Week 3 College Football Projections (2026)
Updated Oct 26, 2026
Week 3 of the 2026 college football season has 75 FBS games on our board. The closest projected matchup is Wyoming at Central Michigan (0.4-point margin), the highest projected total is North Texas at Texas State (87.1 points) and the lowest is Wyoming at Central Michigan (36.6). 12 games are rated a toss-up (neither side above 58%).
75 games have finished so far: the model picked the winner in 65 of them (87%).
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Every FBS game
CSV download · Sports Pro- FinalESPN
Syracuse23final 13
Pittsburgh34final 27Final: Syracuse 13, Pittsburgh 27. We projected Pittsburgh 34-23 (76%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Pittsburgh by 11
Total 56.7
Book line
Not posted
Final Pittsburgh by 14. 40 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Pittsburgh 76% · total 56.7Full preview → - FinalESPN
Miami35final 33
Wake Forest22final 20Final: Miami 33, Wake Forest 20. We projected Miami 35-22 (80%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Miami by 13
Total 56.7
Book line
Not posted
Final Miami by 13. 53 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Miami 80% · total 56.7Full preview → - FinalFox
Houston26final 26
Texas Tech31final 28Final: Houston 26, Texas Tech 28. We projected Texas Tech 31-26 (64%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Texas Tech by 5.3
Total 57.1
Book line
Not posted
Final Texas Tech by 2. 54 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Texas Tech 64% · total 57.1Full preview → - FinalBTN
Portland State0final 0
Oregon59final 84Final: Portland State 0, Oregon 84. We projected Oregon 59-0 (100%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Oregon by 59.3
Total 57.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Oregon by 84. 84 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Oregon 100% · total 57.8Full preview → - FinalCBSSN
Coastal Carolina28final 14
Delaware31final 22Final: Coastal Carolina 14, Delaware 22. We projected Delaware 31-28 (58%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Delaware by 3.2
Total 58.4
Book line
Not posted
Final Delaware by 8. 36 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Delaware 58% · total 58.4Full preview → - FinalABC
Georgia40final 45
Arkansas16final 17Final: Georgia 45, Arkansas 17. We projected Georgia 40-16 (94%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Georgia by 24.3
Total 55.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Georgia by 28. 62 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Georgia 94% · total 55.6Full preview → - FinalFox
Kent State0final 3
Ohio State50final 59Final: Kent State 3, Ohio State 59. We projected Ohio State 50-0 (100%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Ohio State by 49.9
Total 50.1
Book line
Not posted
Final Ohio State by 56. 62 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Ohio State 100% · total 50.1Full preview → - FinalBTN
Buffalo14final 13
Penn State35final 55Final: Buffalo 13, Penn State 55. We projected Penn State 35-14 (92%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Penn State by 21.5
Total 49.4
Book line
Not posted
Final Penn State by 42. 68 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Penn State 92% · total 49.4Full preview → - FinalESPN2
Tulane18final 20
Kansas State30final 31Final: Tulane 20, Kansas State 31. We projected Kansas State 30-18 (77%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Kansas State by 11.2
Total 48.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Kansas State by 11. 51 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Kansas State 77% · total 48.2Full preview → - FinalESPNU
Bowling Green14final 7
Iowa State31final 55Final: Bowling Green 7, Iowa State 55. We projected Iowa State 31-14 (88%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Iowa State by 17.7
Total 44.7
Book line
Not posted
Final Iowa State by 48. 62 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Iowa State 88% · total 44.7Full preview → - FinalNeutral site
Arizona State26final 24
Kansas30final 17Final: Arizona State 24, Kansas 17. We projected Kansas 30-26 (61%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· model now
Kansas by 4.1
Total 55.4
Book line
Not posted
Final Arizona State by 7. 41 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Kansas 61% · total 55.4Full preview → - FinalACC Network
Mercer22final 11
Georgia Tech33final 44Final: Mercer 11, Georgia Tech 44. We projected Georgia Tech 33-22 (76%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Georgia Tech by 10.7
Total 54.7
Book line
Not posted
Final Georgia Tech by 33. 55 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Georgia Tech 76% · total 54.7Full preview → - FinalESPNEWS/Disney+
North Carolina20final 20
Clemson23final 28Final: North Carolina 20, Clemson 28. We projected Clemson 23-20 (57%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Clemson by 2.8
Total 43.1
Book line
