Week 4 College Football Projections (2026)
Updated Oct 26, 2026
Week 4 of the 2026 college football season has 71 FBS games on our board. The closest projected matchup is Texas at Tennessee (0.4-point margin), the highest projected total is Colorado State at UTSA (71.7 points) and the lowest is Wisconsin at Penn State (39.2). 10 games are rated a toss-up (neither side above 58%).
71 games have finished so far: the model picked the winner in 63 of them (89%).
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Every FBS game
CSV download · Sports Pro- FinalESPN
Liberty31final 34
Coastal Carolina18final 17Final: Liberty 34, Coastal Carolina 17. We projected Liberty 31-18 (79%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Liberty by 12.3
Total 48.7
Book line
Not posted
Final Liberty by 17. 51 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Liberty 79% · total 48.7Full preview → - FinalESPN
Army32final 21
Temple23final 17Final: Army 21, Temple 17. We projected Army 32-23 (73%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Army by 9.4
Total 55.5
Book line
Not posted
Final Army by 4. 38 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Army 73% · total 55.5Full preview → - FinalBTN
Howard15final 7
Rutgers41final 58Final: Howard 7, Rutgers 58. We projected Rutgers 41-15 (96%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Rutgers by 26.2
Total 56.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Rutgers by 51. 65 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Rutgers 96% · total 56.2Full preview → - FinalESPN
Navy30final 20
UAB22final 24Final: Navy 20, UAB 24. We projected Navy 30-22 (71%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· model now
Navy by 8.2
Total 52.2
Book line
Not posted
Final UAB by 4. 44 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Navy 71% · total 52.2Full preview → - FinalFox
Northwestern13final 23
Indiana32final 29Final: Northwestern 23, Indiana 29. We projected Indiana 32-13 (89%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Indiana by 19
Total 45.9
Book line
Not posted
Final Indiana by 6. 52 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Indiana 89% · total 45.9Full preview → - FinalESPN
Clemson30final 24
California19final 10Final: Clemson 24, California 10. We projected Clemson 30-19 (77%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Clemson by 11.2
Total 48.7
Book line
Not posted
Final Clemson by 14. 34 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Clemson 77% · total 48.7Full preview → - FinalABC
Texas25final 20
Tennessee25final 17Final: Texas 20, Tennessee 17. We projected Tennessee 25-25 (51%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· model now
dead even
Total 49.5
Book line
Not posted
Final Texas by 3. 37 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Tennessee 51% · total 49.5Full preview → - FinalFox
Illinois15final 19
Ohio State39final 42Final: Illinois 19, Ohio State 42. We projected Ohio State 39-15 (94%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Ohio State by 24.3
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
Final Ohio State by 23. 61 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Ohio State 94% · total 54Full preview → - FinalTNT
Sam Houston8final 14
Texas Tech44final 49Final: Sam Houston 14, Texas Tech 49. We projected Texas Tech 44-8 (99%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Texas Tech by 36
Total 51.4
Book line
Not posted
Final Texas Tech by 35. 63 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Texas Tech 99% · total 51.4Full preview → - FinalESPN/Disney+
Wake Forest29final 30
Louisville28final 27Final: Wake Forest 30, Louisville 27. We projected Wake Forest 29-28 (51%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
dead even
Total 56.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Wake Forest by 3. 57 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Wake Forest 51% · total 56.6Full preview → - FinalESPN2
Colorado19final 13
Baylor30final 23Final: Colorado 13, Baylor 23. We projected Baylor 30-19 (78%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Baylor by 11.6
Total 49.1
Book line
Not posted
Final Baylor by 10. 36 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Baylor 78% · total 49.1Full preview → - FinalACCNX
Bucknell0final 0
Pittsburgh51final 59Final: Bucknell 0, Pittsburgh 59. We projected Pittsburgh 51-0 (100%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Pittsburgh by 51.9
Total 49.4
Book line
Not posted
Final Pittsburgh by 59. 59 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Pittsburgh 100% · total 49.4Full preview → - FinalACC Network
Virginia Tech28final 21
Boston College23final 14Final: Virginia Tech 21, Boston College 14. We projected Virginia Tech 28-23 (62%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Virginia Tech by 4.7
Total 50.4
Book line
Not posted
Final Virginia Tech by 7. 35 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Virginia Tech 62% · total 50.4Full preview → - FinalCBSSN
San Diego State24final 16
Toledo35final 41Final: San Diego State 16, Toledo 41. We projected Toledo 35-24 (75%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Toledo by 10.5
Total 58.5
Book line
Not posted
Final Toledo by 25. 57 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Toledo 75% · total 58.5Full preview → - FinalESPNU
Colorado State29final 45
UTSA43final 59Final: Colorado State 45, UTSA 59. We projected UTSA 43-29 (83%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
UTSA by 14.3
Total 71.7
Book line
Not posted
Final UTSA by 14. 104 points. No book line was saved for this game.
