Week 6 College Football Projections (2026)

Updated Oct 29, 2026

Week 6 of the 2026 college football season has 58 FBS games on our board. The closest projected matchup is Wake Forest at NC State (0.6-point margin), the highest projected total is Charlotte at North Texas (64.6 points) and the lowest is Texas at Oklahoma (40). 11 games are rated a toss-up (neither side above 58%).

58 games have finished so far: the model picked the winner in 40 of them (69%).

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Every FBS game

CSV download · Sports Pro

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

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FinalESPN2
Southern Miss20final 34
Troy29.8final 55
Final: Southern Miss 34, Troy 55. We projected Troy 29.8-20 (74%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Clear, 70°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KTOI)
Our number· pregame
Troy by 9.8
Total 49.8
DraftKings
Troy -9.5
Total 51.5
Final Troy by 21. Troy beat the spread. 89 points — over the 51.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Troy -9.5 · O/U 51.5 (open 49) · ML +317.5 / -415 · Troy 77% no-vig · model vs market +0.3 pts, -3 pct pts (Troy view)
Troy 74% · total 49.8Full preview →
FinalCBSSN
Jacksonville State25.9final 27
Kennesaw State24final 26
Final: Jacksonville State 27, Kennesaw State 26. We projected Jacksonville State 25.9-24 (55%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Clear, 64°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KRYY)
Our number· pregame
Jacksonville State by 1.9
Total 49.8
DraftKings
Jacksonville State -3
Total 48.5
Final Jacksonville State by 1. Kennesaw State beat the spread. 53 points — over the 48.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Jacksonville State -3 (open Jacksonville State -2.75) · O/U 48.75 (open 49.25) · ML -156.5 / +132 · Kennesaw State 41% no-vig · model vs market +1.1 pts, +4 pct pts (Kennesaw State view)
Jacksonville State 55% · total 49.8Full preview →
FinalESPN2
New Mexico State20.2final 3
Florida International25.7final 22
Final: New Mexico State 3, Florida International 22. We projected Florida International 25.7-20.2 (64%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Mostly clear, 79°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMIA)
Our number· pregame
Florida International by 5.5
Total 45.8
DraftKings
Florida International -7
Total 46.5
Final Florida International by 19. Florida International beat the spread. 25 points — under the 46.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Florida International -7 (open Florida International -4.25) · O/U 46.75 (open 47) · ML +187.5 / -225 · Florida International 66% no-vig · model vs market -1.5 pts, -2 pct pts (Florida International view)
Florida International 64% · total 45.8Full preview →
FinalESPNU
Sam Houston19.6final 3
Liberty31.6final 35
Final: Sam Houston 3, Liberty 35. We projected Liberty 31.6-19.6 (78%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Clear, 63°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLYH)
Our number· pregame
Liberty by 12
Total 51.2
DraftKings
Liberty -13.5
Total 52.5
Final Liberty by 32. Liberty beat the spread. 38 points — under the 52.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Liberty -13.5 (open Liberty -13.75) · O/U 52.75 (open 52.5) · ML +417.5 / -575 · Liberty 82% no-vig · model vs market -1.5 pts, -3 pct pts (Liberty view)
Liberty 78% · total 51.2Full preview →
FinalCBSSN
Missouri State26.3final 13
Western Kentucky29.8final 34
Final: Missouri State 13, Western Kentucky 34. We projected Western Kentucky 29.8-26.3 (59%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Clear, 70°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBWG)
Our number· pregame
Western Kentucky by 3.5
Total 56
DraftKings
Missouri State -1.5
Total 56.5
Final Western Kentucky by 21. Western Kentucky beat the spread. 47 points — under the 56.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Missouri State -1.75 (open Western Kentucky -2.5) · O/U 56.75 (open 56) · ML -6 / -14 · Western Kentucky 51% no-vig · model vs market +5.3 pts, +8 pct pts (Western Kentucky view)
Western Kentucky 59% · total 56Full preview →
FinalESPN
South Florida24.6final 24
UTSA31.2final 31
Final: South Florida 24, UTSA 31. We projected UTSA 31.2-24.6 (67%) — winner called correctly.
Indoors (dome).
Our number· pregame
UTSA by 6.6
Total 55.7
DraftKings
UTSA -5.5
Total 49.5
Final UTSA by 7. UTSA beat the spread. 55 points — over the 49.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: UTSA -5.5 (open UTSA -6.75) · O/U 49.5 (open 51) · ML +202.5 / -245 · UTSA 68% no-vig · model vs market +1.1 pts, -1 pct pts (UTSA view)
UTSA 67% · total 55.7Full preview →
FinalESPN2
South Alabama28.7final 56
Arkansas State31.1final 49
Final: South Alabama 56, Arkansas State 49. We projected Arkansas State 31.1-28.7 (56%) — the model missed this one.