Not posted
Final Clemson by 8. 48 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Clemson 57% · total 43.1Full preview → - FinalBTN
Akron13final 7
Minnesota36final 41Final: Akron 7, Minnesota 41. We projected Minnesota 36-13 (93%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Minnesota by 22.5
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
Final Minnesota by 34. 48 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Minnesota 93% · total 49Full preview → - FinalUSA Net
North Texas42final 35
Texas State45final 49Final: North Texas 35, Texas State 49. We projected Texas State 45-42 (56%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Texas State by 2.4
Total 87.1
Book line
Not posted
Final Texas State by 14. 84 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Texas State 56% · total 87.1Full preview → - FinalPeacock
Eastern Michigan11final 10
Wisconsin32final 54Final: Eastern Michigan 10, Wisconsin 54. We projected Wisconsin 32-11 (92%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Wisconsin by 20.9
Total 42.3
Book line
Not posted
Final Wisconsin by 44. 64 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Wisconsin 92% · total 42.3Full preview → - FinalSEC Network
NC State29final 31
Vanderbilt31final 35Final: NC State 31, Vanderbilt 35. We projected Vanderbilt 31-29 (55%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Vanderbilt by 2.1
Total 60
Book line
Not posted
Final Vanderbilt by 4. 66 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Vanderbilt 55% · total 60Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Wyoming19final 10
Central Michigan18final 24Final: Wyoming 10, Central Michigan 24. We projected Wyoming 19-18 (51%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· model now
dead even
Total 36.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Central Michigan by 14. 34 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Wyoming 51% · total 36.6Full preview → - FinalACCNX
Maine7final 16
Boston College40final 22Final: Maine 16, Boston College 22. We projected Boston College 40-7 (98%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Boston College by 32.7
Total 46.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Boston College by 6. 38 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Boston College 98% · total 46.6Full preview → - FinalPeacock
Southern Illinois15final 10
Illinois39final 48Final: Southern Illinois 10, Illinois 48. We projected Illinois 39-15 (94%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Illinois by 24.3
Total 53.5
Book line
Not posted
Final Illinois by 38. 58 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Illinois 94% · total 53.5Full preview → - FinalCBSSN
Temple22final 48
Toledo36final 49Final: Temple 48, Toledo 49. We projected Toledo 36-22 (81%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Toledo by 13.4
Total 57.9
Book line
Not posted
Final Toledo by 1. 97 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Toledo 81% · total 57.9Full preview → - FinalCBS
USC39final 42
Rutgers25final 35Final: USC 42, Rutgers 35. We projected USC 39-25 (82%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
USC by 14
Total 64.1
Book line
Not posted
Final USC by 7. 77 points. No book line was saved for this game.
USC 82% · total 64.1Full preview → - FinalESPN2
SMU29final 31
Louisville32final 41Final: SMU 31, Louisville 41. We projected Louisville 32-29 (58%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Louisville by 2.9
Total 60.1
Book line
Not posted
Final Louisville by 10. 72 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Louisville 58% · total 60.1Full preview → - FinalFox
Utah State13final 0
Utah35final 33Final: Utah State 0, Utah 33. We projected Utah 35-13 (93%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Utah by 22
Total 48.1
Book line
Not posted
Final Utah by 33. 33 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Utah 93% · total 48.1Full preview → - FinalBTN
UTEP3final 17
Michigan40final 52Final: UTEP 17, Michigan 52. We projected Michigan 40-3 (99%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Michigan by 37
Total 43.9
Book line
Not posted
Final Michigan by 35. 69 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Michigan 99% · total 43.9Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Miami (OH)21final 31
Cincinnati34final 35Final: Miami (OH) 31, Cincinnati 35. We projected Cincinnati 34-21 (80%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Cincinnati by 12.9
Total 54.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Cincinnati by 4. 66 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Cincinnati 80% · total 54.8Full preview → - FinalACC Network
Wagner10final 7
California43final 49Final: Wagner 7, California 49. We projected California 43-10 (98%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
California by 32.8
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
Final California by 42. 56 points. No book line was saved for this game.
