Kansas State 66% · total 53.4Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 2:00 PM EDTESPN+
Coastal Carolina25
Georgia State33
We project Georgia State 33-25, a 7.3-point margin with 57.8 total points; Georgia State wins 68% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 72°F, Wind 15 mph E, 4% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
Georgia State by 7.3
Total 57.8
DraftKings
Georgia State -6.5
Total 58.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Georgia State -6.5 · O/U 58 · ML +200 / -242.5 · Georgia State 68% no-vig · model vs market +0.8 pts, -0 pct pts (Georgia State view)
Georgia State 68% · total 57.8Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 3:00 PM EDTMW+
UConn27
Air Force30
We project Air Force 30-27, a 3.2-point margin with 56.8 total points; Air Force wins 58% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly sunny, 59°F, Wind 5 mph SE, 10% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
Air Force by 3.2
Total 56.8
DraftKings
Air Force -2.5
Total 53.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Air Force -2.5 · O/U 53.5 · ML +124.5 / -146.5 · Air Force 57% no-vig · model vs market +0.7 pts, +2 pct pts (Air Force view)
Air Force 58% · total 56.8Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 3:00 PM EDTESPN+
Temple21
East Carolina32
We project East Carolina 32-21, a 11-point margin with 52.6 total points; East Carolina wins 76% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 70°F, Wind 9 mph NE, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
East Carolina by 11
Total 52.6
DraftKings
East Carolina -6
Total 49.5
We're 5 points higher on East Carolina than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: East Carolina -6 · O/U 49.5 · ML +191.5 / -232.5 · East Carolina 67% no-vig · model vs market +5.0 pts, +9 pct pts (East Carolina view)
East Carolina 76% · total 52.6Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 3:00 PM EDTESPN+
Louisiana Tech32
South Alabama27
We project Louisiana Tech 32-27, a 4.3-point margin with 59.1 total points; Louisiana Tech wins 61% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Chance showers and thunderstorms, 81°F, Wind 10 mph E, 50% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
Louisiana Tech by 4.3
Total 59.1
DraftKings
Louisiana Tech -5.5
Total 57.5
We're 1.2 points higher on South Alabama than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Louisiana Tech -5.5 · O/U 57.5 · ML -212.5 / +177.5 · South Alabama 35% no-vig · model vs market +1.2 pts, +4 pct pts (South Alabama view)
Louisiana Tech 61% · total 59.1Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 3:15 PM EDTACC Network
Stanford18
Louisville40
We project Louisville 40-18, a 22.7-point margin with 58.3 total points; Louisville wins 93% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 72°F, Wind 3 mph E, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
Louisville by 22.7
Total 58.3
DraftKings
Louisville -22.5
Total 61.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Louisville -22.5 · O/U 61.5 · ML +1050 / -2300 · Louisville 92% no-vig · model vs market +0.2 pts, +2 pct pts (Louisville view)
Louisville 93% · total 58.3Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM EDTNeutral site
Florida24
Georgia37
We project Georgia 37-24, a 12.6-point margin with 61 total points; Georgia wins 80% of the time.
