2026 schedule

UL Monroe Warhawks

1-6SOS #97

2026 season so far

UL Monroe is 1-6 against the 97th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.1 and allowing 37.3 points per game (-17.2 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings UL Monroe ranks 132nd of 139 FBS teams overall — 133rd on offense and 130th on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.

Next up: vs Southern Miss in Week 9. We project UL Monroe 25, Southern Miss 29 — UL Monroe wins 40% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

at
Mississippi State Bulldogs
1-0 · SOS #5
Loss 13-62
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Mississippi State by 13.5
Total 56.9
DraftKings
MSST -28.5
Total 54.5
Final Mississippi State by 49. Mississippi State beat the spread. 75 points — over the 54.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Mississippi State -28.5 · O/U 54.75 (open 55.5) · ML +2050 / -52000 · Mississippi State 95% no-vig · model vs market -15.0 pts, -14 pct pts (Mississippi State view)
ESPNU Davis Wade Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: hit (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
at
UAB Blazers
1-1 · SOS #94
Loss 20-26
Week 2
Our number· pregame
UAB by 7.2
Total 55.2
DraftKings
UAB -9.5
Total 53.5
Final UAB by 6. UL Monroe beat the spread. 46 points — under the 53.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UAB -9.25 (open UAB -9) · O/U 53.5 (open 55.25) · ML +305 / -397.5 · UAB 76% no-vig · model vs market -2.1 pts, -8 pct pts (UAB view)
ESPN+ Protective Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
vs
SE Louisiana Lions
2-2 · SOS #53
Loss 35-38
Week 3
Our number· pregame
UL Monroe by 34.2
Total 56.2
DraftKings
ULM -9.5
Total 48.5
Final SE Louisiana by 3. SE Louisiana beat the spread. 73 points — over the 48.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: UL Monroe -9.75 (open UL Monroe -10.5) · O/U 48.25 · ML +310 / -415 · UL Monroe 77% no-vig · model vs market +24.5 pts, +22 pct pts (UL Monroe view)
ESPN+ Malone Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: missedBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: missed
vs
Florida Atlantic Owls
3-1 · SOS #120
Loss 17-45
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Florida Atlantic by 2
Total 61.2
DraftKings
FAU -11.5
Total 58.5
Final Florida Atlantic by 28. Florida Atlantic beat the spread. 62 points — over the 58.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Florida Atlantic -11.5 (open Florida Atlantic -13.5) · O/U 58.25 · ML -535 / +390 · UL Monroe 20% no-vig · model vs market +9.5 pts, +25 pct pts (UL Monroe view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 73°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMLU)
ESPN+ Malone Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: hit
Pattern · Watching Under · high total, night game: Record 16 hits, 10 misses (62% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesUnder · high total, night game: missed · Under · high total, night game → went under 16 of 26 from week 4 · base 51% · since Oct 17: 3 of 9
High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded gamesTotal 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): missed (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)Flip-flop totals underStudy · Lean Under: Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: Record 307 hits, 231 misses (57% hit rate) over 538 graded gamesUnderdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: missed (n=538) · Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · B. Roland RB · Low rush yds 58 (avg 44) · 75% · 0 ✓K. Valsin WR · Low catches 6.5 (avg 8) · 68% · 9 ✗E. Messer WR · Low catches 6.4 (avg 7.7) · 65% · 5 ✓
at
South Alabama Jaguars
3-2 · SOS #103
Loss 35-52
Week 5
Our number· pregame
South Alabama by 16.6
Total 60.6
DraftKings
USA -12.5
Total 57.5
Final South Alabama by 17. South Alabama beat the spread. 87 points — over the 57.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: South Alabama -13.25 (open South Alabama -14.25) · O/U 57 (open 55.75) · ML +437.5 / -612.5 · South Alabama 82% no-vig · model vs market +3.4 pts, +4 pct pts (South Alabama view)
Game-time weather: Partly cloudy, 75°F, Wind 5 mph ENE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMOB)
ESPN+ Hancock Whitney Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: hit
Pattern · Watching Under · high total, night game: Record 16 hits, 10 misses (62% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesUnder · high total, night game: missed · Under · high total, night game → went under 16 of 26 from week 4 · base 51% · since Oct 17: 3 of 9
High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded gamesTotal 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): missed (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)
Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · B. Roland RB · Low rush yds 40 (avg 33) · 77% · 12 ✓P. Martin RB · TD threat 73% · 1 ✓B. Jenkins WR · Low catches 3.1 (avg 4.3) · 69% · 3 ✓
vs
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
4-2 · SOS #101
Loss 0-24
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Louisiana Tech by 14.2
Total 58.8
DraftKings
LT -13.5
Total 55.5
Final Louisiana Tech by 24. Louisiana Tech beat the spread. 24 points — under the 55.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Louisiana Tech -14.5 · O/U 55.75 (open 53.5) · ML -637.5 / +450 · UL Monroe 17% no-vig · model vs market +0.3 pts, +0 pct pts (UL Monroe view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 57°F, Wind 6 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMLU)
ESPN+ Malone Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded gamesTotal 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): missed (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)
Unranked 3rd-down fav2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 53 hits, 6 misses (90% hit rate) over 59 graded gamesNeither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: hit (n=59; wk 5–7 26-3) · Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats Pass-stopping fav vs havoc-prone visitor2026 combo · Weak Favorite covers: Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank: Record 31 hits, 12 misses (72% hit rate) over 43 graded gamesAway team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank: hit (n=43; wk 5–7 11-2) · Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank
Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · B. Roland RB · Low rush yds 33 (avg 29) · 75% · 6 ✓J. Mickens WR · TD threat 69% · 0 ✗B. Baker QB · High pass yds 198 (avg 170) · 63% · 178 ✓