Game-time weather: Clear, 79°F, Wind 8 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KJBR)
Our number· pregame
Arkansas State by 2.4
Total 59.8
DraftKings
Arkansas State -3
Total 60.5
Final South Alabama by 7. South Alabama beat the spread. 105 points — over the 60.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Arkansas State -3 (open Arkansas State -1.25) · O/U 60.25 (open 58.25) · ML +15.5 / -138.5 · Arkansas State 55% no-vig · model vs market -0.6 pts, +1 pct pts (Arkansas State view)
Arkansas State 56% · total 59.8Full preview →
FinalESPN
Florida State28.6final 20
Louisville30final 44
Final: Florida State 20, Louisville 44. We projected Louisville 30-28.6 (54%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Clear, 73°F, Wind 6 mph ESE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSDF)
Our number· pregame
Louisville by 1.4
Total 58.6
DraftKings
Louisville -4
Total 60.5
Final Louisville by 24. Louisville beat the spread. 64 points — over the 60.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Louisville -4.25 (open Louisville -4.75) · O/U 60.5 (open 58.5) · ML +175 / -211 · Louisville 65% no-vig · model vs market -2.8 pts, -11 pct pts (Louisville view)
Louisville 54% · total 58.6Full preview →
FinalFox
Iowa23.4final 41
Washington21.4final 24
Final: Iowa 41, Washington 24. We projected Iowa 23.4-21.4 (55%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: 53°F, Wind 2 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (SEAW1)
Our number· pregame
Iowa by 2
Total 44.8
DraftKings
Washington -3
Total 41.5
Final Iowa by 17. Iowa beat the spread. 65 points — over the 41.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Washington -3 (open Washington -2) · O/U 41 (open 42) · ML +120 / -142.5 · Washington 56% no-vig · model vs market -5.0 pts, -12 pct pts (Washington view)
Iowa 55% · total 44.8Full preview →
FinalCW
Washington State21.2final 16
Utah State25.8final 17
Final: Washington State 16, Utah State 17. We projected Utah State 25.8-21.2 (62%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Clear, 73°F, Wind 7 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLGU)
Our number· pregame
Utah State by 4.6
Total 46.9
DraftKings
Utah State -4
Total 44.5
Final Utah State by 1. Washington State beat the spread. 33 points — under the 44.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Utah State -4 (open Utah State -4.75) · O/U 44 (open 43.5) · ML +154.5 / -182.5 · Utah State 62% no-vig · model vs market +0.6 pts, -0 pct pts (Utah State view)
Utah State 62% · total 46.9Full preview →
FinalCBSSN
Wyoming18.8final 16
San José State23.4final 13
Final: Wyoming 16, San José State 13. We projected San José State 23.4-18.8 (62%) — the model missed this one.
Game-time weather: Partly cloudy, 66°F, Wind 5 mph WNW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KRHV)
Our number· pregame
San José State by 4.6
Total 42.1
DraftKings
San José State -4.5
Total 42.5
Final Wyoming by 3. Wyoming beat the spread. 29 points — under the 42.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: San José State -4.25 (open San José State -6.25) · O/U 42.75 (open 43.75) · ML +179.5 / -215 · San José State 65% no-vig · model vs market +0.3 pts, -4 pct pts (San José State view)
San José State 62% · total 42.1Full preview →
FinalESPN
Iowa State18final 10
BYU34.4final 24
Final: Iowa State 10, BYU 24. We projected BYU 34.4-18 (86%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Clear, 73°F.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KPVU)
Our number· pregame
BYU by 16.4
Total 52.4
DraftKings
BYU -11.5
Total 46.5
Final BYU by 14. BYU beat the spread. 34 points — under the 46.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: BYU -11.25 (open BYU -12.75) · O/U 46.5 (open 49) · ML +345 / -455 · BYU 78% no-vig · model vs market +5.1 pts, +7 pct pts (BYU view)
BYU 86% · total 52.4Full preview →
FinalFox
Indiana31.3final 20
Nebraska22.9final 17
Final: Indiana 20, Nebraska 17. We projected Indiana 31.3-22.9 (71%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Clear, 86°F.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLNK)
Our number· pregame
Indiana by 8.4
Total 54.2
DraftKings
Indiana -9.5
Total 48.5
Final Indiana by 3. Nebraska beat the spread. 37 points — under the 48.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Indiana -9 · O/U 48.25 (open 51) · ML -340 / +270 · Nebraska 26% no-vig · model vs market +0.6 pts, +3 pct pts (Nebraska view)
Indiana 71% · total 54.2Full preview →
FinalABC/Disney+
Texas A&M25.5final 6
Missouri26.4final 27
Final: Texas A&M 6, Missouri 27. We projected Missouri 26.4-25.5 (52%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 8 mph ESE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KHUF)
Our number· pregame
Missouri by 0.9
Total 51.9
DraftKings
Missouri -4.5
Total 50.5
Final Missouri by 21. Missouri beat the spread. 33 points — under the 50.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Missouri -4.5 (open Missouri -3.25) · O/U 50.5 (open 49.25) · ML +170 / -202.5 · Missouri 64% no-vig · model vs market -3.6 pts, -12 pct pts (Missouri view)
Missouri 52% · total 51.9Full preview →
FinalESPN2
UCF26.1final 28
Oklahoma State23.2final 42
Final: UCF 28, Oklahoma State 42. We projected UCF 26.1-23.2 (58%) — the model missed this one.
