Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected San José State 23.4, Wyoming 18.8 at CEFCU Stadium in Week 6. That is a lean: San José State wins about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.6 points and 42.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans low scoring.
Wyoming is 2-3, scoring 14.2 and allowing 22 points per game (-7.8 per game). San José State is 3-2, scoring 22.6 and allowing 25 points per game (-2.4 per game).
Expect Wyoming to find it hard going: San José State's below-average defense (111th) outranks Wyoming's struggling offense (137th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 14.8 points against an average defense). Wyoming's middle-of-the-pack defense (82nd) should limit San José State's struggling offense (120th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Wyoming by 18 and San José State by 27 about 80% of the time.
San José State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour San José State by about 2.5. The game is on CBSSN.
Result: Wyoming 16, San José State 13. Wyoming won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 7.6 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Wyoming / San José State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | San José State -6.25 → San José State -4.25 | 43.75 → 42.75 | +179.5 / -215 |
| Bovada | San José State -6.5 → San José State -4 | 44 → 43 | +205 / -245 |
| DraftKings | San José State -6 → San José State -4.5 | 43.5 → 42.5 | +154 / -185 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | San José State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | San José State -4.5 | 42.1 | 62% |
| Market consensus | San José State -4.5 | 42.8 | 65% |
| Blended projection | San José State -4.5 | 44.1 | 62% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- San José State win probability
- model 62% · market (no-vig) 65% · difference -4 pts
- Margin
- model San José State -4.6 · market San José State -4.25 · difference +0.3 pts (San José State view)
- Total
- model 42.1 · market 42.75 · difference -0.6
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Wyoming 18.8, San José State 23.4 | San José State 62%wrong winner | 7.6 | 13.1 |
| New formula | Wyoming 19.4, San José State 22.9 | San José State 59%wrong winner | 6.5 | 13.2 |
Final: Wyoming 16, San José State 13. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Wyoming vs San José State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Wyoming | San José State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 14.2#135 | 22.6#106 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.0#58 | 25.0#83 |
| Yards per play | 5.44#113 | 5.61#106 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.62#75 | 5.70#84 |
| Rushing yards per game | 158.2#90 | 138.8#111 |
| Net passing yards per game | 143.4#131 | 243.6#56 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 202.0#126 | 135.4#50 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 168.6#30 | 255.6#122 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.60#131 | 1.20#102 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.40#126 | 1.20#45 |
| Sacks per game | 1.60#94 | 2.00#74 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.80#83 | 1.80#82 |
| Stat | Wyoming | San José State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.01#115 | -0.02#117 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03#70 | +0.01#59 |
| Success rate | 40.0%#107 | 37.0%#125 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.0%#111 | 41.2%#77 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.4%#59 | 12.3%#85 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.8%#78 | 11.0%#49 |
| Havoc rate | 12.8%#101 | 14.2%#70 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.5%#115 | 14.6%#103 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.24#122 | 3.92#86 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.49#42 | 3.41#35 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#73 | own 28#100 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#46 | own 30#95 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 55.4#135 | 68.2#47 |
| Stat | Wyoming | San José State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08#78 | -0.13#135 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.12#123 | +0.09#67 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#48 | +0.02#62 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05#73 | -0.00#53 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.3%#65 | 33.1%#135 |
| Passing success rate | 38.5%#103 | 41.1%#85 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.8%#58 | 21.3%#120 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.7%#94 | 25.9%#111 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.2%#86 | 26.2%#38 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.7%#111 | 32.9%#122 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.3%#91 | 38.4%#76 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 48.4%#122 | 57.5%#98 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 50.5%#42 | 65.6%#96 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Wyoming schedule · San José State schedule · all Week 6 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.