Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Tulane 34.2, Southern Miss 15.3 at Yulman Stadium in Week 4. That is a heavy edge: Tulane wins about 89% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 18.9 points and 49.5 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Southern Miss is 1-2, scoring 25.7 and allowing 31.3 points per game (-5.6 per game). Tulane is 1-2, scoring 17 and allowing 24 points per game (-7 per game).
Expect Southern Miss to find it hard going: Tulane's middle-of-the-pack defense (53rd) outranks Southern Miss's below-average offense (117th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.6 points against an average defense). Tulane's below-average offense (98th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.8 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Southern Miss's struggling defense (131st); that mismatch is where most of Tulane's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Southern Miss by 4 and Tulane by 41 about 80% of the time.
Tulane gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Tulane by about 16.8. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Southern Miss 21, Tulane 24. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 15.9 points and the total by 4.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Southern Miss / Tulane) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Tulane -17.75 | 53 → 52.5 | +662.5 / -1075 |
| DraftKings | Tulane -17.5 | 53.5 → 52.5 | +675 / -1050 |
| Bovada | Tulane -18 | 52.5 | +650 / -1100 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Tulane win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Tulane -19 | 49.5 | 89% |
| Market consensus | Tulane -18 | 52.5 | 87% |
| Blended projection | Tulane -18 | 52.9 | 89% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Tulane win probability
- model 89% · market (no-vig) 87% · difference +2 pts
- Margin
- model Tulane -18.9 · market Tulane -17.75 · difference +1.1 pts (Tulane view)
- Total
- model 49.5 · market 52.5 · difference -3.0
Model margin is 1.1 pts more toward Tulane than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Southern Miss 15.3, Tulane 34.2 | Tulane 89%right winner | 15.9 | 4.5 |
| New formula | Southern Miss 16.5, Tulane 33.6 | Tulane 87%right winner | 14.2 | 5.1 |
Final: Southern Miss 21, Tulane 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Southern Miss vs Tulane: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Southern Miss | Tulane |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.7#96 | 17.0#128 |
| Points allowed per game | 31.3#117 | 24.0#86 |
| Yards per play | 5.84#99 | 5.87#95 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.86#97 | 6.09#107 |
| Rushing yards per game | 162.0#84 | 140.3#107 |
| Net passing yards per game | 262.3#44 | 178.7#103 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 217.0#129 | 212.3#127 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 197.0#66 | 215.7#85 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.67#125 | 0.33#37 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.33#39 | 0.00#137 |
| Sacks per game | 1.67#84 | 0.33#136 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.33#66 | 3.00#131 |
| Stat | Southern Miss | Tulane |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.00#110 | +0.03#100 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.13#115 | +0.18#125 |
| Success rate | 44.7%#54 | 33.1%#136 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.7%#107 | 41.2%#85 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.9%#120 | 12.9%#73 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.8%#127 | 12.3%#85 |
| Havoc rate | 8.9%#134 | 10.4%#128 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.2%#75 | 19.6%#136 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.50#3 | 3.67#107 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.33#100 | 3.61#51 |
| Average starting field position | own 25#131 | own 25#135 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#89 | own 29#76 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 72.7#19 | 54.3#134 |
| Stat | Southern Miss | Tulane |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.18#23 | +0.07#75 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.15#126 | -0.01#98 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.16#117 | +0.11#108 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.10#91 | +0.28#124 |
| Rushing success rate | 52.9%#13 | 35.5%#121 |
| Passing success rate | 38.1%#104 | 31.0%#132 |
| Run stuff rate | 8.7%#2 | 22.4%#121 |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.2%#114 | 23.4%#126 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 41.2%#131 | 35.9%#119 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.5%#96 | 39.0%#92 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.5%#117 | 55.1%#135 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 80.0%#13 | 83.3%#8 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 60.0%#73 | 57.1%#62 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Southern Miss schedule · Tulane schedule · all Week 4 projections
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