California 98% · total 53Full preview → - FinalUSA Net
Duquesne18final 7
Washington State33final 48Final: Duquesne 7, Washington State 48. We projected Washington State 33-18 (84%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Washington State by 15
Total 51.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Washington State by 41. 55 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Washington State 84% · total 51.6Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Stonehill16final 14
Massachusetts29final 36Final: Stonehill 14, Massachusetts 36. We projected Massachusetts 29-16 (81%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Massachusetts by 13.3
Total 44.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Massachusetts by 22. 50 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Massachusetts 81% · total 44.6Full preview → - FinalESPN
Kentucky22final 31
Texas A&M29final 21Final: Kentucky 31, Texas A&M 21. We projected Texas A&M 29-22 (68%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· model now
Texas A&M by 7.1
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
Final Kentucky by 10. 52 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Texas A&M 68% · total 51Full preview → - FinalPeacock
Western Kentucky4final 0
Indiana42final 38Final: Western Kentucky 0, Indiana 38. We projected Indiana 42-4 (99%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Indiana by 37.5
Total 46.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Indiana by 38. 38 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Indiana 99% · total 46.2Full preview → - FinalFS1
Northern Iowa3final 0
Iowa43final 55Final: Northern Iowa 0, Iowa 55. We projected Iowa 43-3 (100%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Iowa by 40.3
Total 46.3
Book line
Not posted
Final Iowa by 55. 55 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Iowa 100% · total 46.3Full preview → - FinalCW
Stanford17final 7
Duke36final 35Final: Stanford 7, Duke 35. We projected Duke 36-17 (89%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Duke by 19
Total 52.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Duke by 28. 42 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Duke 89% · total 52.8Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Ball State16final 15
Liberty37final 51Final: Ball State 15, Liberty 51. We projected Liberty 37-16 (92%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Liberty by 21.7
Total 52.7
Book line
Not posted
Final Liberty by 36. 66 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Liberty 92% · total 52.7Full preview → - FinalESPNU
Louisiana Tech21final 19
Baylor29final 36Final: Louisiana Tech 19, Baylor 36. We projected Baylor 29-21 (68%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Baylor by 7.3
Total 49.9
Book line
Not posted
Final Baylor by 17. 55 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Baylor 68% · total 49.9Full preview → - FinalESPN+
SE Louisiana26final 38
UL Monroe28final 35Final: SE Louisiana 38, UL Monroe 35. We projected UL Monroe 28-26 (55%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· model now
UL Monroe by 1.9
Total 53.6
Book line
Not posted
Final SE Louisiana by 3. 73 points. No book line was saved for this game.
UL Monroe 55% · total 53.6Full preview → - FinalESPN2
Florida State21final 36
Alabama37final 50Final: Florida State 36, Alabama 50. We projected Alabama 37-21 (85%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Alabama by 16
Total 57.7
Book line
Not posted
Final Alabama by 14. 86 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Alabama 85% · total 57.7Full preview → - FinalSEC Network
Mississippi State25final 41
South Carolina35final 34Final: Mississippi State 41, South Carolina 34. We projected South Carolina 35-25 (74%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· model now
South Carolina by 9.9
Total 60.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Mississippi State by 7. 75 points. No book line was saved for this game.
