Matchup analysis
Our model projects Penn State 34, Purdue 23 at Beaver Stadium in Week 9. That is a solid edge: Penn State wins about 76% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11 points and 56.1 combined points.
Purdue is 3-4 against the 11th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31.3 and allowing 32.3 points per game (-1 per game). Penn State is 3-4 against the 46th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28.7 and allowing 18.9 points per game (+9.8 per game).
Penn State's strong defense (35th) should limit Purdue's middle-of-the-pack offense (61st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.5 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Penn State's middle-of-the-pack offense (53rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.3 points against an average defense) against Purdue's below-average defense (101st).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Purdue by 12 and Penn State by 34 about 80% of the time.
Penn State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Penn State by about 8.9. The game is on BTN.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Purdue / Penn State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Penn State -7.5 | 54.5 | +240 / -292.5 |
| FanDuel | Penn State -7.5 | 54.5 | +250 / -315 |
| BetRivers | Penn State -7.5 | 54.5 | +240 / -315 |
| DraftKings | Penn State -7.5 | 54.5 | +235 / -290 |
| BetMGM | Penn State -7.5 | 54.5 | +240 / -295 |
| theScore Bet | Penn State -7.5 | 55.5 | +225 / -275 |
| Hard Rock Bet | Penn State -7.5 | 54.5 | +240 / -325 |
| Pinnacle | Penn State -7.5 | 54 | +237 / -290 |
| Bovada | Penn State -8 | 54 | +240 / -290 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Penn State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Penn State -11 | 56.1 | 76% |
| Market consensus | Penn State -7.5 | 54.5 | 72% |
| Blended projection | Penn State -8 | 55.0 | 71% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Penn State win probability
- model 76% · market (no-vig) 72% · difference +5 pts
- Margin
- model Penn State -11 · market Penn State -7.5 · difference +3.5 pts (Penn State view)
- Total
- model 56.1 · market 54.5 · difference +1.6
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies Penn State 74%.
Model margin is 3.5 pts more toward Penn State than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Purdue vs Penn State: stat comparison
| Stat | Purdue | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.3#53 | 28.7#70 |
| Points allowed per game | 32.3#123 | 18.9#28 |
| Yards per play | 6.08#60 | 5.91#79 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.04#134 | 5.58#66 |
| Rushing yards per game | 145.0#102 | 133.4#114 |
| Net passing yards per game | 270.1#22 | 259.0#36 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 170.0#94 | 178.1#99 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 258.6#126 | 150.4#7 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.71#47 | 1.00#84 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#54 | 1.00#53 |
| Sacks per game | 1.14#121 | 1.29#113 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.29#101 | 1.57#53 |
| Stat | Purdue | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.12#51 | +0.01#107 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.20#127 | -0.01#41 |
| Success rate | 45.5%#44 | 40.1%#109 |
| Success rate allowed | 47.4%#132 | 40.1%#59 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.7%#42 | 11.2%#107 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 19.1%#138 | 12.9%#92 |
| Havoc rate | 12.8%#100 | 16.0%#23 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.0%#91 | 13.5%#76 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.27#51 | 4.22#52 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.67#125 | 3.72#58 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#41 | own 32#29 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#59 | own 26#12 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.3#43 | 66.4#68 |
| Stat | Purdue | Penn State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.02#101 | -0.11#134 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.21#32 | +0.12#58 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.14#124 | +0.12#112 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.26#125 | -0.14#13 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.4%#86 | 37.2%#126 |
| Passing success rate | 48.2%#25 | 42.7%#61 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.8%#67 | 15.7%#41 |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.4%#26 | 30.6%#77 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 39.2%#130 | 27.6%#45 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.4%#40 | 35.8%#109 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 50.0%#132 | 32.2%#15 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 60.0%#81 | 57.7%#96 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 71.4%#122 | 68.4%#113 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Purdue schedule · Penn State schedule · all Week 9 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.