Kickoff forecast (retractable roof): Mostly cloudy, 72°F, Wind 15 mph E, 4% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
Georgia by 12.6
Total 61
DraftKings
Georgia -11.5
Total 55.5
We're 1.1 points higher on Georgia than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Georgia -11.5 · O/U 55.75 · ML +350 / -450 · Georgia 79% no-vig · model vs market +1.1 pts, +1 pct pts (Georgia view)
Georgia 80% · total 61Full preview →

Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM EDTCBS
Minnesota8
Indiana33
We project Indiana 33-8, a 25-point margin with 40.9 total points; Indiana wins 95% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 70°F, Wind 5 mph ESE, 1% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
Indiana by 25
Total 40.9
DraftKings
Indiana -20.5
Total 42.5
We're 4.5 points higher on Indiana than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Indiana -20.5 · O/U 42.5 · ML +850 / -1525 · Indiana 90% no-vig · model vs market +4.5 pts, +5 pct pts (Indiana view)
Indiana 95% · total 40.9Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM EDTFox
Arizona State18
BYU35
We project BYU 35-18, a 17-point margin with 53.6 total points; BYU wins 87% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Slight chance showers and thunderstorms, 59°F, Wind 3 mph S, 14% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
BYU by 17
Total 53.6
DraftKings
BYU -16.5
Total 48.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: BYU -16.5 · O/U 48.5 · ML +535 / -765 · BYU 85% no-vig · model vs market +0.5 pts, +2 pct pts (BYU view)
BYU 87% · total 53.6Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM EDTPeacock
Northwestern18
Oregon33
We project Oregon 33-18, a 15.2-point margin with 50.5 total points; Oregon wins 84% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly sunny, 48°F, Wind calm, 4% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
Oregon by 15.2
Total 50.5
DraftKings
Oregon -3.5
Total 47.5
We're 11.7 points higher on Oregon than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Oregon -3.5 · O/U 47.5 · ML +145 / -172.5 · Oregon 61% no-vig · model vs market +11.7 pts, +24 pct pts (Oregon view)
Oregon 84% · total 50.5Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM EDTFS1
Kansas22
TCU24
We project TCU 24-22, a 2.8-point margin with 46 total points; TCU wins 57% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Chance showers and thunderstorms, 74°F, Wind 5 mph SSW, 50% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
TCU by 2.8
Total 46
DraftKings
TCU -6
Total 46.5
We're 3.2 points higher on Kansas than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: TCU -5.75 · O/U 46.5 · ML +190 / -227.5 · TCU 67% no-vig · model vs market -2.9 pts, -9 pct pts (TCU view)
TCU 57% · total 46Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM EDTUSA Net
Colorado State26
Utah State34
We project Utah State 34-26, a 7.2-point margin with 60 total points; Utah State wins 68% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Chance showers and thunderstorms, 55°F, Wind 2 mph SSW, 36% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
Utah State by 7.2
Total 60
DraftKings
Utah State -6.5
Total 63.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Utah State -6.5 · O/U 63.5 · ML +192.5 / -240 · Utah State 68% no-vig · model vs market +0.7 pts, +1 pct pts (Utah State view)
Utah State 68% · total 60Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM EDTMW+
UTEP6
North Dakota State39
We project North Dakota State 39-6, a 32.5-point margin with 45.4 total points; North Dakota State wins 98% of the time.
Indoors (dome).
Our number
North Dakota State by 32.5
Total 45.4
DraftKings
North Dakota State -25.5
Total 43.5
We're 7 points higher on North Dakota State than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: North Dakota State -25.5 · O/U 43.5 · ML +1420 / -3253 · North Dakota State 93% no-vig · model vs market +7.0 pts, +5 pct pts (North Dakota State view)
North Dakota State 98% · total 45.4Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM EDTCBSSN
Florida International14
Liberty27
We project Liberty 27-14, a 13.5-point margin with 40.6 total points; Liberty wins 81% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Partly sunny, 63°F, Wind 5 mph E, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
Liberty by 13.5
Total 40.6
DraftKings
Liberty -14
Total 45.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Liberty -14 · O/U 45.5 · ML +440 / -625 · Liberty 82% no-vig · model vs market -0.5 pts, -1 pct pts (Liberty view)
Liberty 81% · total 40.6Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM EDTESPN+