UTSA 83% · total 71.7Full preview → - FinalESPN+
UNLV33final 38
Akron19final 10Final: UNLV 38, Akron 10. We projected UNLV 33-19 (82%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
UNLV by 14
Total 52.4
Book line
Not posted
Final UNLV by 28. 48 points. No book line was saved for this game.
UNLV 82% · total 52.4Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Ball State26final 13
Kent State27final 26Final: Ball State 13, Kent State 26. We projected Kent State 27-26 (52%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Kent State by 0.6
Total 53.5
Book line
Not posted
Final Kent State by 13. 39 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Kent State 52% · total 53.5Full preview → - FinalSEC Network
South Alabama23final 21
Kentucky39final 45Final: South Alabama 21, Kentucky 45. We projected Kentucky 39-23 (87%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Kentucky by 16.9
Total 62
Book line
Not posted
Final Kentucky by 24. 66 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Kentucky 87% · total 62Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Lindenwood16final 3
Eastern Michigan35final 29Final: Lindenwood 3, Eastern Michigan 29. We projected Eastern Michigan 35-16 (90%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Eastern Michigan by 19.2
Total 50.9
Book line
Not posted
Final Eastern Michigan by 26. 32 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Eastern Michigan 90% · total 50.9Full preview → - FinalBTN
UCLA32final 54
Maryland22final 3Final: UCLA 54, Maryland 3. We projected UCLA 32-22 (75%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
UCLA by 10.4
Total 54.1
Book line
Not posted
Final UCLA by 51. 57 points. No book line was saved for this game.
UCLA 75% · total 54.1Full preview → - FinalPeacock
Notre Dame46final 49
Purdue15final 10Final: Notre Dame 49, Purdue 10. We projected Notre Dame 46-15 (98%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Notre Dame by 30.6
Total 60.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Notre Dame by 39. 59 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Notre Dame 98% · total 60.6Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Northern Illinois22final 14
Georgia State37final 35Final: Northern Illinois 14, Georgia State 35. We projected Georgia State 37-22 (85%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Georgia State by 15.5
Total 59
Book line
Not posted
Final Georgia State by 21. 49 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Georgia State 85% · total 59Full preview → - FinalACC Network
Central Arkansas13final 7
Florida State45final 34Final: Central Arkansas 7, Florida State 34. We projected Florida State 45-13 (98%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Florida State by 32.6
Total 57.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Florida State by 27. 41 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Florida State 98% · total 57.6Full preview → - FinalCW
Hawai'i20final 10
Wyoming22final 27Final: Hawai'i 10, Wyoming 27. We projected Wyoming 22-20 (57%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Wyoming by 2.7
Total 42.3
Book line
Not posted
Final Wyoming by 17. 37 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Wyoming 57% · total 42.3Full preview → - FinalESPN/Disney+
Oklahoma15final 13
Georgia30final 41Final: Oklahoma 13, Georgia 41. We projected Georgia 30-15 (82%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Georgia by 14.1
Total 45.1
Book line
Not posted
Final Georgia by 28. 54 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Georgia 82% · total 45.1Full preview → - FinalABC
Ole Miss35final 28
Florida31final 52Final: Ole Miss 28, Florida 52. We projected Ole Miss 35-31 (61%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· model now
Ole Miss by 4.1
Total 65.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Florida by 24. 80 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Ole Miss 61% · total 65.2Full preview → - FinalFox
Utah31final 31
Iowa State20final 17Final: Utah 31, Iowa State 17. We projected Utah 31-20 (77%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Utah by 11.2
Total 51.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Utah by 14. 48 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Utah 77% · total 51.8Full preview → - FinalCBS
Iowa23final 20
Michigan18final 19Final: Iowa 20, Michigan 19. We projected Iowa 23-18 (62%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Iowa by 4.6
Total 40.7
Book line
Not posted
Final Iowa by 1. 39 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Iowa 62% · total 40.7Full preview → - FinalFS1
TCU21final 13
UCF23final 21Final: TCU 13, UCF 21. We projected UCF 23-21 (55%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
UCF by 2
Total 43.7
Book line
Not posted
Final UCF by 8. 34 points. No book line was saved for this game.
