2026 schedule

Wyoming Cowboys

5-3SOS #130

2026 season so far

Wyoming is 5-3 against the 130th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 19.5 and allowing 20 points per game (-0.5 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings Wyoming ranks 109th of 139 FBS teams overall — 131st on offense and 70th on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.

Next up: at UNLV in Week 10. We project Wyoming 17, UNLV 26 — Wyoming wins 27% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

at
Colorado State Rams
1-0 · SOS #57
Loss 13-35
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Colorado State by 1.4
Total 45
DraftKings
CSU -2.5
Total 45.5
Final Colorado State by 22. Colorado State beat the spread. 48 points — over the 45.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Colorado State -2.75 (open Colorado State -4) · O/U 46 (open 47.5) · ML +137.5 / -161 · Colorado State 59% no-vig · model vs market -1.4 pts, -6 pct pts (Colorado State view)
USA Net Canvas Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missed
vs
Northern Colorado Bears
0-3 · SOS #62
Win 21-13
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Wyoming by 31.7
Total 41.9
DraftKings
WYO -23.5
Total 44.5
Final Wyoming by 8. Northern Colorado beat the spread. 34 points — under the 44.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Wyoming -23.5 (open Wyoming -22.5) · O/U 44.25 (open 47.5) · ML +975 / -1900 · Wyoming 91% no-vig · model vs market +8.2 pts, +7 pct pts (Wyoming view)
MW+ War Memorial Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: missedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: hit
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: missed (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
Blowout big fav vs low-total dog over2026 combo · Held up Over: Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: Record 69 hits, 37 misses (65% hit rate) over 106 graded gamesBig favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: missed (n=106; wk 5–7 13-1) · Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14
at
Central Michigan Chippewas
2-1 · SOS #71
Loss 10-24
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Central Michigan by 3.4
Total 41.6
DraftKings
WYO -1.5
Total 39.5
Final Central Michigan by 14. Central Michigan beat the spread. 34 points — under the 39.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Wyoming -1.75 (open Central Michigan -2) · O/U 39.75 (open 39.5) · ML -11 / -9 · Central Michigan 50% no-vig · model vs market +5.1 pts, +9 pct pts (Central Michigan view)
ESPN+ Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: hit
vs
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
1-3 · SOS #100
Win 27-10
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Wyoming by 1.1
Total 44.9
DraftKings
HAW -2.5
Total 44.5
Final Wyoming by 17. Wyoming beat the spread. 37 points — under the 44.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Hawai'i -2.25 (open Hawai'i -4.25) · O/U 44.5 (open 45.25) · ML -142.5 / +120 · Wyoming 44% no-vig · model vs market +3.4 pts, +9 pct pts (Wyoming view)
Game-time weather: Partly cloudy, 75°F, Wind 11 mph W.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLAR)
CW War Memorial Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: hitLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: hit
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hit
Well-protected short dogShort dog · YPP + protection · 2014–25 Underdog getting 2.5 or less, better in yards per play and much better at avoiding sacks: Record 109 hits, 80 misses (58% hit rate) over 189 graded games · 2026: 9-3Short dog · YPP + protection: hit Big-yardage short dogShort dog · much better YPP · 2014–25 Underdog getting 2.5 or less, much better in yards per play: Record 218 hits, 191 misses (53% hit rate) over 409 graded games · 2026: 13-12Short dog · much better YPP: hit
D. Rice RB · TD threat 71% · 0 ✗T. Hughes QB · High pass yds 178 (avg 151) · 58% · 204 ✓
at
North Dakota State Bison
5-0 · SOS #123
Loss 0-28
Week 5
Our number· pregame
North Dakota State by 23.6
Total 43.6
DraftKings
NDSU -17.5
Total 44.5
Final North Dakota State by 28. North Dakota State beat the spread. 28 points — under the 44.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: North Dakota State -17.25 (open North Dakota State -20.5) · O/U 44.5 (open 46.75) · ML +687.5 / -1175 · North Dakota State 88% no-vig · model vs market +6.4 pts, +6 pct pts (North Dakota State view)
Indoors (dome).
CW Fargodome
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hitLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: hit
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · S. Harris RB · Low rush yds 45 (avg 57) · 78% · 31 ✓Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · T. Hughes QB · Low rush yds 30 (avg 40) · 78% · 25 ✓Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · M. Holman RB · Low rush yds 48 (avg 55) · 78% · 41 ✓
at
San José State Spartans
3-3 · SOS #121
Win 16-13
Week 6
Our number· pregame
San José State by 4.6
Total 42.2
DraftKings
SJSU -4.5
Total 42.5
Final Wyoming by 3. Wyoming beat the spread. 29 points — under the 42.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: San José State -4.25 (open San José State -6.25) · O/U 42.75 (open 43.75) · ML +179.5 / -215 · San José State 65% no-vig · model vs market +0.3 pts, -4 pct pts (San José State view)
Game-time weather: Partly cloudy, 66°F, Wind 5 mph WNW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KRHV)
CBSSN CEFCU Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: hit
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hitUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: hit
vs
Northern Illinois Huskies
0-6 · SOS #59
Win 41-23
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Wyoming by 3.7
Total 39.1
DraftKings
WYO -7
Total 42.5
Final Wyoming by 18. Wyoming beat the spread. 64 points — over the 42.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Wyoming -7.5 (open Wyoming -7.25) · O/U 42.25 (open 39.25) · ML +232.5 / -285 · Wyoming 71% no-vig · model vs market -3.8 pts, -12 pct pts (Wyoming view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 70°F, Wind 13 mph WSW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLAR)