Southern Miss29
UL Monroe25
We project Southern Miss 29-25, a 3.8-point margin with 54.5 total points; Southern Miss wins 60% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Chance rain showers, 80°F, Wind 5 mph E, 39% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
Southern Miss by 3.8
Total 54.5
DraftKings
Southern Miss -3.5
Total 55.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Southern Miss -3.5 · O/U 56.25 · ML -167.5 / +141 · UL Monroe 40% no-vig · model vs market -0.3 pts, +0 pct pts (UL Monroe view)
Southern Miss 60% · total 54.5Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 3:45 PM EDTESPN
Utah33
Cincinnati24
We project Utah 33-24, a 8.8-point margin with 57.4 total points; Utah wins 72% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 69°F, Wind 6 mph E, 1% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
Utah by 8.8
Total 57.4
DraftKings
Utah -6.5
Total 56.5
We're 2.3 points higher on Utah than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Utah -6.5 · O/U 56.75 · ML -250 / +205 · Cincinnati 32% no-vig · model vs market -2.3 pts, -3 pct pts (Cincinnati view)
Utah 72% · total 57.4Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 3:45 PM EDTESPN2
Virginia17
Wake Forest30
We project Wake Forest 30-17, a 13.4-point margin with 46.6 total points; Wake Forest wins 81% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 67°F, Wind 7 mph NE, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
Wake Forest by 13.4
Total 46.6
DraftKings
Wake Forest -12.5
Total 49.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Wake Forest -12.5 · O/U 49.5 · ML +400 / -570 · Wake Forest 81% no-vig · model vs market +0.9 pts, 0 pct pts (Wake Forest view)
Wake Forest 81% · total 46.6Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 4:00 PM EDTMW+
New Mexico32
San José State16
We project New Mexico 32-16, a 16.3-point margin with 48.5 total points; New Mexico wins 86% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Slight chance light rain, 64°F, Wind calm, 16% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
New Mexico by 16.3
Total 48.5
DraftKings
New Mexico -14.5
Total 42.5
We're 1.8 points higher on New Mexico than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: New Mexico -14.5 · O/U 41.5 · ML -687.5 / +477.5 · San José State 16% no-vig · model vs market -1.8 pts, -2 pct pts (San José State view)
New Mexico 86% · total 48.5Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 4:15 PM EDTBTN
Nevada14
UCLA34
We project UCLA 34-14, a 19.7-point margin with 47.5 total points; UCLA wins 90% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Chance rain showers, 68°F, Wind calm, 45% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
UCLA by 19.7
Total 47.5
DraftKings
UCLA -22.5
Total 44.5
We're 2.8 points higher on Nevada than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UCLA -22.5 · O/U 44.5 · ML +976.5 / -1950 · UCLA 91% no-vig · model vs market -2.8 pts, -1 pct pts (UCLA view)
UCLA 90% · total 47.5Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 4:15 PM EDTSEC Network
South Carolina21
Oklahoma24
We project Oklahoma 24-21, a 2.4-point margin with 45.1 total points; Oklahoma wins 56% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Chance rain showers, 70°F, Wind 7 mph SSE, 42% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
Oklahoma by 2.4
Total 45.1
DraftKings
Oklahoma -5.5
Total 44.5
We're 3.1 points higher on South Carolina than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Oklahoma -5.5 · O/U 44.5 · ML +170 / -205 · Oklahoma 64% no-vig · model vs market -3.1 pts, -8 pct pts (Oklahoma view)
Oklahoma 56% · total 45.1Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 4:15 PM EDTBTN
Purdue23
Penn State34
We project Penn State 34-23, a 11-point margin with 56.1 total points; Penn State wins 76% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Partly sunny, 61°F, Wind calm, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
Penn State by 11
Total 56.1
DraftKings
Penn State -7.5
Total 54.5
We're 3.5 points higher on Penn State than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Penn State -7.5 · O/U 54.5 · ML +240 / -292.5 · Penn State 72% no-vig · model vs market +3.5 pts, +5 pct pts (Penn State view)
Penn State 76% · total 56.1Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 6:30 PM EDTESPN+
App State24
Georgia Southern30
We project Georgia Southern 30-24, a 6.8-point margin with 54.2 total points; Georgia Southern wins 67% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 74°F, Wind 14 mph E, 12% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