UCF 55% · total 43.7Full preview → - FinalACCNX
William & Mary3final 7
Duke51final 62Final: William & Mary 7, Duke 62. We projected Duke 51-3 (100%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Duke by 48.3
Total 54.4
Book line
Not posted
Final Duke by 55. 69 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Duke 100% · total 54.4Full preview → - FinalESPN2
Boise State32final 32
Western Michigan22final 7Final: Boise State 32, Western Michigan 7. We projected Boise State 32-22 (75%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Boise State by 10.2
Total 53.4
Book line
Not posted
Final Boise State by 25. 39 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Boise State 75% · total 53.4Full preview → - FinalESPN+
UConn28final 21
Miami (OH)27final 24Final: UConn 21, Miami (OH) 24. We projected UConn 28-27 (53%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· model now
UConn by 1.1
Total 54.4
Book line
Not posted
Final Miami (OH) by 3. 45 points. No book line was saved for this game.
UConn 53% · total 54.4Full preview → - FinalCBSSN
New Mexico33final 42
New Mexico State17final 18Final: New Mexico 42, New Mexico State 18. We projected New Mexico 33-17 (85%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
New Mexico by 16.1
Total 49.6
Book line
Not posted
Final New Mexico by 24. 60 points. No book line was saved for this game.
New Mexico 85% · total 49.6Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Robert Morris15final 28
Buffalo33final 31Final: Robert Morris 28, Buffalo 31. We projected Buffalo 33-15 (88%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Buffalo by 18.1
Total 47.9
Book line
Not posted
Final Buffalo by 3. 59 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Buffalo 88% · total 47.9Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Stonehill8final 7
Ohio37final 35Final: Stonehill 7, Ohio 35. We projected Ohio 37-8 (97%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Ohio by 29.5
Total 45.1
Book line
Not posted
Final Ohio by 28. 42 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Ohio 97% · total 45.1Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Gardner-Webb19final 35
Marshall31final 36Final: Gardner-Webb 35, Marshall 36. We projected Marshall 31-19 (77%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Marshall by 11.2
Total 49.9
Book line
Not posted
Final Marshall by 1. 71 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Marshall 77% · total 49.9Full preview →
- FinalESPNU
Houston33final 42
Georgia Southern21final 28Final: Houston 42, Georgia Southern 28. We projected Houston 33-21 (79%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Houston by 12.5
Total 54.3
Book line
Not posted
Final Houston by 14. 70 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Houston 79% · total 54.3Full preview → - FinalESPN+
North Carolina Central12final 9
East Carolina40final 42Final: North Carolina Central 9, East Carolina 42. We projected East Carolina 40-12 (97%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
East Carolina by 28.8
Total 52.1
Book line
Not posted
Final East Carolina by 33. 51 points. No book line was saved for this game.
East Carolina 97% · total 52.1Full preview → - FinalSEC Network
Vanderbilt22final 15
Auburn29final 21Final: Vanderbilt 15, Auburn 21. We projected Auburn 29-22 (68%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Auburn by 7.1
Total 50.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Auburn by 6. 36 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Auburn 68% · total 50.8Full preview → - FinalPeacock
Wisconsin19final 24
Penn State20final 20Final: Wisconsin 24, Penn State 20. We projected Penn State 20-19 (51%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· model now
Penn State by 0.6
Total 39.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Wisconsin by 4. 44 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Penn State 51% · total 39.2Full preview → - FinalBTN
Nebraska31final 31
Michigan State17final 13Final: Nebraska 31, Michigan State 13. We projected Nebraska 31-17 (82%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Nebraska by 13.7
Total 48.1
Book line
Not posted
Final Nebraska by 18. 44 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Nebraska 82% · total 48.1Full preview → - FinalESPN+
South Florida28final 14
Bowling Green15final 6Final: South Florida 14, Bowling Green 6. We projected South Florida 28-15 (80%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
South Florida by 12.7
Total 42.6
Book line
Not posted
Final South Florida by 8. 20 points. No book line was saved for this game.
