2026 schedule
Purdue Boilermakers
2026 season so far
Purdue is 3-4 against the 11th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31.3 and allowing 32.3 points per game (-1 per game).
In our opponent-adjusted ratings Purdue ranks 85th of 139 FBS teams overall — 61st on offense and 101st on defense. The offense carries this team more than the defense does.
Next up: at Penn State in Week 9. We project Purdue 23, Penn State 34 — Purdue wins 24% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
Indiana State Sycamores
0-2 · SOS #19
Win 44-19
Week 1
Our number· model now
Purdue by 24
Total 60
DraftKings
PUR -35.5
Total 55.5
Final Purdue by 25. Indiana State beat the spread. 63 points — over the 55.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Purdue -35.5 (open Purdue -35) · O/U 55.75 (open 56.25) · model vs market -11.5 pts (Purdue view)
BTN Ross-Ade Stadium - vs
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
2-0 · SOS #47
Loss 36-38
Week 2
Our number· model now
Wake Forest by 13
Total 57
DraftKings
WAKE -2.5
Total 51.5
Final Wake Forest by 2. Purdue beat the spread. 74 points — over the 51.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Wake Forest -2.5 (open Wake Forest -4) · O/U 51.25 (open 49.75) · ML -166.5 / +142 · Purdue 40% no-vig · model vs market -10.5 pts, -22 pct pts (Purdue view)
FS1 Ross-Ade Stadium - at
UCLA Bruins
3-0 · SOS #42
Loss 38-52
Week 3
Our number· model now
UCLA by 15
Total 55
DraftKings
UCLA -13.5
Total 53.5
Final UCLA by 14. UCLA beat the spread. 90 points — over the 53.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UCLA -13.5 (open UCLA -14.75) · O/U 53 (open 53.25) · ML +482.5 / -700 · UCLA 83% no-vig · model vs market +1.5 pts, -0 pct pts (UCLA view)
BTN Rose Bowl - vs
#3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
4-0 · SOS #49
Loss 10-49
Week 4
Our number· model now
Notre Dame by 30
Total 60
DraftKings
ND -27.5
Total 57.5
Final Notre Dame by 39. Notre Dame beat the spread. 59 points — over the 57.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Notre Dame -27.5 (open Notre Dame -27) · O/U 57.25 (open 57) · ML -4750 / +1500 · Purdue 6% no-vig · model vs market -2.5 pts, -4 pct pts (Purdue view)
Peacock Ross-Ade Stadium - at
Illinois Fighting Illini
2-3 · SOS #28
Win 24-17
Week 5
Our number· model now
Illinois by 11
Total 59
DraftKings
ILL -9.5
Total 62.5
Final Purdue by 7. Purdue beat the spread. 41 points — under the 62.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Illinois -9.75 (open Illinois -10) · O/U 62.5 (open 60) · ML +290 / -372.5 · Illinois 75% no-vig · model vs market +1.3 pts, +1 pct pts (Illinois view)
BTN Gies Memorial Stadium - vs
Minnesota Golden Gophers
4-2 · SOS #75
Win 41-13
Week 6
Our number· model now
Minnesota by 3
Total 53
DraftKings
MINN -2.5
Total 48.5
Final Purdue by 28. Purdue beat the spread. 54 points — over the 48.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Minnesota -2.75 (open Minnesota -2.25) · O/U 48.75 (open 51) · ML -136 / +115 · Purdue 45% no-vig · model vs market -0.2 pts, -2 pct pts (Purdue view)
BTN Ross-Ade Stadium - vs
Washington Huskies
4-3 · SOS #65
Loss 26-38
Week 7
Our number· model now
Washington by 8
Total 58
DraftKings
PUR -3
Total 50.5
Final Washington by 12. Washington beat the spread. 64 points — over the 50.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Purdue -3 (open Purdue -2.75) · O/U 50.5 (open 52) · ML +130 / -152.5 · Purdue 58% no-vig · model vs market -11.0 pts, -29 pct pts (Purdue view)
Fox Ross-Ade Stadium - at
Penn State Nittany Lions
3-4 · SOS #46
Sat, Oct 31, 8:15 PM
Week 9
Proj 23-34 · 24%
Our number
Penn State by 11
Total 57
DraftKings
PSU -7.5
Total 54.5
We're 3.5 points higher on Penn State than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Penn State -7.5 · O/U 54.5 · ML +240 / -292.5 · Penn State 72% no-vig · model vs market +3.5 pts, +5 pct pts (Penn State view)
BTN Beaver Stadium - vs
Maryland Terrapins
2-5 · SOS #40
Sat, Nov 7, 5:30 PM
Week 10
Proj 32-30 · 56%
Our number
Purdue by 2
Total 62
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
BTN Ross-Ade Stadium - at
Iowa Hawkeyes
5-2 · SOS #39
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 16-37 · 9%
Our number
Iowa by 21
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kinnick Stadium - vs
#25 Wisconsin Badgers
5-2 · SOS #22
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 20-29 · 28%
Our number
Wisconsin by 9
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Ross-Ade Stadium - at
#4 Indiana Hoosiers
7-1 · SOS #32
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 11-42 · 2%
Our number
Indiana by 31
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
Times shown in your local time
Purdue Boilermakers stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-3.2
83rd in FBS
Adj. offense
27.4
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
30.6
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 31.3 | 53 / 138 |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 32.3 | 123 / 138 |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.08 | 60 / 138 |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 7.04 | 134 / 138 |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 145.0 | 102 / 138 |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 270.1 | 22 / 138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 170.0 | 94 / 138 |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 258.6 | 126 / 138 |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.71 | 47 / 138 |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.00 | 54 / 138 |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.14 | 121 / 138 |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 2.29 | 101 / 138 |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.12 | 51 / 138 |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.20 | 127 / 138 |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 45.5% | 44 / 138 |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 47.4% | 132 / 138 |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 13.7% | 42 / 138 |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 19.1% | 138 / 138 |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 12.8% | 100 / 138 |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 14.0% | 91 / 138 |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.27 | 51 / 138 |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 4.67 | 125 / 138 |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | own 31 | 41 / 138 |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | own 28 | 59 / 138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 68.3 | 43 / 138 |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.02 | 101 / 138 |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.21 | 32 / 138 |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.14 | 124 / 138 |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.26 | 125 / 138 |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 42.4% | 86 / 138 |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 48.2% | 25 / 138 |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 16.8% | 67 / 138 |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 36.4% | 26 / 138 |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 39.2% | 130 / 138 |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 44.4% | 40 / 138 |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 50.0% | 132 / 138 |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 60.0% | 81 / 138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 71.4% | 122 / 138 |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.