Matchup analysis
Our model projects Southern Miss 29, UL Monroe 26 at Malone Stadium in Week 9. That is a lean: Southern Miss wins about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.2 points and 54.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Southern Miss is 2-5 against the 94th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 25.7 and allowing 32.4 points per game (-6.7 per game). UL Monroe is 1-6 against the 100th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.1 and allowing 37.3 points per game (-17.2 per game).
Southern Miss's below-average offense (110th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.2 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over UL Monroe's struggling defense (130th); that mismatch is where most of Southern Miss's projected points come from. UL Monroe's struggling offense (133rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 16.8 points against an average defense) meets Southern Miss's struggling defense (127th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points UL Monroe puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Southern Miss by 26 and UL Monroe by 19 about 80% of the time.
UL Monroe gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Southern Miss is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
More: Southern Miss schedule · UL Monroe schedule · all Week 9 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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