South Florida 80% · total 42.6Full preview → - FinalACC Network
Delaware20final 3
Virginia33final 42Final: Delaware 3, Virginia 42. We projected Virginia 33-20 (82%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Virginia by 13.7
Total 52.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Virginia by 39. 45 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Virginia 82% · total 52.8Full preview → - FinalUSA Net
Incarnate Word23final 10
Texas State40final 63Final: Incarnate Word 10, Texas State 63. We projected Texas State 40-23 (86%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Texas State by 16.5
Total 62.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Texas State by 53. 73 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Texas State 86% · total 62.8Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Long Island University8final 3
Florida International32final 20Final: Long Island University 3, Florida International 20. We projected Florida International 32-8 (94%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Florida International by 23.4
Total 39.9
Book line
Not posted
Final Florida International by 17. 23 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Florida International 94% · total 39.9Full preview → - FinalESPN+
James Madison33final 46
Old Dominion16final 20Final: James Madison 46, Old Dominion 20. We projected James Madison 33-16 (86%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
James Madison by 16.6
Total 48.8
Book line
Not posted
Final James Madison by 26. 66 points. No book line was saved for this game.
James Madison 86% · total 48.8Full preview → - FinalCW
Central Michigan5final 3
Miami49final 52Final: Central Michigan 3, Miami 52. We projected Miami 49-5 (100%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Miami by 44.6
Total 53.9
Book line
Not posted
Final Miami by 49. 55 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Miami 100% · total 53.9Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Louisiana35final 34
Charlotte19final 7Final: Louisiana 34, Charlotte 7. We projected Louisiana 35-19 (86%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Louisiana by 16.8
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
Final Louisiana by 27. 41 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Louisiana 86% · total 54Full preview → - FinalESPN2
Kansas State29final 26
Cincinnati30final 31Final: Kansas State 26, Cincinnati 31. We projected Cincinnati 30-29 (53%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Cincinnati by 1.1
Total 58.5
Book line
Not posted
Final Cincinnati by 5. 57 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Cincinnati 53% · total 58.5Full preview → - FinalFS1
Oklahoma State37final 41
West Virginia35final 24Final: Oklahoma State 41, West Virginia 24. We projected Oklahoma State 37-35 (56%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Oklahoma State by 2.2
Total 71.3
Book line
Not posted
Final Oklahoma State by 17. 65 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Oklahoma State 56% · total 71.3Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Southern Miss19final 21
Tulane30final 24Final: Southern Miss 21, Tulane 24. We projected Tulane 30-19 (77%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Tulane by 11.4
Total 48.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Tulane by 3. 45 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Tulane 77% · total 48.6Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Kennesaw State22final 14
Arkansas State28final 17Final: Kennesaw State 14, Arkansas State 17. We projected Arkansas State 28-22 (66%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Arkansas State by 6.1
Total 50.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Arkansas State by 3. 31 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Arkansas State 66% · total 50.8Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Mercyhurst15final 7
Western Kentucky40final 52Final: Mercyhurst 7, Western Kentucky 52. We projected Western Kentucky 40-15 (95%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Western Kentucky by 24.9
Total 54.5
Book line
Not posted
Final Western Kentucky by 45. 59 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Western Kentucky 95% · total 54.5Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Middle Tennessee21final 13
Jacksonville State33final 23Final: Middle Tennessee 13, Jacksonville State 23. We projected Jacksonville State 33-21 (78%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Jacksonville State by 11.6
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
Final Jacksonville State by 10. 36 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Jacksonville State 78% · total 54Full preview → - FinalESPN
South Carolina22final 18
Alabama35final 49Final: South Carolina 18, Alabama 49. We projected Alabama 35-22 (80%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Alabama by 13.1
Total 57.1
Book line
Not posted
Final Alabama by 31. 67 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Alabama 80% · total 57.1Full preview → - FinalABC
Texas A&M21final 6
LSU30final 35Final: Texas A&M 6, LSU 35. We projected LSU 30-21 (73%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
LSU by 9.2
Total 51.2
Book line
Not posted
Final LSU by 29. 41 points. No book line was saved for this game.