Game-time weather: Clear, 88°F, Wind 13 mph S.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSWO)
Our number· pregame
UCF by 2.9
Total 49.3
DraftKings
Oklahoma State -10.5
Total 53.5
Final Oklahoma State by 14. Oklahoma State beat the spread. 70 points — over the 53.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Oklahoma State -10.25 (open Oklahoma State -10) · O/U 53.5 (open 53.25) · ML +315 / -412.5 · Oklahoma State 77% no-vig · model vs market -13.1 pts, -35 pct pts (Oklahoma State view)
UCF 58% · total 49.3Full preview →
FinalESPN
North Carolina20final 21
Pittsburgh31.3final 17
Final: North Carolina 21, Pittsburgh 17. We projected Pittsburgh 31.3-20 (77%) — the model missed this one.
Game-time weather: Clear, 68°F, Wind 7 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KAGC)
Our number· pregame
Pittsburgh by 11.2
Total 51.3
DraftKings
Pittsburgh -3.5
Total 47.5
Final North Carolina by 4. North Carolina beat the spread. 38 points — under the 47.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Pittsburgh -3.5 (open Pittsburgh -3.75) · O/U 47.5 (open 47.25) · ML +152.5 / -180 · Pittsburgh 62% no-vig · model vs market +7.7 pts, +15 pct pts (Pittsburgh view)
Pittsburgh 77% · total 51.3Full preview →
FinalTNT
Arizona35.1final 52
West Virginia24.9final 31
Final: Arizona 52, West Virginia 31. We projected Arizona 35.1-24.9 (75%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Clear, 68°F, Wind 11 mph ESE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMGW)
Our number· pregame
Arizona by 10.2
Total 60
DraftKings
Arizona -3.5
Total 61.5
Final Arizona by 21. Arizona beat the spread. 83 points — over the 61.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Arizona -3.5 (open Arizona -3) · O/U 61.5 (open 60.75) · ML -160 / +135 · West Virginia 41% no-vig · model vs market -6.7 pts, -16 pct pts (West Virginia view)
Arizona 75% · total 60Full preview →
FinalCW/ESPN Unlmtd
Wake Forest29.3final 38
NC State29.9final 14
Final: Wake Forest 38, NC State 14. We projected NC State 29.9-29.3 (52%) — the model missed this one.
Game-time weather: Mostly cloudy, 68°F, Wind 9 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KRDU)
Our number· pregame
NC State by 0.6
Total 59.1
DraftKings
Wake Forest -4
Total 56.5
Final Wake Forest by 24. Wake Forest beat the spread. 52 points — under the 56.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Wake Forest -3.75 · O/U 56.5 (open 59.75) · ML -175 / +147.5 · NC State 39% no-vig · model vs market +4.4 pts, +13 pct pts (NC State view)
NC State 52% · total 59.1Full preview →
FinalCBSSN
Tulane20.3final 17
Army25final 20
Final: Tulane 17, Army 20. We projected Army 25-20.3 (62%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Clear, 64°F, Wind 5 mph.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSWF)
Our number· pregame
Army by 4.7
Total 45.3
DraftKings
Army -5.5
Total 48.5
Final Army by 3. Tulane beat the spread. 37 points — under the 48.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Army -5.5 (open Army -3) · O/U 48.5 (open 47) · ML +152.5 / -182.5 · Army 62% no-vig · model vs market -0.8 pts, +0 pct pts (Army view)
Army 62% · total 45.3Full preview →
FinalESPN+
Sacramento State20.1final 10
Bowling Green26.4final 38
Final: Sacramento State 10, Bowling Green 38. We projected Bowling Green 26.4-20.1 (66%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Clear, 73°F, Wind 8 mph ESE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KTDZ)
Our number· pregame
Bowling Green by 6.3
Total 46.4
DraftKings
Bowling Green -9.5
Total 43.5
Final Bowling Green by 28. Bowling Green beat the spread. 48 points — over the 43.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Bowling Green -9.5 (open Bowling Green -7.25) · O/U 43.25 (open 44.25) · ML +242.5 / -300 · Bowling Green 72% no-vig · model vs market -3.2 pts, -6 pct pts (Bowling Green view)
Bowling Green 66% · total 46.4Full preview →
FinalBTN
Ball State10.9final 14
Northwestern41.1final 45
Final: Ball State 14, Northwestern 45. We projected Northwestern 41.1-10.9 (98%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Clear, 81°F.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KPWK)
Our number· pregame
Northwestern by 30.2
Total 51.9
DraftKings
Northwestern -34.5
Total 53.5
Final Northwestern by 31. Ball State beat the spread. 59 points — over the 53.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Northwestern -34.75 (open Northwestern -36.25) · O/U 53.25 (open 52.75) · model vs market -4.6 pts (Northwestern view)
Northwestern 98% · total 51.9Full preview →
FinalSEC Network
South Carolina27final 38
Florida34.1final 19
Final: South Carolina 38, Florida 19. We projected Florida 34.1-27 (68%) — the model missed this one.
