Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Illinois 47.5, Southern Illinois 10.5 at Gies Memorial Stadium in Week 3. That is a heavy edge: Illinois wins about 99% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 37 points and 57.9 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Southern Illinois is 2-1, scoring 29 and allowing 24 points per game (+5 per game). Illinois is 1-1, scoring 34.5 and allowing 27 points per game (+7.5 per game).
Southern Illinois plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Illinois's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Illinois by 14 and Illinois by 60 about 80% of the time.
Illinois gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Illinois by about 34.9. The game is on Peacock.
Result: Southern Illinois 10, Illinois 48. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1 points and the total by 0.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Southern Illinois / Illinois) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Illinois -40 → Illinois -34.75 | 55 → 55.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Illinois -41.5 → Illinois -34.5 | 54.5 → 55.5 | — / — |
| Bovada | Illinois -38.5 → Illinois -35 | 55.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Illinois win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Illinois -37 | 57.9 | 99% |
| Market consensus | Illinois -35 | 55.5 | 99% |
| Blended projection | Illinois -35.5 | 56.0 | 99% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Illinois win probability
- model 99% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Illinois -37 · market Illinois -34.75 · difference +2.3 pts (Illinois view)
- Total
- model 57.9 · market 55.5 · difference +2.4
Model margin is 2.3 pts more toward Illinois than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Southern Illinois 10.5, Illinois 47.5 | Illinois 99%right winner | 1.0 | 0.1 |
| New formula | Southern Illinois 19.7, Illinois 39.0 | Illinois 89%right winner | 18.7 | 0.7 |
Final: Southern Illinois 10, Illinois 48. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Southern Illinois vs Illinois: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Southern Illinois | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.0 | 34.5#55 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.0 | 27.0#100 |
| Yards per play | 6.15 | 6.60#54 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.43 | 6.34#113 |
| Rushing yards per game | 197.0 | 130.5#109 |
| Net passing yards per game | 241.7 | 236.0#65 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 128.7 | 187.0#114 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 217.3 | 234.5#98 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.33 | 0.50#46 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.67 | 1.00#61 |
| Sacks per game | 1.67 | 1.00#113 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.67 | 0.00#3 |
| Stat | Southern Illinois | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06 | +0.17#24 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01 | +0.18#129 |
| Success rate | 36.4% | 48.9%#20 |
| Success rate allowed | 33.0% | 44.8%#115 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.9% | 10.4%#114 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.0% | 13.7%#111 |
| Havoc rate | 20.4% | 11.2%#119 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.1% | 9.3%#12 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 4.94#22 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 4.36#108 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | own 29#98 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | own 32#104 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 71.3 | 55.5#119 |
| Stat | Southern Illinois | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.21 | -0.01#105 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.10 | +0.38#10 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.11 | +0.15#119 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07 | +0.22#117 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.6% | 43.1%#81 |
| Passing success rate | 30.7% | 62.3%#9 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.2% | 15.7%#45 |
| Passing-down success rate | 37.2% | 43.4%#10 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.8% | 35.2%#115 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.8% | 50.0%#37 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.5% | 42.9%#100 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 77.2%#24 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 75.8%#114 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Southern Illinois schedule · Illinois schedule · all Week 3 projections
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