Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Minnesota 30.9, Purdue 23.4 at Ross-Ade Stadium in Week 6. That is a solid edge: Minnesota wins about 69% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.5 points and 54.3 combined points.
Minnesota is 4-1, scoring 32 and allowing 18 points per game (+14 per game). Purdue is 2-3, scoring 30.4 and allowing 35 points per game (-4.6 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Minnesota's middle-of-the-pack offense (66th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.7 points against an average defense) against Purdue's below-average defense (109th). Minnesota's strong defense (32nd) should limit Purdue's middle-of-the-pack offense (77th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.8 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Minnesota by 30 and Purdue by 15 about 80% of the time.
Purdue gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Minnesota is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on BTN.
Result: Minnesota 13, Purdue 41. Purdue won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 35.5 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Minnesota / Purdue) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Minnesota -2.25 → Minnesota -2.75 | 51 → 48.75 | -136 / +115 |
| Bovada | Minnesota -2 → Minnesota -3 | 51.5 → 49 | -130 / +110 |
| DraftKings | Minnesota -2.5 | 50.5 → 48.5 | -142 / +120 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Purdue win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Minnesota -7.5 | 54.3 | 31% |
| Market consensus | Minnesota -2.5 | 48.8 | 45% |
| Blended projection | Minnesota -3.5 | 50.0 | 40% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Purdue win probability
- model 31% · market (no-vig) 45% · difference -14 pts
- Margin
- model Minnesota -7.5 · market Minnesota -2.75 · difference -4.7 pts (Purdue view)
- Total
- model 54.3 · market 48.75 · difference +5.5
Model margin is 4.7 pts more toward Minnesota than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Minnesota 30.9, Purdue 23.4 | Minnesota 69%wrong winner | 35.5 | 0.3 |
| New formula | Minnesota 31.8, Purdue 23.4 | Minnesota 71%wrong winner | 36.4 | 1.2 |
Final: Minnesota 13, Purdue 41. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Minnesota vs Purdue: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Minnesota | Purdue |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.0#62 | 30.4#70 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.0#36 | 35.0#129 |
| Yards per play | 5.73#98 | 6.11#72 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.56#15 | 7.13#133 |
| Rushing yards per game | 127.0#120 | 120.2#127 |
| Net passing yards per game | 243.4#57 | 294.0#20 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 110.0#21 | 193.8#118 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 137.2#6 | 254.2#120 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#75 | 0.60#48 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#57 | 0.60#104 |
| Sacks per game | 2.80#26 | 1.40#108 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.60#9 | 2.60#114 |
| Stat | Minnesota | Purdue |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03#120 | +0.16#40 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.03#35 | +0.24#133 |
| Success rate | 43.0%#73 | 47.1%#35 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.0%#63 | 49.5%#135 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.0%#90 | 13.8%#49 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.6%#65 | 19.1%#138 |
| Havoc rate | 18.3%#6 | 11.6%#119 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.8%#63 | 12.8%#66 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.92#85 | 4.18#62 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.58#119 | 4.82#129 |
| Average starting field position | own 37#2 | own 30#71 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 23#3 | own 29#75 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.6#82 | 67.8#50 |
| Stat | Minnesota | Purdue |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.06#122 | -0.04#117 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.01#105 | +0.32#13 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03#67 | +0.24#134 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.08#33 | +0.24#120 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.0%#91 | 39.8%#106 |
| Passing success rate | 45.3%#48 | 53.2%#13 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.9%#115 | 17.4%#77 |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.8%#121 | 34.9%#40 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.3%#78 | 43.0%#135 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.7%#83 | 46.9%#39 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 28.6%#13 | 53.4%#137 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 67.7%#51 | 52.0%#114 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 70.0%#112 | 72.7%#120 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Minnesota schedule · Purdue schedule · all Week 6 projections
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