Game-time weather: Mostly cloudy, 86°F, Wind 13 mph SE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KGNV)
Our number· pregame
Florida by 7.1
Total 61
DraftKings
Florida -10.5
Total 59.5
Final South Carolina by 19. South Carolina beat the spread. 57 points — under the 59.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Florida -10.5 (open Florida -14.25) · O/U 59.5 (open 59.25) · ML +352.5 / -472.5 · Florida 79% no-vig · model vs market -3.4 pts, -11 pct pts (Florida view)
Florida 68% · total 61Full preview →
FinalESPN+
Rice17.2final 12
East Carolina29.5final 28
Final: Rice 12, East Carolina 28. We projected East Carolina 29.5-17.2 (79%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 77°F, Wind 10 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KPGV)
Our number· pregame
East Carolina by 12.3
Total 46.6
DraftKings
East Carolina -10
Total 46.5
Final East Carolina by 16. East Carolina beat the spread. 40 points — under the 46.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: East Carolina -10 · O/U 46.25 (open 48.75) · ML +302.5 / -395 · East Carolina 76% no-vig · model vs market +2.3 pts, +3 pct pts (East Carolina view)
East Carolina 79% · total 46.6Full preview →
FinalESPN+
Old Dominion23.7final 10
App State28.1final 3
Final: Old Dominion 10, App State 3. We projected App State 28.1-23.7 (61%) — the model missed this one.
Game-time weather: Rain, 54°F.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KGEV)
Our number· pregame
App State by 4.4
Total 51.8
DraftKings
App State -8.5
Total 45.5
Final Old Dominion by 7. Old Dominion beat the spread. 13 points — under the 45.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: App State -9 (open App State -9.75) · O/U 45.5 (open 50.25) · ML +290 / -375 · App State 75% no-vig · model vs market -4.6 pts, -14 pct pts (App State view)
App State 61% · total 51.8Full preview →
FinalESPN+
Miami (OH)28.4final 20
Massachusetts23.7final 19
Final: Miami (OH) 20, Massachusetts 19. We projected Miami (OH) 28.4-23.7 (62%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Mostly cloudy, 64°F, Wind 5 mph SSW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KCEF)
Our number· pregame
Miami (OH) by 4.7
Total 52
DraftKings
Miami (OH) -6
Total 44.5
Final Miami (OH) by 1. Massachusetts beat the spread. 39 points — under the 44.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Miami (OH) -6 (open Miami (OH) -2.5) · O/U 44.5 (open 47.25) · ML -180 / +150 · Massachusetts 39% no-vig · model vs market +1.3 pts, -1 pct pts (Massachusetts view)
Miami (OH) 62% · total 52Full preview →
FinalNeutral site
Texas24.9final 24
Oklahoma15.2final 27
Final: Texas 24, Oklahoma 27. We projected Texas 24.9-15.2 (74%) — the model missed this one.
Game-time weather: Clear, 90°F, Wind 11 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KDAL)
Our number· pregame
Texas by 9.7
Total 40
DraftKings
Texas -7.5
Total 40.5
Final Oklahoma by 3. Oklahoma beat the spread. 51 points — over the 40.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Texas -7.75 (open Texas -7) · O/U 40.75 (open 44.25) · ML -332.5 / +267.5 · Oklahoma 26% no-vig · model vs market -1.9 pts, +0 pct pts (Oklahoma view)
Texas 74% · total 40Full preview →
FinalNBC
Stanford6.5final 7
Notre Dame48.8final 58
Final: Stanford 7, Notre Dame 58. We projected Notre Dame 48.8-6.5 (100%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Clear, 73°F, Wind 9 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSBN)
Our number· pregame
Notre Dame by 42.3
Total 55.2
DraftKings
Notre Dame -40.5
Total 55.5
Final Notre Dame by 51. Notre Dame beat the spread. 65 points — over the 55.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Notre Dame -40 (open Notre Dame -38.25) · O/U 55.25 (open 54) · model vs market +2.3 pts (Notre Dame view)
Notre Dame 100% · total 55.2Full preview →
FinalESPN/Disney+
Ole Miss29.6final 52
Vanderbilt29final 17
Final: Ole Miss 52, Vanderbilt 17. We projected Ole Miss 29.6-29 (52%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 64°F, Wind 11 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBNA)
Our number· pregame
Ole Miss by 0.6
Total 58.6
DraftKings
Ole Miss -9.5
Total 54.5
Final Ole Miss by 35. Ole Miss beat the spread. 69 points — over the 54.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Ole Miss -9.25 (open Ole Miss -10) · O/U 54.25 (open 58.75) · ML -382.5 / +292.5 · Vanderbilt 24% no-vig · model vs market +8.7 pts, +24 pct pts (Vanderbilt view)
Ole Miss 52% · total 58.6Full preview →
FinalCBS
UCLA21.9final 17
Oregon40.2final 15
Final: UCLA 17, Oregon 15. We projected Oregon 40.2-21.9 (88%) — the model missed this one.
