2026 schedule
Illinois Fighting Illini
2026 season so far
Illinois is 4-3 against the 28th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 30.3 and allowing 25.3 points per game (+5 per game).
In our opponent-adjusted ratings Illinois ranks 44th of 139 FBS teams overall — 41st on offense and 51st on defense. The offense carries this team more than the defense does.
Next up: at Maryland in Week 9. We project Illinois 32, Maryland 26 — Illinois wins 67% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
UAB Blazers
0-1 · SOS #94
Win 42-23
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Illinois by 15.9
Total 57.7
DraftKings
ILL -25.5
Total 53.5
Final Illinois by 19. UAB beat the spread. 65 points — over the 53.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Illinois -26 (open Illinois -27.5) · O/U 54 (open 56.5) · ML +1450 / -5800 · Illinois 94% no-vig · model vs market -10.1 pts, -9 pct pts (Illinois view)
BTN Gies Memorial Stadium - vs
Duke Blue Devils
2-0 · SOS #90
Loss 27-31
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Illinois by 5.3
Total 55.7
DraftKings
ILL -6
Total 51.5
Final Duke by 4. Duke beat the spread. 58 points — over the 51.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Illinois -6.25 (open Illinois -7.25) · O/U 51.5 (open 53.5) · ML +200 / -242.5 · Illinois 68% no-vig · model vs market -0.9 pts, -4 pct pts (Illinois view)
FS1 Gies Memorial Stadium - vs
Southern Illinois Salukis
2-2 · SOS #30
Win 48-10
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Illinois by 37
Total 58
DraftKings
ILL -34.5
Total 55.5
Final Illinois by 38. Illinois beat the spread. 58 points — over the 55.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Illinois -34.75 (open Illinois -40) · O/U 55.5 (open 55) · model vs market +2.3 pts (Illinois view)
Peacock Gies Memorial Stadium - at
#7 Ohio State Buckeyes
3-1 · SOS #19
Loss 19-42
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Ohio State by 28.7
Total 55.5
DraftKings
OSU -25.5
Total 53.5
Final Ohio State by 23. Illinois beat the spread. 61 points — over the 53.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Ohio State -25.5 (open Ohio State -27.25) · O/U 53.5 (open 54.25) · ML +1450 / -5250 · Ohio State 94% no-vig · model vs market +3.2 pts, +3 pct pts (Ohio State view)
Fox Ohio Stadium - vs
Purdue Boilermakers
2-3 · SOS #11
Loss 17-24
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Illinois by 16.7
Total 62.9
DraftKings
ILL -9.5
Total 62.5
Final Purdue by 7. Purdue beat the spread. 41 points — under the 62.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Illinois -9.75 (open Illinois -10) · O/U 62.5 (open 60) · ML +290 / -372.5 · Illinois 75% no-vig · model vs market +6.9 pts, +11 pct pts (Illinois view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 7 mph ESE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KCMI)BTN Gies Memorial Stadium - at
Michigan State Spartans
2-4 · SOS #7
Win 38-37
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Illinois by 3.5
Total 49.3
DraftKings
ILL -2.5
Total 48.5
Final Illinois by 1. Michigan State beat the spread. 75 points — over the 48.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Illinois -2.5 (open Illinois -3) · O/U 48.25 (open 48.75) · ML -158.5 / +135 · Michigan State 41% no-vig · model vs market -1.0 pts, -0 pct pts (Michigan State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 9 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLAN)FS1 Spartan Stadium - vs
Oregon Ducks
4-3 · SOS #20
Win 21-10
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Oregon by 15.9
Total 57.5
DraftKings
ORE -10.5
Total 49.5
Final Illinois by 11. Illinois beat the spread. 31 points — under the 49.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Oregon -10.5 · O/U 49.5 · ML -425 / +330 · Illinois 22% no-vig · model vs market -5.4 pts, -7 pct pts (Illinois view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 3 mph S.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KCMI)BTN Gies Memorial Stadium - at
Maryland Terrapins
2-5 · SOS #40
Sat, Oct 31, 4:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 32-26 · 67%
Our number
Illinois by 6
Total 58
DraftKings
ILL -2.5
Total 54.5
We're 3.5 points higher on Illinois than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Illinois -2.5 · O/U 54.5 · ML -137 / +114.5 · Maryland 45% no-vig · model vs market -3.5 pts, -12 pct pts (Maryland view)
Kickoff forecast: Partly sunny, 60°F, Wind 3 mph N, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDTFS1 SECU Stadium - vs
Nebraska Cornhuskers
5-2 · SOS #31
Sat, Nov 7, 1:00 AM
Week 10
Proj 24-30 · 35%
Our number
Nebraska by 6
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Fox Gies Memorial Stadium - at
#7 UCLA Bruins
7-0 · SOS #42
Sat, Nov 14, 2:00 AM
Week 11
Proj 23-29 · 36%
Our number
UCLA by 6
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Fox Rose Bowl - vs
Iowa Hawkeyes
5-2 · SOS #39
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 21-28 · 33%
Our number
Iowa by 7
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Gies Memorial Stadium - at
#20 Northwestern Wildcats
6-1 · SOS #44
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 24-29 · 38%
Our number
Northwestern by 5
Total 53
DraftKings
ILL -3.5
Total 52.5
We're 8.5 points higher on Northwestern than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Illinois -3.5 · O/U 52.5 · ML -175 / +145 · Northwestern 39% no-vig · model vs market +8.5 pts, +23 pct pts (Northwestern view)
Ryan Field
Times shown in your local time
Illinois Fighting Illini stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
+5.3
44th in FBS
Adj. offense
29.9
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
24.6
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 30.3 | 58 / 138 |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 25.3 | 81 / 138 |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.67 | 25 / 138 |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.21 | 110 / 138 |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 170.1 | 62 / 138 |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 239.7 | 52 / 138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 141.7 | 53 / 138 |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 261.1 | 128 / 138 |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.71 | 46 / 138 |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.57 | 111 / 138 |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.00 | 131 / 138 |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.29 | 33 / 138 |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.13 | 48 / 138 |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.18 | 125 / 138 |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 47.6% | 25 / 138 |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 46.2% | 127 / 138 |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 13.6% | 49 / 138 |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 11.1% | 56 / 138 |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 10.6% | 133 / 138 |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 10.9% | 25 / 138 |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.18 | 56 / 138 |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 4.62 | 122 / 138 |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | own 29 | 95 / 138 |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | own 29 | 83 / 138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 61.4 | 114 / 138 |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.12 | 47 / 138 |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.13 | 53 / 138 |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.08 | 94 / 138 |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.28 | 129 / 138 |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 44.7% | 66 / 138 |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 50.2% | 16 / 138 |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 12.0% | 7 / 138 |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 36.7% | 22 / 138 |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 38.3% | 129 / 138 |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 48.2% | 22 / 138 |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 41.1% | 96 / 138 |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 63.2% | 63 / 138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 68.0% | 112 / 138 |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.