South Carolina 74% · total 60.8Full preview →
- FinalESPN+
East Carolina25final 20
Old Dominion19final 17Final: East Carolina 20, Old Dominion 17. We projected East Carolina 25-19 (68%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
East Carolina by 7
Total 44
Book line
Not posted
Final East Carolina by 3. 37 points. No book line was saved for this game.
East Carolina 68% · total 44Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Florida International27final 10
Florida Atlantic29final 16Final: Florida International 10, Florida Atlantic 16. We projected Florida Atlantic 29-27 (55%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Florida Atlantic by 2
Total 56.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Florida Atlantic by 6. 26 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Florida Atlantic 55% · total 56.2Full preview → - FinalCBSSN
Marshall30final 30
Missouri State28final 24Final: Marshall 30, Missouri State 24. We projected Marshall 30-28 (55%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Marshall by 1.9
Total 57.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Marshall by 6. 54 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Marshall 55% · total 57.8Full preview → - FinalSECN+
Troy12final 17
Missouri35final 27Final: Troy 17, Missouri 27. We projected Missouri 35-12 (94%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Missouri by 23.2
Total 47.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Missouri by 10. 44 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Missouri 94% · total 47.2Full preview → - FinalESPN
Florida29final 44
Auburn26final 39Final: Florida 44, Auburn 39. We projected Florida 29-26 (59%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Florida by 3.6
Total 55.3
Book line
Not posted
Final Florida by 5. 83 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Florida 59% · total 55.3Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Georgia State23final 30
UCF35final 44Final: Georgia State 30, UCF 44. We projected UCF 35-23 (80%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
UCF by 12.7
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
Final UCF by 14. 74 points. No book line was saved for this game.
UCF 80% · total 58Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Murray State9final 0
Oklahoma State52final 59Final: Murray State 0, Oklahoma State 59. We projected Oklahoma State 52-9 (100%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Oklahoma State by 43
Total 60.4
Book line
Not posted
Final Oklahoma State by 59. 59 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Oklahoma State 100% · total 60.4Full preview → - FinalESPN+
UConn33final 48
Southern Miss26final 20Final: UConn 48, Southern Miss 20. We projected UConn 33-26 (68%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
UConn by 7
Total 58.9
Book line
Not posted
Final UConn by 28. 68 points. No book line was saved for this game.
UConn 68% · total 58.9Full preview → - FinalESPN+
UT Martin15final 21
Memphis41final 45Final: UT Martin 21, Memphis 45. We projected Memphis 41-15 (96%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Memphis by 26.7
Total 56.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Memphis by 24. 66 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Memphis 96% · total 56.2Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Western Michigan30final 28
Rice18final 21Final: Western Michigan 28, Rice 21. We projected Western Michigan 30-18 (77%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Western Michigan by 11.4
Total 48.1
Book line
Not posted
Final Western Michigan by 7. 49 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Western Michigan 77% · total 48.1Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Delaware State8final 17
South Florida41final 59Final: Delaware State 17, South Florida 59. We projected South Florida 41-8 (98%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
South Florida by 32.6
Total 48.5
Book line
Not posted
Final South Florida by 42. 76 points. No book line was saved for this game.