Game-time weather: Mostly clear, 57°F, Wind 6 mph NNE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KEUG)
Our number· pregame
Oregon by 18.3
Total 62.1
DraftKings
Oregon -10
Total 57.5
Final UCLA by 2. UCLA beat the spread. 32 points — under the 57.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Oregon -10.25 (open Oregon -12) · O/U 57.75 (open 60) · ML +337.5 / -447.5 · Oregon 78% no-vig · model vs market +8.1 pts, +10 pct pts (Oregon view)
Oregon 88% · total 62.1Full preview →

FinalFox
Houston30.7final 35
Kansas State29.4final 16
Final: Houston 35, Kansas State 16. We projected Houston 30.7-29.4 (53%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Clear, 88°F, Wind 15 mph S.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMHK)
Our number· pregame
Houston by 1.3
Total 60
DraftKings
Kansas State -2.5
Total 55.5
Final Houston by 19. Houston beat the spread. 51 points — under the 55.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Kansas State -2.5 · O/U 55 (open 55.75) · ML +120 / -141 · Kansas State 56% no-vig · model vs market -3.8 pts, -10 pct pts (Kansas State view)
Houston 53% · total 60Full preview →
FinalESPN2
Duke28.8final 25
Georgia Tech25.3final 28
Final: Duke 25, Georgia Tech 28. We projected Duke 28.8-25.3 (59%) — the model missed this one.
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 66°F, Wind 7 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KFTY)
Our number· pregame
Duke by 3.5
Total 54.1
DraftKings
Duke -4.5
Total 45.5
Final Georgia Tech by 3. Georgia Tech beat the spread. 53 points — over the 45.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Duke -4.5 (open Duke -7) · O/U 45.25 (open 48.75) · ML -240 / +197.5 · Georgia Tech 33% no-vig · model vs market +1.0 pts, +8 pct pts (Georgia Tech view)
Duke 59% · total 54.1Full preview →
FinalACC Network
Virginia Tech31.4final 20
California24.7final 25
Final: Virginia Tech 20, California 25. We projected Virginia Tech 31.4-24.7 (67%) — the model missed this one.
Game-time weather: 64°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (D3169)
Our number· pregame
Virginia Tech by 6.7
Total 56.1
DraftKings
Virginia Tech -11.5
Total 51.5
Final California by 5. California beat the spread. 45 points — under the 51.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Virginia Tech -10.75 (open Virginia Tech -9.5) · O/U 52.25 (open 53.25) · ML -390 / +302.5 · California 24% no-vig · model vs market +4.1 pts, +9 pct pts (California view)
Virginia Tech 67% · total 56.1Full preview →
FinalFS1
Illinois26.4final 38
Michigan State22.9final 37
Final: Illinois 38, Michigan State 37. We projected Illinois 26.4-22.9 (59%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 9 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLAN)
Our number· pregame
Illinois by 3.5
Total 49.2
DraftKings
Illinois -2.5
Total 48.5
Final Illinois by 1. Michigan State beat the spread. 75 points — over the 48.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Illinois -2.5 (open Illinois -3) · O/U 48.25 (open 48.75) · ML -158.5 / +135 · Michigan State 41% no-vig · model vs market -1.0 pts, -0 pct pts (Michigan State view)
Illinois 59% · total 49.2Full preview →
FinalESPN+
Charlotte18.9final 10
North Texas45.7final 50
Final: Charlotte 10, North Texas 50. We projected North Texas 45.7-18.9 (96%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Clear, 90°F, Wind 10 mph SE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KDTO)
Our number· pregame
North Texas by 26.8
Total 64.6
DraftKings
North Texas -27.5
Total 58.5
Final North Texas by 40. North Texas beat the spread. 60 points — over the 58.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: North Texas -27.75 · O/U 58.25 (open 58.5) · ML +1500 / -4750 · North Texas 94% no-vig · model vs market -0.9 pts, +2 pct pts (North Texas view)
North Texas 96% · total 64.6Full preview →
FinalCBSSN
Tulsa21.3final 26
Navy27.5final 34
Final: Tulsa 26, Navy 34. We projected Navy 27.5-21.3 (66%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Clear, 70°F, Wind 9 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KNAK)
Our number· pregame
Navy by 6.2
Total 48.7
DraftKings
Navy -3
Total 47.5
Final Navy by 8. Navy beat the spread. 60 points — over the 47.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Navy -3 (open Navy -2.5) · O/U 47.5 (open 49) · ML +120 / -142.5 · Navy 56% no-vig · model vs market +3.2 pts, +10 pct pts (Navy view)
Navy 66% · total 48.7Full preview →
FinalESPN+
Eastern Michigan29.3final 25
Akron25final 23
Final: Eastern Michigan 25, Akron 23. We projected Eastern Michigan 29.3-25 (61%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Clear, 66°F, Wind 6 mph ESE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KAKR)
Our number· pregame
Eastern Michigan by 4.2
Total 54.3
DraftKings
Eastern Michigan -4.5
Total 51.5
Final Eastern Michigan by 2. Akron beat the spread. 48 points — under the 51.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Eastern Michigan -5 (open Eastern Michigan -6.5) · O/U 51.25 · ML -224 / +185 · Akron 34% no-vig · model vs market +0.8 pts, +6 pct pts (Akron view)
Eastern Michigan 61% · total 54.3Full preview →
FinalESPN+
Buffalo19.6final 23
Toledo39.4final 8
Final: Buffalo 23, Toledo 8. We projected Toledo 39.4-19.6 (90%) — the model missed this one.