Georgia Southern by 6.8
Total 54.2
DraftKings
Georgia Southern -5.5
Total 56.5
We're 1.3 points higher on Georgia Southern than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Georgia Southern -5.5 (open Georgia Southern -3.5) · O/U 56.5 (open 54.5) · ML +170 / -205 · Georgia Southern 64% no-vig · model vs market +1.3 pts, +3 pct pts (Georgia Southern view)
Georgia Southern 67% · total 54.2Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 7:00 PM EDTFS1
Oklahoma State28
Iowa State27
We project Oklahoma State 28-27, a 1-point margin with 55.2 total points; Oklahoma State wins 53% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Chance rain showers, 64°F, Wind 3 mph SE, 27% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
Oklahoma State by 1
Total 55.2
DraftKings
Oklahoma State -9.5
Total 57.5
We're 8.5 points higher on Iowa State than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Oklahoma State -9.5 · O/U 57.5 · ML -350 / +277.5 · Iowa State 25% no-vig · model vs market +8.5 pts, +22 pct pts (Iowa State view)
Oklahoma State 53% · total 55.2Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 7:00 PM EDTACC Network
Clemson21
Florida State28
We project Florida State 28-21, a 6.9-point margin with 49.9 total points; Florida State wins 68% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Chance rain showers, 78°F, Wind 10 mph ENE, 31% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
Florida State by 6.9
Total 49.9
DraftKings
Florida State -6
Total 49.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Florida State -6 · O/U 49.5 · ML +180 / -220 · Florida State 66% no-vig · model vs market +0.9 pts, +2 pct pts (Florida State view)
Florida State 68% · total 49.9Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 7:00 PM EDTCBSSN
Washington State26
San Diego State27
We project San Diego State 27-26, a 1.3-point margin with 53 total points; San Diego State wins 53% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Slight chance rain showers, 69°F, Wind 5 mph SW, 17% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
San Diego State by 1.3
Total 53
DraftKings
San Diego State -2.5
Total 48.5
We're 1.2 points higher on Washington State than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: San Diego State -2.5 · O/U 48.5 · ML +115 / -135 · San Diego State 55% no-vig · model vs market -1.2 pts, -2 pct pts (San Diego State view)
San Diego State 53% · total 53Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM EDTABC
Miami39
North Carolina15
We project Miami 39-15, a 24.3-point margin with 54.1 total points; Miami wins 94% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 61°F, Wind 5 mph NE, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
Miami by 24.3
Total 54.1
DraftKings
Miami -14.5
Total 52.5
We're 9.8 points higher on Miami than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Miami -14.5 · O/U 52.5 · ML -675 / +481 · North Carolina 16% no-vig · model vs market -9.8 pts, -11 pct pts (North Carolina view)
Miami 94% · total 54.1Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM EDTNBC
Ohio State35
USC22
We project Ohio State 35-22, a 13.3-point margin with 56.8 total points; Ohio State wins 81% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Chance rain showers, 66°F, Wind 5 mph SSW, 51% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
Ohio State by 13.3
Total 56.8
DraftKings
Ohio State -6.5
Total 51.5
We're 6.8 points higher on Ohio State than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Ohio State -6.5 · O/U 51.5 · ML -247.5 / +203 · USC 32% no-vig · model vs market -6.8 pts, -13 pct pts (USC view)
Ohio State 81% · total 56.8Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM EDTESPN
Mississippi State19
Texas36
We project Texas 36-19, a 17-point margin with 54.4 total points; Texas wins 87% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Slight chance showers and thunderstorms, 79°F, Wind calm, 21% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
Texas by 17
Total 54.4
DraftKings
Texas -21
Total 50.5
We're 4 points higher on Mississippi State than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Texas -20.75 · O/U 50.5 · ML +852 / -1600 · Texas 90% no-vig · model vs market -3.7 pts, -3 pct pts (Texas view)
Texas 87% · total 54.4Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM EDTESPN2
Georgia Tech22
Pittsburgh35
We project Pittsburgh 35-22, a 12.8-point margin with 57 total points; Pittsburgh wins 80% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 57°F, Wind 3 mph E, 2% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