CW War Memorial Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missed
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: missed
Bounce-back dog vs weak-offense fav underStudy · Moderate Under: Favorite implied 24–31, weak favorite offense, underdog missed the spread last game: Record 273 hits, 188 misses (59% hit rate) over 461 graded gamesFavorite implied 24–31, weak favorite offense, underdog missed the spread last game: missed (n=461) · Favorite implied 24–31, weak favorite offense, underdog missed the spread last game
TD-shy dog vs sloppy fav under2026 combo · Held up Under: Underdog red-zone TD rate: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): bottom-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 22 hits, 4 misses (85% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesUnderdog red-zone TD rate: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): bottom-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: missed (n=26; wk 5–7 11-1) · Underdog red-zone TD rate: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): bottom-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats
vs
Air Force Falcons
5-2 · SOS #105
Win 28-14
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Air Force by 8.2
Total 45.8
DraftKings
AFA -7
Total 46.5
Final Wyoming by 14. Wyoming beat the spread. 42 points — under the 46.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Air Force -7 · O/U 46.5 · ML -260 / +210 · Wyoming 32% no-vig · model vs market -1.2 pts, -2 pct pts (Wyoming view)
Game-time weather: Partly cloudy, 48°F, Wind 3 mph WSW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLAR)
CW War Memorial Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: hit
3rd-down fav vs red-zone-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 38 hits, 1 misses (97% hit rate) over 39 graded gamesUnderdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: missed (n=39; wk 5–7 21-1) · Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats Unranked 3rd-down fav2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 53 hits, 6 misses (90% hit rate) over 59 graded gamesNeither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: missed (n=59; wk 5–7 26-3) · Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats
at
UNLV Rebels
4-3 · SOS #82
Sun, Nov 8, 3:30 AM
Week 10
Proj 17-26 · 27%
Our number
UNLV by 9
Total 43
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
CBSSN Allegiant Stadium
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games
at
UTEP Miners
1-6 · SOS #76
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 27-15 · 79%
Our number
Wyoming by 12
Total 42
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Sun Bowl
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · T. Jones RB · Low rush yds 53 (avg 44) · 77%K. Thomas RB · Low rec yds 31 (avg 45) · 74%
vs
New Mexico Lobos
6-1 · SOS #129
Sun, Nov 22, 2:00 AM
Week 12
Proj 13-28 · 17%
Our number
New Mexico by 15
Total 41
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
FS1 War Memorial Stadium
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · T. Hughes QB · Low rush yds 64 (avg 76) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · S. Harris RB · Low rush yds 41 (avg 47) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · M. Holman RB · Low rush yds 49 (avg 55) · 78%
vs
UConn Huskies
4-3 · SOS #132
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 22-25 · 41%
Our number
UConn by 3
Total 47
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
War Memorial Stadium
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games

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Wyoming Cowboys stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

-9.8

108th in FBS

Adj. offense

17.1

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

26.9

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	19.5	126 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	20.0	34 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	5.86	85 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	5.48	63 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	195.5	37 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	137.8	132 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	203.6	125 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	168.1	17 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	1.25	119 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	0.38	132 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	2.38	47 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	2.00	85 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	+0.04	97 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	+0.07	86 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	42.2%	78 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	44.7%	117 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	13.7%	46 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	11.4%	64 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	13.0%	96 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	14.7%	106 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	3.44	114 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	3.37	28 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 31	43 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 27	32 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	56.9	138 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	+0.15	29 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	-0.11	129 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	+0.09	97 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	+0.02	59 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	49.4%	16 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	38.6%	104 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	14.7%	29 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	30.3%	84 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	30.8%	85 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	34.9%	115 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	40.2%	89 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	50.1%	118 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	41.9%	8 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

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