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 6 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KDUH)
Our number· pregame
Toledo by 19.8
Total 59
DraftKings
Toledo -18.5
Total 54.5
Final Buffalo by 15. Buffalo beat the spread. 31 points — under the 54.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Toledo -18.75 (open Toledo -20) · O/U 55 (open 54.75) · ML +700 / -1150 · Toledo 88% no-vig · model vs market +1.1 pts, +2 pct pts (Toledo view)
Toledo 90% · total 59Full preview →
FinalESPN+
Central Michigan20.4final 14
Ohio27.7final 31
Final: Central Michigan 14, Ohio 31. We projected Ohio 27.7-20.4 (68%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Light rain and fog/mist, 61°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KUNI)
Our number· pregame
Ohio by 7.3
Total 48.1
DraftKings
Ohio -2.5
Total 45.5
Final Ohio by 17. Ohio beat the spread. 45 points — under the 45.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Ohio -2.5 (open Ohio -3.25) · O/U 45.75 (open 46.75) · ML +132 / -155 · Ohio 58% no-vig · model vs market +4.8 pts, +10 pct pts (Ohio view)
Ohio 68% · total 48.1Full preview →
FinalESPN+
Kent State14.1final 7
Western Michigan33.9final 38
Final: Kent State 7, Western Michigan 38. We projected Western Michigan 33.9-14.1 (90%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Clear, 73°F, Wind 7 mph S.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KAZO)
Our number· pregame
Western Michigan by 19.8
Total 47.9
DraftKings
Western Michigan -13.5
Total 43.5
Final Western Michigan by 31. Western Michigan beat the spread. 45 points — over the 43.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Western Michigan -13.75 · O/U 43.5 (open 44.5) · ML +437.5 / -612.5 · Western Michigan 82% no-vig · model vs market +6.1 pts, +8 pct pts (Western Michigan view)
Western Michigan 90% · total 47.9Full preview →
FinalESPNU
UConn27.5final 34
Temple29.5final 20
Final: UConn 34, Temple 20. We projected Temple 29.5-27.5 (55%) — the model missed this one.
Game-time weather: 72°F, Wind 7 mph SE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KPHL)
Our number· pregame
Temple by 2
Total 56.9
DraftKings
Temple -3.5
Total 55.5
Final UConn by 14. UConn beat the spread. 54 points — under the 55.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Temple -3.75 · O/U 55.5 (open 53.75) · ML +155 / -182.5 · Temple 62% no-vig · model vs market -1.7 pts, -7 pct pts (Temple view)
Temple 55% · total 56.9Full preview →
FinalBTN
Maryland10.6final 16
Ohio State45.2final 45
Final: Maryland 16, Ohio State 45. We projected Ohio State 45.2-10.6 (99%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Light rain, 61°F, Wind 5 mph ESE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KOSU)
Our number· pregame
Ohio State by 34.6
Total 55.8
DraftKings
Ohio State -31.5
Total 56.5
Final Ohio State by 29. Maryland beat the spread. 61 points — over the 56.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Ohio State -31.25 (open Ohio State -34.75) · O/U 56.25 · model vs market +3.4 pts (Ohio State view)
Ohio State 99% · total 55.8Full preview →
FinalSEC Network
Tennessee36.1final 24
Arkansas19.2final 17
Final: Tennessee 24, Arkansas 17. We projected Tennessee 36.1-19.2 (87%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Clear, 88°F, Wind 3 mph SSW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KFYV)
Our number· pregame
Tennessee by 16.9
Total 55.2
DraftKings
Tennessee -13.5
Total 51.5
Final Tennessee by 7. Arkansas beat the spread. 41 points — under the 51.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Tennessee -13.75 (open Tennessee -13.5) · O/U 51.5 (open 50.75) · ML -580 / +417.5 · Arkansas 18% no-vig · model vs market -3.1 pts, -5 pct pts (Arkansas view)
Tennessee 87% · total 55.2Full preview →
FinalUSA Net
San Diego State20.5final 14
Oregon State30.5final 66
Final: San Diego State 14, Oregon State 66. We projected Oregon State 30.5-20.5 (74%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Rain, 52°F, Wind 9 mph W.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KCVO)
Our number· pregame
Oregon State by 10
Total 51
DraftKings
Oregon State -14.5
Total 52.5
Final Oregon State by 52. Oregon State beat the spread. 80 points — over the 52.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Oregon State -14.5 (open Oregon State -14.25) · O/U 52.25 (open 54.75) · ML +465 / -662.5 · Oregon State 83% no-vig · model vs market -4.5 pts, -9 pct pts (Oregon State view)
Oregon State 74% · total 51Full preview →
FinalESPN
LSU30.6final 34
Kentucky22.3final 35
Final: LSU 34, Kentucky 35. We projected LSU 30.6-22.3 (71%) — the model missed this one.