Pittsburgh by 12.8
Total 57
DraftKings
Pittsburgh -7.5
Total 54.5
We're 5.3 points higher on Pittsburgh than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Pittsburgh -7.5 · O/U 53.5 · ML +250 / -302.5 · Pittsburgh 73% no-vig · model vs market +5.3 pts, +7 pct pts (Pittsburgh view)
Pittsburgh 80% · total 57Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 7:45 PM EDTSEC Network
Missouri29
Arkansas19
We project Missouri 29-19, a 10.4-point margin with 48.2 total points; Missouri wins 75% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Chance rain showers, 68°F, Wind 5 mph SE, 52% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
Missouri by 10.4
Total 48.2
DraftKings
Missouri -10
Total 49.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Missouri -10 · O/U 49.25 · ML -380 / +300 · Arkansas 24% no-vig · model vs market -0.4 pts, +1 pct pts (Arkansas view)
Missouri 75% · total 48.2Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 8:00 PM EDTBTN
Washington22
Nebraska30
We project Nebraska 30-22, a 8.3-point margin with 51.6 total points; Nebraska wins 71% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 64°F, Wind 5 mph SE, 9% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
Nebraska by 8.3
Total 51.6
DraftKings
Nebraska -7.5
Total 49.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Nebraska -7.5 · O/U 49.5 · ML +250 / -308 · Nebraska 73% no-vig · model vs market +0.8 pts, -3 pct pts (Nebraska view)
Nebraska 71% · total 51.6Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 8:00 PM EDTESPNU
Army28
Memphis30
We project Memphis 30-28, a 2.6-point margin with 57.6 total points; Memphis wins 57% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Chance rain showers, 71°F, Wind 5 mph ESE, 34% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
Memphis by 2.6
Total 57.6
DraftKings
Memphis -6
Total 59.5
We're 3.4 points higher on Army than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Memphis -6 · O/U 59.5 · ML +187 / -227.5 · Memphis 66% no-vig · model vs market -3.4 pts, -10 pct pts (Memphis view)
Memphis 57% · total 57.6Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 10:00 PM EDTCW
Texas State27
Boise State39
We project Boise State 39-27, a 11.9-point margin with 65.5 total points; Boise State wins 78% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Rain showers, 52°F, Wind 5 mph W, 82% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
Boise State by 11.9
Total 65.5
DraftKings
Boise State -11.5
Total 64.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Boise State -11.25 · O/U 64 · ML +340 / -450 · Boise State 78% no-vig · model vs market +0.7 pts, 0 pct pts (Boise State view)
Boise State 78% · total 65.5Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 10:30 PM EDTCBSSN
Northern Illinois17
UNLV36
We project UNLV 36-17, a 18.8-point margin with 52.5 total points; UNLV wins 89% of the time.
Indoors (dome).
Our number
UNLV by 18.8
Total 52.5
DraftKings
UNLV -23.5
Total 53.5
We're 4.7 points higher on Northern Illinois than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UNLV -24 · O/U 53.5 · ML +1200 / -2500 · UNLV 92% no-vig · model vs market -5.2 pts, -3 pct pts (UNLV view)
UNLV 89% · total 52.5Full preview →
Sat, Oct 31, 11:00 PM EDTUSA Net
Oregon State29
Fresno State25
We project Oregon State 29-25, a 3.3-point margin with 54.1 total points; Oregon State wins 58% of the time.
Kickoff forecast: Light rain likely, 62°F, Wind 5 mph NW, 60% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Our number
Oregon State by 3.3
Total 54.1
DraftKings
Oregon State -5.5
Total 58.5
We're 2.2 points higher on Fresno State than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Oregon State -5.5 · O/U 58.5 · ML -223.5 / +185 · Fresno State 34% no-vig · model vs market +2.2 pts, +8 pct pts (Fresno State view)
Oregon State 58% · total 54.1Full preview →

How these numbers are made

Each team gets opponent-adjusted offense and defense ratings for points, expected points added per play and success rate, built from every snap of play-by-play with garbage time removed. Early in the season the ratings lean on a preseason prior (last two seasons, returning production, roster talent); every game played shifts them toward this year. A fitted model turns the rating gaps plus home field (about 2 points, more in the opening weeks) and rest into a margin and a total, and the margin into a calibrated win probability. See the methodology and track record and the season scorecard for how the model has actually done.

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