South Florida 98% · total 48.5Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Nevada28final 20
Middle Tennessee21final 27Final: Nevada 20, Middle Tennessee 27. We projected Nevada 28-21 (66%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· model now
Nevada by 6.4
Total 49.1
Book line
Not posted
Final Middle Tennessee by 7. 47 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Nevada 66% · total 49.1Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Ohio31final 36
South Alabama29final 41Final: Ohio 36, South Alabama 41. We projected Ohio 31-29 (55%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· model now
Ohio by 1.8
Total 60.3
Book line
Not posted
Final South Alabama by 5. 77 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Ohio 55% · total 60.3Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Georgia Southern27final 27
Jacksonville State27final 31Final: Georgia Southern 27, Jacksonville State 31. We projected Georgia Southern 27-27 (51%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· model now
Georgia Southern by 0.5
Total 53.9
Book line
Not posted
Final Jacksonville State by 4. 58 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Georgia Southern 51% · total 53.9Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Nicholls14final 0
Sam Houston36final 59Final: Nicholls 0, Sam Houston 59. We projected Sam Houston 36-14 (93%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Sam Houston by 22.1
Total 49.4
Book line
Not posted
Final Sam Houston by 59. 59 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Sam Houston 93% · total 49.4Full preview → - FinalBTN
North Dakota16final 7
Nebraska38final 34Final: North Dakota 7, Nebraska 34. We projected Nebraska 38-16 (93%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Nebraska by 22.1
Total 54.1
Book line
Not posted
Final Nebraska by 27. 41 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Nebraska 93% · total 54.1Full preview → - FinalBTN
Eastern Washington11final 16
Washington47final 48Final: Eastern Washington 16, Washington 48. We projected Washington 47-11 (99%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Washington by 36.3
Total 58.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Washington by 32. 64 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Washington 99% · total 58.6Full preview → - FinalNBC
Michigan State9final 10
Notre Dame42final 27Final: Michigan State 10, Notre Dame 27. We projected Notre Dame 42-9 (98%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Notre Dame by 32.9
Total 51.1
Book line
Not posted
Final Notre Dame by 17. 37 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Notre Dame 98% · total 51.1Full preview → - FinalABC
LSU30final 24
Ole Miss29final 32Final: LSU 24, Ole Miss 32. We projected LSU 30-29 (52%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· model now
LSU by 0.8
Total 59
Book line
Not posted
Final Ole Miss by 8. 56 points. No book line was saved for this game.
LSU 52% · total 59Full preview → - FinalESPNEWS
New Mexico16final 6
Oklahoma23final 14Final: New Mexico 6, Oklahoma 14. We projected Oklahoma 23-16 (67%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Oklahoma by 6.8
Total 38.4
Book line
Not posted
Final Oklahoma by 8. 20 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Oklahoma 67% · total 38.4Full preview → - FinalNeutral site
West Virginia28final 38
Virginia30final 27Final: West Virginia 38, Virginia 27. We projected Virginia 30-28 (56%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· model now
Virginia by 2.3
Total 57.4
Book line
Not posted
Final West Virginia by 11. 65 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Virginia 56% · total 57.4Full preview → - FinalFox
Colorado17final 7
Northwestern32final 41Final: Colorado 7, Northwestern 41. We projected Northwestern 32-17 (82%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Northwestern by 14.1
Total 48.9
Book line
Not posted
Final Northwestern by 34. 48 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Northwestern 82% · total 48.9Full preview → - FinalFS1
Virginia Tech31final 35
Maryland26final 26Final: Virginia Tech 35, Maryland 26. We projected Virginia Tech 31-26 (65%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Virginia Tech by 5.9
Total 57
Book line
Not posted
Final Virginia Tech by 9. 61 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Virginia Tech 65% · total 57Full preview → - FinalSECN+
Kennesaw State7final 9
Tennessee42final 42Final: Kennesaw State 9, Tennessee 42. We projected Tennessee 42-7 (99%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Tennessee by 34.3
Total 48.9
Book line
Not posted
Final Tennessee by 33. 51 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Tennessee 99% · total 48.9Full preview → - FinalSECN+
UTSA18final 6
Texas38final 30Final: UTSA 6, Texas 30. We projected Texas 38-18 (90%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Texas by 19.5
Total 55.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Texas by 24. 36 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Texas 90% · total 55.6Full preview → - FinalESPNU
Arkansas State15final 7
TCU31final 31Final: Arkansas State 7, TCU 31. We projected TCU 31-15 (85%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
TCU by 16
Total 46.6
Book line
Not posted
Final TCU by 24. 38 points. No book line was saved for this game.