Game-time weather: Mostly cloudy, 57°F, Wind 13 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLEX)
Our number· pregame
LSU by 8.3
Total 52.8
DraftKings
LSU -9.5
Total 50.5
Final Kentucky by 1. Kentucky beat the spread. 69 points — over the 50.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: LSU -9.25 (open LSU -10.25) · O/U 50.5 (open 52.5) · ML -375 / +290 · Kentucky 25% no-vig · model vs market +0.9 pts, +5 pct pts (Kentucky view)
LSU 71% · total 52.8Full preview →
FinalESPN2
UAB19.4final 13
Memphis37.3final 38
Final: UAB 13, Memphis 38. We projected Memphis 37.3-19.4 (88%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 8 mph NNW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMEM)
Our number· pregame
Memphis by 17.9
Total 56.6
DraftKings
Memphis -15.5
Total 55.5
Final Memphis by 25. Memphis beat the spread. 51 points — under the 55.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Memphis -15.25 (open Memphis -14.25) · O/U 55.25 (open 58) · ML +475 / -675 · Memphis 83% no-vig · model vs market +2.6 pts, +5 pct pts (Memphis view)
Memphis 88% · total 56.6Full preview →
FinalFS1
Nevada31.2final 30
UTEP22.5final 13
Final: Nevada 30, UTEP 13. We projected Nevada 31.2-22.5 (72%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Mostly clear, 82°F, Wind 11 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KELP)
Our number· pregame
Nevada by 8.7
Total 53.7
DraftKings
Nevada -10
Total 48.5
Final Nevada by 17. Nevada beat the spread. 43 points — under the 48.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Nevada -10 (open Nevada -9.25) · O/U 48.5 (open 49.5) · ML -367.5 / +287.5 · UTEP 25% no-vig · model vs market +1.3 pts, +4 pct pts (UTEP view)
Nevada 72% · total 53.7Full preview →
FinalCW
North Dakota State29.4final 7
UNLV21final 13
Final: North Dakota State 7, UNLV 13. We projected North Dakota State 29.4-21 (71%) — the model missed this one.
Indoors (dome).
Our number· pregame
North Dakota State by 8.4
Total 50.3
DraftKings
North Dakota State -3
Total 47.5
Final UNLV by 6. UNLV beat the spread. 20 points — under the 47.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: North Dakota State -2.75 (open North Dakota State -3) · O/U 47.5 (open 48.5) · ML -145 / +122.5 · UNLV 43% no-vig · model vs market -5.6 pts, -14 pct pts (UNLV view)
North Dakota State 71% · total 50.3Full preview →
FinalESPN+
Coastal Carolina27final 27
Marshall30.8final 21
Final: Coastal Carolina 27, Marshall 21. We projected Marshall 30.8-27 (60%) — the model missed this one.
Game-time weather: Rain, 59°F, Wind 13 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KHTS)
Our number· pregame
Marshall by 3.8
Total 57.7
DraftKings
Marshall -4.5
Total 57.5
Final Coastal Carolina by 6. Coastal Carolina beat the spread. 48 points — under the 57.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Marshall -4.5 (open Marshall -3) · O/U 57.75 (open 58.5) · ML +147 / -174 · Marshall 61% no-vig · model vs market -0.7 pts, -1 pct pts (Marshall view)
Marshall 60% · total 57.7Full preview →
FinalABC
Georgia31final 20
Alabama32.4final 17
Final: Georgia 20, Alabama 17. We projected Alabama 32.4-31 (54%) — the model missed this one.
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 63°F, Wind 6 mph W.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KTCL)
Our number· pregame
Alabama by 1.4
Total 63.4
DraftKings
Alabama -2.5
Total 51.5
Final Georgia by 3. Georgia beat the spread. 37 points — under the 51.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Alabama -2.5 (open Georgia -2) · O/U 51.75 (open 53) · ML -2.5 / -117.5 · Alabama 52% no-vig · model vs market -1.1 pts, +2 pct pts (Alabama view)
Alabama 54% · total 63.4Full preview →
FinalNBC
USC29.9final 31
Penn State26.3final 23
Final: USC 31, Penn State 23. We projected USC 29.9-26.3 (59%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Clear, 61°F, Wind 3 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KUNV)
Our number· pregame
USC by 3.6
Total 56.2
DraftKings
USC -1.5
Total 54.5
Final USC by 8. USC beat the spread. 54 points — under the 54.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: USC -0.25 (open Penn State -0.25) · O/U 54.5 (open 56.25) · ML -115 / -105 · Penn State 49% no-vig · model vs market -3.3 pts, -8 pct pts (Penn State view)
USC 59% · total 56.2Full preview →
FinalACC Network
Syracuse23.2final 25
Virginia28.3final 28
Final: Syracuse 25, Virginia 28. We projected Virginia 28.3-23.2 (63%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 63°F, Wind 9 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KCHO)
Our number· pregame
Virginia by 5.1
Total 51.5
DraftKings
Virginia -14
Total 49.5
Final Virginia by 3. Syracuse beat the spread. 53 points — over the 49.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Virginia -14 (open Virginia -9.5) · O/U 49.25 (open 50) · ML +347.5 / -460 · Virginia 78% no-vig · model vs market -8.9 pts, -15 pct pts (Virginia view)
Virginia 63% · total 51.5Full preview →
FinalCBSSN
Air Force27.7final 28
Northern Illinois22.9final 7
Final: Air Force 28, Northern Illinois 7. We projected Air Force 27.7-22.9 (62%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: 66°F, Wind 11 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KDKB)
Our number· pregame
Air Force by 4.8
