Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Alabama 37, South Carolina 20.2 at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Week 4. That is a heavy edge: Alabama wins about 86% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 16.8 points and 57.1 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
South Carolina is 2-1, scoring 45.3 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+28.6 per game). Alabama (No. 8) is 3-0, scoring 47.7 and allowing 21 points per game (+26.7 per game).
Alabama's elite defense (9th) should limit South Carolina's strong offense (27th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.9 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Alabama's elite offense (4th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 41 points against an average defense) against South Carolina's strong defense (23rd).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between South Carolina by 6 and Alabama by 39 about 80% of the time.
Alabama gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Alabama by about 14.7. The game is on ESPN.
Result: South Carolina 18, Alabama 49. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 14.2 points and the total by 9.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (South Carolina / Alabama) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Alabama -12.25 → Alabama -12.5 | 50.25 → 53.5 | +385 / -525 |
| DraftKings | Alabama -11.5 → Alabama -12.5 | 46.5 → 53.5 | +380 / -500 |
| Bovada | Alabama -13 → Alabama -12.5 | 54 → 53.5 | +390 / -550 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Alabama win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Alabama -17 | 57.1 | 86% |
| Market consensus | Alabama -12.5 | 53.5 | 80% |
| Blended projection | Alabama -13.5 | 54.2 | 82% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Alabama win probability
- model 86% · market (no-vig) 80% · difference +6 pts
- Margin
- model Alabama -16.8 · market Alabama -12.5 · difference +4.3 pts (Alabama view)
- Total
- model 57.1 · market 53.5 · difference +3.6
Model margin is 4.3 pts more toward Alabama than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | South Carolina 20.2, Alabama 37.0 | Alabama 86%right winner | 14.2 | 9.9 |
| New formula | South Carolina 21.0, Alabama 37.2 | Alabama 86%right winner | 14.8 | 8.8 |
Final: South Carolina 18, Alabama 49. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
South Carolina vs Alabama: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | South Carolina | Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 45.3#14 | 47.7#7 |
| Points allowed per game | 16.7#36 | 21.0#63 |
| Yards per play | 7.14#25 | 6.55#58 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.52#24 | 5.63#84 |
| Rushing yards per game | 277.7#7 | 223.7#35 |
| Net passing yards per game | 234.0#66 | 232.3#68 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 98.3#22 | 74.3#4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 159.3#31 | 237.0#105 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#80 | 1.33#103 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.67#83 | 2.00#6 |
| Sacks per game | 2.67#23 | 3.33#10 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.67#73 | 2.00#92 |
| Stat | South Carolina | Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.07#81 | +0.27#8 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07#90 | -0.12#17 |
| Success rate | 42.1%#89 | 50.0%#19 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.6%#53 | 33.8%#17 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.2%#65 | 17.9%#4 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.4%#87 | 13.5%#106 |
| Havoc rate | 14.4%#60 | 18.9%#11 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.0%#94 | 15.8%#116 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.22#73 | 5.04#21 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.60#116 | 5.09#129 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#106 | own 34#22 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#53 | own 26#28 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 71.7#23 | 69.7#33 |
| Stat | South Carolina | Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.15#33 | +0.24#10 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.00#96 | +0.31#18 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.06#34 | -0.20#5 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.18#110 | -0.04#45 |
| Rushing success rate | 52.9%#12 | 53.0%#11 |
| Passing success rate | 39.3%#98 | 46.4%#49 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.2%#45 | 19.3%#100 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.5%#102 | 33.3%#56 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.5%#100 | 29.4%#71 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 50.0%#25 | 44.7%#56 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 31.7%#34 | 27.0%#16 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 59.6%#91 | 76.5%#20 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 65.6%#92 | 87.5%#131 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: South Carolina schedule · Alabama schedule · all Week 4 projections
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