Matchup analysis
Our model projects Air Force 30, UConn 27 at Falcon Stadium in Week 9. That is a lean: Air Force wins about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.2 points and 56.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
UConn is 4-3 against the 132nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.6 and allowing 23.9 points per game (+11.7 per game). Air Force is 5-2 against the 105th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28.4 and allowing 20.9 points per game (+7.5 per game).
UConn's middle-of-the-pack offense (73rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.8 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Air Force's below-average defense (88th); that mismatch is where most of UConn's projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Air Force's middle-of-the-pack offense (80th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.3 points against an average defense) against UConn's below-average defense (96th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UConn by 19 and Air Force by 26 about 80% of the time.
Air Force gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Air Force by about 1.1. The game is on MW+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (UConn / Air Force) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Air Force -2.5 | 53.5 | +124.5 / -146.5 |
| FanDuel | Air Force -2.5 | 53.5 | +126 / -152 |
| DraftKings | Air Force -2.5 | 53.5 | +124 / -148 |
| BetMGM | Air Force -2.5 | 53.5 | +120 / -145 |
| theScore Bet | Air Force -2.5 | 53.5 | +125 / -145 |
| Pinnacle | Air Force -3 | 53.5 | +128 / -148 |
| Bovada | Air Force -3 | 53.5 | +130 / -150 |
| BetRivers | Air Force -2.5 | 53.5 | +114 / -141 |
| Hard Rock Bet | Air Force -2.5 | 53.5 | +115 / -140 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Air Force win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Air Force -3 | 56.8 | 58% |
| Market consensus | Air Force -2.5 | 53.5 | 57% |
| Blended projection | Air Force -2.5 | 54.2 | 57% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Air Force win probability
- model 58% · market (no-vig) 57% · difference +2 pts
- Margin
- model Air Force -3.2 · market Air Force -2.5 · difference +0.7 pts (Air Force view)
- Total
- model 56.8 · market 53.5 · difference +3.3
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies Air Force 51%.
Model margin is 0.7 pts more toward Air Force than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
UConn vs Air Force: stat comparison
| Stat | UConn | Air Force |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 35.6#30 | 28.4#71 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.9#67 | 20.9#42 |
| Yards per play | 6.97#12 | 5.68#97 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.59#69 | 6.06#96 |
| Rushing yards per game | 220.9#17 | 341.1#1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 232.3#62 | 68.7#138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 116.1#20 | 141.3#52 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 279.4#135 | 174.0#21 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#87 | 0.57#35 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.71#96 | 0.86#71 |
| Sacks per game | 1.86#84 | 1.29#115 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.14#133 | 0.71#6 |
| Stat | UConn | Air Force |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.15#39 | +0.18#31 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03#63 | +0.06#77 |
| Success rate | 43.3%#64 | 48.5%#22 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.1%#72 | 40.8%#69 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.6%#15 | 11.1%#113 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.6%#16 | 11.5%#67 |
| Havoc rate | 14.7%#58 | 12.8%#101 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.0%#39 | 8.0%#1 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.31#50 | 4.64#31 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.57#45 | 4.07#97 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#47 | own 30#63 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#45 | own 29#69 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.0#75 | 72.1#9 |
| Stat | UConn | Air Force |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.22#6 | +0.22#7 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.08#72 | +0.17#43 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.05#29 | +0.05#77 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.09#87 | +0.08#82 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.8%#53 | 52.2%#5 |
| Passing success rate | 43.1%#56 | 35.7%#121 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.7%#42 | 9.7%#1 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.8%#45 | 29.6%#99 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.4%#41 | 28.7%#59 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.0%#80 | 55.4%#6 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.2%#88 | 38.2%#63 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 73.0%#21 | 65.1%#57 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 60.0%#75 | 57.9%#61 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UConn schedule · Air Force schedule · all Week 9 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.