at
Troy Trojans
3-4 · SOS #113
Win 21-14
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Troy by 15.5
Total 52.9
DraftKings
TROY -13.5
Total 50.5
Final UL Monroe by 7. UL Monroe beat the spread. 35 points — under the 50.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Troy -13.5 · O/U 50.5 · ML +460 / -650 · Troy 83% no-vig · model vs market +2.0 pts, +1 pct pts (Troy view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 73°F, Wind 9 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KTOI)
ESPN+ Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
Pregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hit
Elite 114-37 (typical 60%) · A. Carlisle QB · Low rush yds 45 (avg 58) · 75% · 7 ✓Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · B. Roland RB · Low rush yds 24 (avg 25) · 77% · 0 ✓G. Crowder QB · High pass yds 217 (avg 185) · 57% · 50 ✗
vs
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
2-5 · SOS #93
Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM
Week 9
Proj 25-29 · 40%
Our number
Southern Miss by 4
Total 54
DraftKings
USM -3.5
Total 55.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Southern Miss -3.5 · O/U 56.25 · ML -167.5 / +141 · UL Monroe 40% no-vig · model vs market -0.5 pts, +0 pct pts (UL Monroe view)
Kickoff forecast: Chance rain showers, 80°F, Wind 5 mph E, 39% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
ESPN+ Malone Stadium
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
Pattern · Watching Under · high total, close game, our total below the book: Record 6 hits, 5 misses (55% hit rate) over 11 graded games · Under · high total, close game, our total below the book → went under 6 of 11 since Oct 17 · base 49%
On-the-number fav vs pass-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank: Record 27 hits, 1 misses (96% hit rate) over 28 graded games (n=28; wk 5–7 15-0) · Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank Mid-total dog vs 3rd-down-leaky fav under2026 combo · Weak Under: Underdog implied 21-27.5 + Favorite third-down rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Home team points allowed: bottom-third FBS rank: Record 25 hits, 7 misses (78% hit rate) over 32 graded games (n=32; wk 5–7 11-2) · Underdog implied 21-27.5 + Favorite third-down rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Home team points allowed: bottom-third FBS rank
S. Robinson RB · TD threat 78%L. Lyddy QB · High pass yds 209 (avg 171) · 65%A. Armenta QB · High pass yds 206 (avg 187) · 59%
at
Arkansas State Red Wolves
4-4 · SOS #102
Sat, Nov 7, 8:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 21-33 · 22%
Our number
Arkansas State by 12
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Centennial Bank Stadium
A. Armenta QB · High pass yds 198 (avg 187) · 56%T. Owens QB · High pass yds 259 (avg 243) · 54%
vs
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
5-3 · SOS #110
Fri, Nov 13, 2:00 AM
Week 11
Proj 19-32 · 20%
Our number
Louisiana by 13
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN2 Malone Stadium
Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · A. Carlisle QB · Low rush yds 39 (avg 47) · 75%L. Winfield QB · High pass yds 204 (avg 182) · 56%
at
App State Mountaineers
5-2 · SOS #124
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 20-33 · 21%
Our number
App State by 13
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kidd Brewer Stadium
J. Lewis RB · TD threat 75%A. Carlisle QB · Low rush yds 35 (avg 47) · 72%
vs
Marshall Thundering Herd
4-3 · SOS #106
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 24-29 · 37%
Our number
Marshall by 5
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Malone Stadium
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
A. Armenta QB · High pass yds 205 (avg 187) · 59%

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UL Monroe Warhawks stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

-18.6

131st in FBS

Adj. offense

16.8

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

35.4

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	20.1	123 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	37.3	135 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	5.10	129 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	6.48	123 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	130.6	118 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	196.4	100 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	226.7	133 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	219.7	95 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	1.00	96 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	0.43	130 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	1.86	88 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	1.86	79 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	+0.02	105 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	+0.11	105 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	40.9%	99 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	44.7%	118 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	11.8%	94 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	12.9%	94 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	12.4%	109 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	16.2%	128 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	3.69	102 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	4.28	107 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 27	126 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 31	106 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	64.1	89 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	+0.07	76 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	-0.03	115 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	+0.04	74 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	+0.20	117 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	43.6%	77 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	39.0%	100 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	19.2%	103 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	27.7%	109 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	34.2%	119 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	29.2%	136 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	45.5%	125 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	60.7%	76 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	57.9%	62 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

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