Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Illinois 39.8, Purdue 23.1 at Gies Memorial Stadium in Week 5. That is a heavy edge: Illinois wins about 86% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 16.7 points and 62.9 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, leans high scoring.
Purdue is 1-3, scoring 32 and allowing 39.5 points per game (-7.5 per game). Illinois is 2-2, scoring 34 and allowing 26.5 points per game (+7.5 per game).
Illinois's middle-of-the-pack defense (59th) should limit Purdue's middle-of-the-pack offense (79th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.4 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Illinois's strong offense (36th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.9 points against an average defense) against Purdue's struggling defense (131st).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Purdue by 6 and Illinois by 39 about 80% of the time.
Illinois gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Illinois by about 14.6. The game is on BTN.
Result: Purdue 24, Illinois 17. Purdue won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 23.7 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Purdue / Illinois) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Illinois -10 → Illinois -9.75 | 60 → 62.5 | +290 / -372.5 |
| Bovada | Illinois -10 | 59.5 → 62.5 | +285 / -370 |
| DraftKings | Illinois -10 → Illinois -9.5 | 60.5 → 62.5 | +295 / -375 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Illinois win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Illinois -16.5 | 62.9 | 86% |
| Market consensus | Illinois -10 | 62.5 | 75% |
| Blended projection | Illinois -11 | 62.3 | 77% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Illinois win probability
- model 86% · market (no-vig) 75% · difference +11 pts
- Margin
- model Illinois -16.7 · market Illinois -9.75 · difference +7.0 pts (Illinois view)
- Total
- model 62.9 · market 62.5 · difference +0.4
Model margin is 7.0 pts more toward Illinois than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Purdue 23.1, Illinois 39.8 | Illinois 86%wrong winner | 23.7 | 21.9 |
| New formula | Purdue 23.1, Illinois 39.9 | Illinois 87%wrong winner | 23.8 | 22.0 |
Final: Purdue 24, Illinois 17. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Purdue vs Illinois: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Purdue | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.0#65 | 34.0#52 |
| Points allowed per game | 39.5#136 | 26.5#100 |
| Yards per play | 6.19#72 | 7.12#22 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.36#136 | 6.43#119 |
| Rushing yards per game | 127.8#118 | 172.5#67 |
| Net passing yards per game | 303.8#17 | 253.0#50 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 210.0#128 | 146.5#74 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 248.3#114 | 286.0#136 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.75#61 | 0.50#36 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50#112 | 0.75#88 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50#96 | 0.75#130 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.25#132 | 1.25#42 |
| Stat | Purdue | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.17#34 | +0.21#19 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.30#137 | +0.25#134 |
| Success rate | 47.6%#27 | 51.1%#12 |
| Success rate allowed | 51.4%#137 | 46.4%#125 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.4%#38 | 14.0%#52 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 19.3%#138 | 11.7%#74 |
| Havoc rate | 11.8%#114 | 10.9%#123 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.2%#58 | 11.8%#41 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.07#78 | 4.09#77 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 5.26#132 | 4.76#125 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#59 | own 28#97 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#78 | own 28#73 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.8#34 | 59.8#115 |
| Stat | Purdue | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.03#100 | +0.14#44 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.29#26 | +0.27#31 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.28#137 | +0.14#115 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.32#128 | +0.37#132 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.0%#99 | 49.5%#30 |
| Passing success rate | 52.7%#17 | 52.5%#18 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.6%#61 | 11.4%#9 |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.9%#35 | 40.7%#9 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 42.2%#135 | 36.2%#117 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 47.2%#38 | 45.2%#51 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 53.3%#136 | 41.8%#99 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.1%#95 | 70.0%#44 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 77.8%#122 | 78.6%#123 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Purdue schedule · Illinois schedule · all Week 5 projections
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