Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Air Force 27, Wyoming 18.8 at War Memorial Stadium in Week 8. That is a solid edge: Air Force wins about 70% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.2 points and 45.8 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
Air Force is 5-1, scoring 30.8 and allowing 19.7 points per game (+11.1 per game). Wyoming is 4-3, scoring 18.3 and allowing 20.9 points per game (-2.6 per game).
Air Force's middle-of-the-pack offense (67th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.7 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Wyoming's below-average defense (83rd); that mismatch is where most of Air Force's projected points come from. Expect Wyoming to find it hard going: Air Force's middle-of-the-pack defense (80th) outranks Wyoming's struggling offense (129th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 16.7 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Air Force by 31 and Wyoming by 14 about 80% of the time.
Wyoming gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Air Force is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CW.
Result: Air Force 14, Wyoming 28. Wyoming won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 22.2 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Air Force / Wyoming) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Air Force -7 | 46.5 | -260 / +210 |
| Opening line | Air Force -6.5 | 42.5 | -230 / +190 |
| DraftKings | Air Force -7 | 46.5 | -258 / +210 |
| FanDuel | Air Force -6.5 | 46.5 | -240 / +195 |
| BetRivers | Air Force -6.5 | 46.5 | -250 / +195 |
| BetMGM | Air Force -7 | 46.5 | -275 / +210 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 6:45 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Wyoming win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Air Force -8 | 45.8 | 30% |
| Market consensus | Air Force -7 | 46.5 | 32% |
| Blended projection | Air Force -7 | 47.5 | 31% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Wyoming win probability
- model 30% · market (no-vig) 32% · difference -2 pts
- Margin
- model Air Force -8.2 · market Air Force -7 · difference -1.2 pts (Wyoming view)
- Total
- model 45.8 · market 46.5 · difference -0.7
Model margin is 1.2 pts more toward Air Force than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Air Force 27.0, Wyoming 18.8 | Air Force 70%wrong winner | 22.2 | 3.8 |
| New formula | Air Force 27.1, Wyoming 18.7 | Air Force 71%wrong winner | 22.4 | 3.8 |
Final: Air Force 14, Wyoming 28. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Air Force vs Wyoming: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Air Force | Wyoming |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.8#62 | 18.3#128 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.7#39 | 20.9#44 |
| Yards per play | 5.76#93 | 5.71#97 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.90#92 | 5.51#65 |
| Rushing yards per game | 344.8#2 | 196.4#41 |
| Net passing yards per game | 67.8#137 | 141.6#132 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 133.3#43 | 187.1#106 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 184.5#38 | 181.6#31 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.67#45 | 1.43#126 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#53 | 0.43#127 |
| Sacks per game | 1.33#113 | 2.43#40 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.50#9 | 2.14#92 |
| Stat | Air Force | Wyoming |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.15#43 | +0.03#99 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03#61 | +0.06#76 |
| Success rate | 48.4%#23 | 42.2%#80 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.3%#61 | 44.2%#106 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.3%#103 | 13.8%#46 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.7%#69 | 11.6%#67 |
| Havoc rate | 13.3%#83 | 12.6%#101 |
| Havoc allowed | 7.9%#1 | 15.1%#116 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.86#21 | 3.50#113 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.05#91 | 3.56#48 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#53 | own 31#47 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#63 | own 27#37 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 71.7#11 | 59.1#125 |
| Stat | Air Force | Wyoming |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.20#12 | +0.13#39 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.13#60 | -0.12#125 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.02#63 | +0.05#81 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.06#75 | +0.04#65 |
| Rushing success rate | 50.8%#15 | 49.2%#22 |
| Passing success rate | 37.7%#112 | 38.6%#105 |
| Run stuff rate | 9.2%#1 | 15.2%#45 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.7%#101 | 30.1%#83 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.9%#44 | 30.8%#86 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 55.2%#8 | 36.3%#109 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.0%#88 | 37.6%#60 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 70.1%#34 | 49.5%#120 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 54.6%#49 | 46.6%#21 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Air Force schedule · Wyoming schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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