2026 schedule

Southern Miss Golden Eagles

2-5SOS #94

2026 season so far

Southern Miss is 2-5 against the 94th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 25.7 and allowing 32.4 points per game (-6.7 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings Southern Miss ranks 122nd of 139 FBS teams overall — 107th on offense and 127th on defense. The offense carries this team more than the defense does.

Next up: at UL Monroe in Week 9. We project Southern Miss 29, UL Monroe 25 — Southern Miss wins 60% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

vs
Alcorn State Braves
1-1 · SOS #137
Win 49-3
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Southern Miss by 31
Total 52.4
DraftKings
USM -20.5
Total 51.5
Final Southern Miss by 46. Southern Miss beat the spread. 52 points — over the 51.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Southern Miss -20 (open Southern Miss -20.5) · O/U 51.25 (open 50.5) · ML +825 / -1500 · Southern Miss 90% no-vig · model vs market +11.0 pts, +8 pct pts (Southern Miss view)
ESPN+ M. M. Roberts Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit
at
Auburn Tigers
2-0 · SOS #4
Loss 8-43
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Auburn by 9
Total 48.2
DraftKings
AUB -32.5
Total 56.5
Final Auburn by 35. Auburn beat the spread. 51 points — under the 56.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Auburn -32.75 (open Auburn -29.75) · O/U 56.75 (open 52.75) · ML +3000 / -10000 · Auburn 97% no-vig · model vs market -23.7 pts, -25 pct pts (Auburn view)
SEC Network Jordan-Hare Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: missed (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
vs
UConn Huskies
2-1 · SOS #135
Loss 20-48
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Southern Miss by 5.4
Total 51.6
DraftKings
CONN -3.5
Total 54.5
Final UConn by 28. UConn beat the spread. 68 points — over the 54.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UConn -3.5 (open UConn -3) · O/U 54.5 (open 54.75) · ML -163.5 / +138 · Southern Miss 40% no-vig · model vs market +8.9 pts, +24 pct pts (Southern Miss view)
ESPN+ M. M. Roberts Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed
Bounce-back home dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: Record 284 hits, 203 misses (58% hit rate) over 487 graded gamesHome underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: missed (n=487) · Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game
at
Tulane Green Wave
2-2 · SOS #31
Loss 21-24
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Tulane by 18.9
Total 49.5
DraftKings
TULN -17.5
Total 52.5
Final Tulane by 3. Southern Miss beat the spread. 45 points — under the 52.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Tulane -17.75 · O/U 52.5 (open 53) · ML +662.5 / -1075 · Tulane 87% no-vig · model vs market +1.2 pts, +2 pct pts (Tulane view)
Game-time weather: 81°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMSY)
ESPN+ Yulman Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hit
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hit
S. Robinson RB · TD threat 76% · 0 ✗M. Sanders WR · Low rec yds 57 (avg 78) · 72% · 69 ✓K. Semonza QB · High pass yds 201 (avg 172) · 58% · 129 ✗
at
Troy Trojans
3-2 · SOS #130
Loss 34-55
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Troy by 9.8
Total 49.8
DraftKings
TROY -9.5
Total 51.5
Final Troy by 21. Troy beat the spread. 89 points — over the 51.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Troy -9.5 · O/U 51.5 (open 49) · ML +317.5 / -415 · Troy 77% no-vig · model vs market +0.3 pts, -3 pct pts (Troy view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 70°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KTOI)
ESPN2 Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
Pregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: missedUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: missed
S. Robinson RB · Low rush yds 64 (avg 80) · 70% · 29 ✓J. Wilder RB · Low rush yds 38 (avg 45) · 68% · 29 ✓G. Crowder QB · High pass yds 241 (avg 206) · 56% · 225 ✓
vs
Arkansas State Red Wolves
3-4 · SOS #96
Loss 13-23
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Arkansas State by 3.1
Total 59.5
DraftKings
ARST -5.5
Total 61.5
Final Arkansas State by 10. Arkansas State beat the spread. 36 points — under the 61.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Arkansas State -6 (open Arkansas State -7) · O/U 61.75 (open 58.5) · ML -246.5 / +202.5 · Southern Miss 32% no-vig · model vs market +2.9 pts, +10 pct pts (Southern Miss view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 63°F, Wind 7 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KHBG)
ESPN+ M. M. Roberts Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed
Pattern · Watching Under · high total, night game: Record 16 hits, 10 misses (62% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesUnder · high total, night game: hit · Under · high total, night game → went under 17 of 21 since week 3 · base 53%
Bounce-back home dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: Record 284 hits, 203 misses (58% hit rate) over 487 graded gamesHome underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: missed (n=487) · Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game
Unranked 3rd-down fav2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 53 hits, 6 misses (90% hit rate) over 59 graded gamesNeither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: hit (n=59; wk 5–7 26-3) · Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats High-success unranked league dog2026 combo · Held up Underdog covers: Conference game + Neither team ranked + Both teams' success rate combined: top third: Record 53 hits, 25 misses (68% hit rate) over 78 graded gamesConference game + Neither team ranked + Both teams' success rate combined: top third: missed (n=78; wk 5–7 29-12) · Conference game + Neither team ranked + Both teams' success rate combined: top third
S. Robinson RB · TD threat 68% · 1 ✓L. Lyddy QB · High pass yds 197 (avg 165) · 64% · 208 ✓T. Owens QB · High pass yds 271 (avg 244) · 57% · 170 ✗
vs
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
5-3 · SOS #109
Win 35-31
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Louisiana by 9.8
Total 54
DraftKings
UL -11.5
Total 52.5
