2026 schedule
Air Force Falcons
2026 season so far
Air Force is 5-2 against the 105th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28.4 and allowing 20.9 points per game (+7.5 per game).
In our opponent-adjusted ratings Air Force ranks 86th of 139 FBS teams overall — 80th on offense and 88th on defense. The offense carries this team more than the defense does.
Next up: vs UConn in Week 9. We project Air Force 30, UConn 27 — Air Force wins 58% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 games- vs
Duquesne Dukes
0-1 · SOS #91
Win 34-0
Week 1
Our number· model now
Air Force by 19
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
Final Air Force by 34. 34 points. No book line was saved for this game.
MW+ Falcon Stadium - vs
North Dakota State Bison
3-0 · SOS #123
Loss 32-38
Week 2
Our number· model now
North Dakota State by 6
Total 48
Book line
Not posted
Final North Dakota State by 6. 70 points. No book line was saved for this game.
FS1 Falcon Stadium - at
Nevada Wolf Pack
1-3 · SOS #112
Win 36-33
Week 4
Our number· model now
Air Force by 3
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
Final Air Force by 3. 69 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: 58°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (E6216)FS1 Mackay Stadium - vs
Navy Midshipmen
1-3 · SOS #99
Win 14-9
Week 5
Our number· model now
Air Force by 2
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
Final Air Force by 5. 23 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 77°F, Wind 13 mph NNW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KAFF)CBS Falcon Stadium - at
Northern Illinois Huskies
0-5 · SOS #59
Win 28-7
Week 6
Our number· model now
Air Force by 14
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
Final Air Force by 21. 35 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: 66°F, Wind 11 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KDKB)CBSSN Huskie Stadium - vs
UNLV Rebels
4-3 · SOS #82
Win 41-31
Week 7
Our number· model now
Air Force by 1
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
Final Air Force by 10. 72 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KAFF)CBSSN Falcon Stadium - at
Wyoming Cowboys
5-3 · SOS #130
Loss 14-28
Week 8
Our number· model now
Air Force by 5
Total 45
Book line
Not posted
Final Wyoming by 14. 42 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Partly cloudy, 48°F, Wind 3 mph WSW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLAR)CW War Memorial Stadium - vs
UConn Huskies
4-3 · SOS #132
Sat, Oct 31, 7:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 30-27 · 58%
Our number
Air Force by 3
Total 57
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly sunny, 59°F, Wind 5 mph SE, 10% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDTMW+ Falcon Stadium - at
Army Black Knights
5-2 · SOS #107
Sun, Nov 8, 12:30 AM
Week 10
Proj 25-30 · 36%
Our number
Army by 5
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
CBS Michie Stadium - vs
San José State Spartans
4-4 · SOS #121
Sun, Nov 15, 12:00 AM
Week 11
Proj 30-20 · 75%
Our number
Air Force by 10
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
CBSSN Falcon Stadium - vs
UTEP Miners
1-6 · SOS #76
Sat, Nov 21, 1:00 AM
Week 12
Proj 39-15 · 95%
Our number
Air Force by 24
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
CW Falcon Stadium - at
New Mexico Lobos
6-1 · SOS #129
Sat, Nov 28, 9:30 PM
Week 13
Proj 20-32 · 22%
Our number
New Mexico by 12
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
CW University Stadium (NM)
Times shown in your local time
Air Force Falcons stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-3.3
85th in FBS
Adj. offense
25.3
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
28.6
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 28.4 | 71 / 138 |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 20.9 | 42 / 138 |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.68 | 97 / 138 |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.06 | 96 / 138 |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 341.1 | 1 / 138 |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 68.7 | 138 / 138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 141.3 | 52 / 138 |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 174.0 | 21 / 138 |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.57 | 35 / 138 |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.86 | 71 / 138 |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.29 | 115 / 138 |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 0.71 | 6 / 138 |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.18 | 31 / 138 |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.06 | 77 / 138 |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 48.5% | 22 / 138 |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 40.8% | 69 / 138 |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 11.1% | 113 / 138 |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 11.5% | 67 / 138 |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 12.8% | 101 / 138 |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 8.0% | 1 / 138 |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.64 | 31 / 138 |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 4.07 | 97 / 138 |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | own 30 | 63 / 138 |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | own 29 | 69 / 138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 72.1 | 9 / 138 |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.22 | 7 / 138 |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.17 | 43 / 138 |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.05 | 77 / 138 |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.08 | 82 / 138 |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 52.2% | 5 / 138 |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 35.7% | 121 / 138 |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 9.7% | 1 / 138 |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 29.6% | 99 / 138 |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 28.7% | 59 / 138 |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 55.4% | 6 / 138 |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 38.2% | 63 / 138 |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 65.1% | 57 / 138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 57.9% | 61 / 138 |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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