TCU 85% · total 46.6Full preview → - FinalESPN+
East Texas A&M15final 0
Tulsa41final 42Final: East Texas A&M 0, Tulsa 42. We projected Tulsa 41-15 (96%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Tulsa by 25.9
Total 55.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Tulsa by 42. 42 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Tulsa 96% · total 55.2Full preview → - FinalESPN+
UAB19final 14
Louisiana32final 21Final: UAB 14, Louisiana 21. We projected Louisiana 32-19 (79%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Louisiana by 12.1
Total 51.1
Book line
Not posted
Final Louisiana by 7. 35 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Louisiana 79% · total 51.1Full preview → - FinalCBS
BYU44final 41
Colorado State20final 23Final: BYU 41, Colorado State 23. We projected BYU 44-20 (94%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
BYU by 24.3
Total 64.2
Book line
Not posted
Final BYU by 18. 64 points. No book line was saved for this game.
BYU 94% · total 64.2Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Charlotte20final 21
App State35final 26Final: Charlotte 21, App State 26. We projected App State 35-20 (84%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
App State by 15.2
Total 55.7
Book line
Not posted
Final App State by 5. 47 points. No book line was saved for this game.
App State 84% · total 55.7Full preview → - FinalCBSSN
South Dakota16final 24
Boise State41final 38Final: South Dakota 24, Boise State 38. We projected Boise State 41-16 (95%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Boise State by 24.4
Total 57.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Boise State by 14. 62 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Boise State 95% · total 57.2Full preview → - FinalCW
James Madison36final 26
San Diego State22final 13Final: James Madison 26, San Diego State 13. We projected James Madison 36-22 (81%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
James Madison by 13.6
Total 58.2
Book line
Not posted
Final James Madison by 13. 39 points. No book line was saved for this game.
James Madison 81% · total 58.2Full preview → - FinalTNT
Northern Illinois10final 17
Arizona44final 42Final: Northern Illinois 17, Arizona 42. We projected Arizona 44-10 (99%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Arizona by 34.1
Total 53.5
Book line
Not posted
Final Arizona by 25. 59 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Arizona 99% · total 53.5Full preview → - FinalESPN
North Dakota State37final 31
Sacramento State8final 10Final: North Dakota State 31, Sacramento State 10. We projected North Dakota State 37-8 (97%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
North Dakota State by 29
Total 44.6
Book line
Not posted
Final North Dakota State by 21. 41 points. No book line was saved for this game.
North Dakota State 97% · total 44.6Full preview → - FinalBTN
Purdue21final 38
UCLA35final 52Final: Purdue 38, UCLA 52. We projected UCLA 35-21 (83%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
UCLA by 14.4
Total 55.7
Book line
Not posted
Final UCLA by 14. 90 points. No book line was saved for this game.
UCLA 83% · total 55.7Full preview → - FinalUSA Net
Montana23final 17
Oregon State41final 52Final: Montana 17, Oregon State 52. We projected Oregon State 41-23 (87%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Oregon State by 17.3
Total 64.3
Book line
Not posted
Final Oregon State by 35. 69 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Oregon State 87% · total 64.3Full preview → - FinalFS1
Fresno State27final 26
San José State19final 10Final: Fresno State 26, San José State 10. We projected Fresno State 27-19 (71%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Fresno State by 8.5
Total 45.9
Book line
Not posted
Final Fresno State by 16. 36 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Fresno State 71% · total 45.9Full preview →
How these numbers are made
Each team gets opponent-adjusted offense and defense ratings for points, expected points added per play and success rate, built from every snap of play-by-play with garbage time removed. Early in the season the ratings lean on a preseason prior (last two seasons, returning production, roster talent); every game played shifts them toward this year. A fitted model turns the rating gaps plus home field (about 2 points, more in the opening weeks) and rest into a margin and a total, and the margin into a calibrated win probability. See the methodology and track record and the season scorecard for how the model has actually done.
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