Final Southern Miss by 4. Southern Miss beat the spread. 66 points — over the 52.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Louisiana -11.5 · O/U 53.5 · ML -490 / +360 · Southern Miss 22% no-vig · model vs market +1.7 pts, +5 pct pts (Southern Miss view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 73°F, Wind 3 mph ENE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KHBG)
ESPN+ M. M. Roberts Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · S. Robinson RB · Low rush yds 63 (avg 72) · 75% · 145 ✗Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · J. Wilder RB · Low rush yds 36 (avg 36) · 75% · 154 ✗L. Winfield QB · High pass yds 185 (avg 165) · 56% · 299 ✓
at
UL Monroe Warhawks
1-6 · SOS #100
Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM
Week 9
Proj 29-25 · 60%
Our number
Southern Miss by 4
Total 54
DraftKings
USM -3.5
Total 55.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Southern Miss -3.5 · O/U 56.25 · ML -167.5 / +141 · UL Monroe 40% no-vig · model vs market -0.5 pts, +0 pct pts (UL Monroe view)
Kickoff forecast: Chance rain showers, 80°F, Wind 5 mph E, 39% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
ESPN+ Malone Stadium
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
Pattern · Watching Under · high total, close game, our total below the book: Record 6 hits, 5 misses (55% hit rate) over 11 graded games · Under · high total, close game, our total below the book → went under 6 of 11 since Oct 17 · base 49%
On-the-number fav vs pass-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank: Record 27 hits, 1 misses (96% hit rate) over 28 graded games (n=28; wk 5–7 15-0) · Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank Mid-total dog vs 3rd-down-leaky fav under2026 combo · Weak Under: Underdog implied 21-27.5 + Favorite third-down rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Home team points allowed: bottom-third FBS rank: Record 25 hits, 7 misses (78% hit rate) over 32 graded games (n=32; wk 5–7 11-2) · Underdog implied 21-27.5 + Favorite third-down rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Home team points allowed: bottom-third FBS rank
S. Robinson RB · TD threat 78%L. Lyddy QB · High pass yds 209 (avg 171) · 65%A. Armenta QB · High pass yds 206 (avg 187) · 59%
vs
James Madison Dukes
7-1 · SOS #120
Fri, Nov 6, 1:00 AM
Week 10
Proj 21-38 · 13%
Our number
James Madison by 17
Total 59
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN2 M. M. Roberts Stadium
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded games
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · S. Robinson RB · Low rush yds 73 (avg 82) · 75%Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · J. Wilder RB · Low rush yds 49 (avg 53) · 75%G. Pettaway RB · TD threat 75%
at
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
5-2 · SOS #101
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 19-35 · 16%
Our number
Louisiana Tech by 16
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Joe Aillet Stadium
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · S. Robinson RB · Low rush yds 69 (avg 82) · 75%Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · J. Wilder RB · Low rush yds 46 (avg 53) · 75%B. Baker QB · High pass yds 232 (avg 193) · 64%
vs
South Alabama Jaguars
4-3 · SOS #107
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 30-35 · 38%
Our number
South Alabama by 5
Total 65
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
M. M. Roberts Stadium
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
P. Martin RB · TD threat 71%S. Robinson RB · TD threat 68%L. Lyddy QB · High pass yds 217 (avg 171) · 67%
at
Old Dominion Monarchs
2-6 · SOS #73
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 22-26 · 40%
Our number
Old Dominion by 4
Total 48
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
S.B. Ballard Stadium
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games
L. Lyddy QB · High pass yds 193 (avg 171) · 59%

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Southern Miss Golden Eagles stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

-12.9

121st in FBS

Adj. offense

21.4

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

34.3

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	25.7	92 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	32.4	125 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	6.04	63 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	5.97	91 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	169.3	65 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	251.6	42 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	243.9	136 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	206.7	72 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	1.57	133 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	0.86	73 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	2.57	29 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	1.86	72 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	+0.04	95 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	+0.05	73 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	41.4%	92 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	43.0%	92 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	13.5%	52 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	13.1%	101 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	12.1%	114 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	12.4%	48 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	3.73	98 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	3.92	83 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 27	118 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 29	84 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	69.7	27 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	+0.16	27 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	-0.06	123 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	+0.04	72 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	+0.07	79 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	47.6%	34 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	36.6%	117 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	11.1%	3 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	22.9%	134 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	30.9%	89 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	31.5%	131 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	40.9%	93 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	61.4%	72 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	57.2%	56 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

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