Total 50.5
DraftKings
Air Force -7
Total 48.5
Final Air Force by 21. Air Force beat the spread. 35 points — under the 48.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Air Force -7 (open Air Force -9.5) · O/U 48.5 (open 47) · ML -389 / +295 · Northern Illinois 25% no-vig · model vs market +2.2 pts, +13 pct pts (Northern Illinois view)
Air Force 62% · total 50.5Full preview →
FinalESPN+
Louisiana24.9final 31
Louisiana Tech28.4final 32
Final: Louisiana 31, Louisiana Tech 32. We projected Louisiana Tech 28.4-24.9 (59%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: 73°F, Wind 3 mph WSW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KRSN)
Our number· pregame
Louisiana Tech by 3.5
Total 53.2
DraftKings
Louisiana Tech -3
Total 48.5
Final Louisiana Tech by 1. Louisiana beat the spread. 63 points — over the 48.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Louisiana Tech -3 (open Louisiana Tech -2.75) · O/U 48.25 (open 49) · ML +125 / -147.5 · Louisiana Tech 57% no-vig · model vs market +0.5 pts, +2 pct pts (Louisiana Tech view)
Louisiana Tech 59% · total 53.2Full preview →
FinalESPN
Kansas19.7final 24
Utah35.2final 41
Final: Kansas 24, Utah 41. We projected Utah 35.2-19.7 (85%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Clear, 73°F.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSLC)
Our number· pregame
Utah by 15.5
Total 54.8
DraftKings
Utah -15.5
Total 49.5
Final Utah by 17. Utah beat the spread. 65 points — over the 49.5. Our number and the book's were equally close. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Utah -15.75 (open Utah -15.5) · O/U 49.5 (open 51.75) · ML +500 / -725 · Utah 84% no-vig · model vs market -0.2 pts, +1 pct pts (Utah view)
Utah 85% · total 54.8Full preview →
FinalBTN
Minnesota30.9final 13
Purdue23.4final 41
Final: Minnesota 13, Purdue 41. We projected Minnesota 30.9-23.4 (69%) — the model missed this one.
Game-time weather: Clear, 64°F, Wind 7 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLAF)
Our number· pregame
Minnesota by 7.5
Total 54.3
DraftKings
Minnesota -2.5
Total 48.5
Final Purdue by 28. Purdue beat the spread. 54 points — over the 48.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Minnesota -2.75 (open Minnesota -2.25) · O/U 48.75 (open 51) · ML -136 / +115 · Purdue 45% no-vig · model vs market -4.7 pts, -14 pct pts (Purdue view)
Minnesota 69% · total 54.3Full preview →
FinalESPNU
James Madison32.9final 27
Georgia Southern22.8final 24
Final: James Madison 27, Georgia Southern 24. We projected James Madison 32.9-22.8 (75%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 77°F, Wind 8 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KTBR)
Our number· pregame
James Madison by 10.1
Total 55.7
DraftKings
James Madison -7
Total 51.5
Final James Madison by 3. Georgia Southern beat the spread. 51 points — under the 51.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: James Madison -7 (open James Madison -8.5) · O/U 51.5 (open 54) · ML -330 / +260 · Georgia Southern 27% no-vig · model vs market -3.1 pts, -1 pct pts (Georgia Southern view)
James Madison 75% · total 55.7Full preview →
FinalCW
Boise State28.5final 38
Fresno State21.6final 31
Final: Boise State 38, Fresno State 31. We projected Boise State 28.5-21.6 (67%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Mostly clear, 70°F, Wind 9 mph NW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KFAT)
Our number· pregame
Boise State by 6.9
Total 50.1
DraftKings
Boise State -8.5
Total 48.5
Final Boise State by 7. Fresno State beat the spread. 69 points — over the 48.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Boise State -9 (open Boise State -6.5) · O/U 48.5 · ML -277.5 / +227.5 · Fresno State 30% no-vig · model vs market +2.1 pts, +3 pct pts (Fresno State view)
Boise State 67% · total 50.1Full preview →
FinalFS1
Hawai'i18final 12
Arizona State34.7final 30
Final: Hawai'i 12, Arizona State 30. We projected Arizona State 34.7-18 (86%) — winner called correctly.
Game-time weather: Light rain, 75°F, Wind 7 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KPHX)
Our number· pregame
Arizona State by 16.7
Total 52.7
DraftKings
Arizona State -20.5
Total 51.5
Final Arizona State by 18. Hawai'i beat the spread. 42 points — under the 51.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Arizona State -20.75 (open Arizona State -21.25) · O/U 51.25 (open 50.75) · ML +925 / -1775 · Arizona State 91% no-vig · model vs market -4.1 pts, -4 pct pts (Arizona State view)
Arizona State 86% · total 52.7Full preview →

How these numbers are made

Each team gets opponent-adjusted offense and defense ratings for points, expected points added per play and success rate, built from every snap of play-by-play with garbage time removed. Early in the season the ratings lean on a preseason prior (last two seasons, returning production, roster talent); every game played shifts them toward this year. A fitted model turns the rating gaps plus home field (about 2 points, more in the opening weeks) and rest into a margin and a total, and the margin into a calibrated win probability. See the methodology and track record and the season scorecard for how the model has actually done.

Free weekly projections email

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