Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Southern Miss 28.5, UConn 23.1 at M. M. Roberts Stadium in Week 3. That is a lean: Southern Miss wins about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.4 points and 51.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
UConn is 1-1, scoring 35 and allowing 22.5 points per game (+12.5 per game). Southern Miss is 1-1, scoring 28.5 and allowing 23 points per game (+5.5 per game).
UConn's below-average offense (101st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.4 points against an average defense) meets Southern Miss's below-average defense (110th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points UConn puts up. Southern Miss's below-average offense (107th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22.9 points against an average defense) meets UConn's below-average defense (116th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Southern Miss puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UConn by 17 and Southern Miss by 28 about 80% of the time.
Southern Miss gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Southern Miss by about 3.3. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: UConn 48, Southern Miss 20. UConn won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 33.4 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (UConn / Southern Miss) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | UConn -3 → UConn -3.5 | 54.75 → 54.5 | -163.5 / +138 |
| DraftKings | UConn -2.5 → UConn -3.5 | 55.5 → 54.5 | -162 / +136 |
| Bovada | UConn -3.5 | 54 → 54.5 | -165 / +140 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Southern Miss win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Southern Miss -5.5 | 51.5 | 64% |
| Market consensus | UConn -3.5 | 54.5 | 40% |
| Blended projection | UConn -2 | 54.8 | 44% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Southern Miss win probability
- model 64% · market (no-vig) 40% · difference +24 pts
- Margin
- model Southern Miss -5.4 · market UConn -3.5 · difference +8.9 pts (Southern Miss view)
- Total
- model 51.5 · market 54.5 · difference -3.0
Model margin is 8.9 pts more toward Southern Miss than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | UConn 23.1, Southern Miss 28.5 | Southern Miss 64%wrong winner | 33.4 | 16.5 |
| New formula | UConn 25.7, Southern Miss 31.1 | Southern Miss 63%wrong winner | 33.3 | 11.2 |
Final: UConn 48, Southern Miss 20. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
UConn vs Southern Miss: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | UConn | Southern Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 35.0#54 | 28.5#84 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.5#80 | 23.0#82 |
| Yards per play | 7.33#27 | 5.89#83 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.56#34 | 5.72#97 |
| Rushing yards per game | 196.0#56 | 190.5#61 |
| Net passing yards per game | 255.0#50 | 221.5#76 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 104.5#38 | 208.5#124 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 235.0#99 | 194.5#67 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50#114 | 1.50#118 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.00#129 | 2.00#14 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50#87 | 1.00#119 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.50#111 | 1.50#73 |
| Stat | UConn | Southern Miss |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.16#33 | +0.14#45 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04#74 | +0.07#93 |
| Success rate | 44.0%#62 | 51.0%#10 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.4%#71 | 41.0%#80 |
| Explosive play rate | 16.5%#14 | 12.0%#87 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.6%#31 | 16.0%#133 |
| Havoc rate | 16.0%#44 | 9.0%#133 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.0%#33 | 11.0%#35 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.60#7 | 6.33#1 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.17#29 | 3.40#41 |
| Average starting field position | own 33#45 | own 26#120 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#77 | own 29#75 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.5#94 | 70.0#36 |
| Stat | UConn | Southern Miss |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.11#49 | +0.24#12 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.21#36 | +0.04#85 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.10#31 | +0.12#111 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.11#94 | +0.02#70 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.6%#85 | 58.0%#13 |
| Passing success rate | 45.5%#57 | 44.0%#68 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.9%#68 | 7.8%#4 |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.5%#35 | 40.0%#16 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.3%#91 | 38.9%#127 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.1%#85 | 41.7%#74 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.8%#104 | 41.4%#94 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 100.0%#1 | 85.7%#8 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.5%#82 | 42.9%#23 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UConn schedule · Southern Miss schedule · all Week 3 projections
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