LSU 73% · total 51.2Full preview → - FinalNBC
Oregon31final 41
USC26final 27Final: Oregon 41, USC 27. We projected Oregon 31-26 (63%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Oregon by 5
Total 57
Book line
Not posted
Final Oregon by 14. 68 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Oregon 63% · total 57Full preview → - FinalCBS
Arizona34final 34
Washington State16final 24Final: Arizona 34, Washington State 24. We projected Arizona 34-16 (88%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Arizona by 17.7
Total 49.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Arizona by 10. 58 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Arizona 88% · total 49.8Full preview → - FinalCBSSN
Troy20final 10
Utah State26final 21Final: Troy 10, Utah State 21. We projected Utah State 26-20 (66%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Utah State by 6.3
Total 45.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Utah State by 11. 31 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Utah State 66% · total 45.8Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Houston Christian13final 14
North Texas50final 63Final: Houston Christian 14, North Texas 63. We projected North Texas 50-13 (99%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
North Texas by 36.3
Total 62.7
Book line
Not posted
Final North Texas by 49. 77 points. No book line was saved for this game.
North Texas 99% · total 62.7Full preview → - FinalESPNU
App State25final 31
NC State36final 41Final: App State 31, NC State 41. We projected NC State 36-25 (77%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
NC State by 11.3
Total 61.2
Book line
Not posted
Final NC State by 10. 72 points. No book line was saved for this game.
NC State 77% · total 61.2Full preview → - FinalSEC Network
Missouri29final 24
Mississippi State25final 31Final: Missouri 24, Mississippi State 31. We projected Missouri 29-25 (61%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· model now
Missouri by 4.2
Total 54.3
Book line
Not posted
Final Mississippi State by 7. 55 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Missouri 61% · total 54.3Full preview → - FinalSECN+
Tulsa24final 6
Arkansas29final 34Final: Tulsa 6, Arkansas 34. We projected Arkansas 29-24 (64%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Arkansas by 5.5
Total 53.5
Book line
Not posted
Final Arkansas by 28. 40 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Arkansas 64% · total 53.5Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Florida Atlantic36final 45
UL Monroe29final 17Final: Florida Atlantic 45, UL Monroe 17. We projected Florida Atlantic 36-29 (69%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Florida Atlantic by 7.4
Total 65
Book line
Not posted
Final Florida Atlantic by 28. 62 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Florida Atlantic 69% · total 65Full preview → - FinalACC Network
Missouri State16final 24
SMU43final 34Final: Missouri State 24, SMU 34. We projected SMU 43-16 (96%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
SMU by 27.4
Total 59.3
Book line
Not posted
Final SMU by 10. 58 points. No book line was saved for this game.
SMU 96% · total 59.3Full preview → - FinalMW+
Oregon State43final 33
UTEP15final 7Final: Oregon State 33, UTEP 7. We projected Oregon State 43-15 (97%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Oregon State by 28.3
Total 57.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Oregon State by 26. 40 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Oregon State 97% · total 57.6Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Massachusetts28final 35
Sacramento State20final 6Final: Massachusetts 35, Sacramento State 6. We projected Massachusetts 28-20 (69%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Massachusetts by 7.5
Total 48.3
Book line
Not posted
Final Massachusetts by 29. 41 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Massachusetts 69% · total 48.3Full preview → - FinalCW
Rice16final 24
Fresno State31final 38Final: Rice 24, Fresno State 38. We projected Fresno State 31-16 (83%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Fresno State by 14.4
Total 46.7
Book line
Not posted
Final Fresno State by 14. 62 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Fresno State 83% · total 46.7Full preview → - FinalESPN
Georgia Tech31final 27
Stanford25final 34Final: Georgia Tech 27, Stanford 34. We projected Georgia Tech 31-25 (66%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· model now
Georgia Tech by 6.4
Total 56.5
Book line
Not posted
Final Stanford by 7. 61 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Georgia Tech 66% · total 56.5Full preview → - FinalFS1
Air Force27final 36
Nevada25final 33Final: Air Force 36, Nevada 33. We projected Air Force 27-25 (56%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Air Force by 2.2
Total 51.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Air Force by 3. 69 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Air Force 56% · total 51.2Full preview → - FinalFox
Minnesota20final 27
Washington28final 24Final: Minnesota 27, Washington 24. We projected Washington 28-20 (69%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· model now
Washington by 7.4
Total 47.9
Book line
Not posted
Final Minnesota by 3. 51 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Washington 69% · total 47.9Full preview →
How these numbers are made
Each team gets opponent-adjusted offense and defense ratings for points, expected points added per play and success rate, built from every snap of play-by-play with garbage time removed. Early in the season the ratings lean on a preseason prior (last two seasons, returning production, roster talent); every game played shifts them toward this year. A fitted model turns the rating gaps plus home field (about 2 points, more in the opening weeks) and rest into a margin and a total, and the margin into a calibrated win probability. See the methodology and track record and the season scorecard for how the model has actually done.
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