2026 schedule
Alabama Crimson Tide
2026 season so far
Alabama (No. 10) is 6-2 against the 2nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 38.3 and allowing 21.3 points per game (+17 per game).
In our opponent-adjusted ratings Alabama ranks 6th of 139 FBS teams overall — 5th on offense and 9th on defense. The offense carries this team more than the defense does.
Next up: at LSU in Week 10. We project Alabama 28, LSU 27 — Alabama wins 51% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 games- vs
East Carolina Pirates
0-1 · SOS #95
Win 48-10
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Alabama by 6.3
Total 53.1
Book line
Not posted
Final Alabama by 38. 58 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ABC Bryant-Denny Stadium - at
Kentucky Wildcats
1-1 · SOS #4
Win 45-17
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Alabama by 4.6
Total 50.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Alabama by 28. 62 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ABC/Disney+ Kroger Field - vs
Florida State Seminoles
1-2 · SOS #13
Win 50-36
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Alabama by 12.5
Total 53.5
Book line
Not posted
Final Alabama by 14. 86 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN2 Bryant-Denny Stadium - vs
South Carolina Gamecocks
2-2 · SOS #23
Win 49-18
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Alabama by 16.8
Total 57.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Alabama by 31. 67 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 73°F, Wind 3 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KTCL)ESPN Bryant-Denny Stadium - at
#16 Mississippi State Bulldogs
4-1 · SOS #5
Win 56-23
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Alabama by 9.9
Total 64.7
Book line
Not posted
Final Alabama by 33. 79 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 86°F, Wind 5 mph ENE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KGTR)ABC Davis Wade Stadium - vs
#2 Georgia Bulldogs
6-0 · SOS #52
Loss 17-20
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Alabama by 1.4
Total 63.4
Book line
Not posted
Final Georgia by 3. 37 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 63°F, Wind 6 mph W.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KTCL)ABC Bryant-Denny Stadium - at
#14 Tennessee Volunteers
6-1 · SOS #25
Loss 10-26
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Alabama by 7.9
Total 58.5
Book line
Not posted
Final Tennessee by 16. 36 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Mostly clear, 57°F, Wind 10 mph NNE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KTYS)ABC Neyland Stadium - vs
Texas A&M Aggies
4-4 · SOS #27
Win 31-20
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Alabama by 12.6
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
Final Alabama by 11. 51 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 75°F, Wind 10 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KTCL)ABC Bryant-Denny Stadium - at
#15 LSU Tigers
6-2 · SOS #18
Sat, Nov 7, 8:30 PM
Week 10
Proj 28-27 · 51%
Our number
Alabama by 1
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ABC Tiger Stadium (LA) - at
Vanderbilt Commodores
3-5 · SOS #16
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 38-18 · 90%
Our number
Alabama by 20
Total 56
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
FirstBank Stadium - vs
Chattanooga Mocs
5-3 · SOS #87
Sat, Nov 21, 7:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 45-2 · 100%
Our number
Alabama by 43
Total 47
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
SECN+ Bryant-Denny Stadium - vs
Auburn Tigers
4-3 · SOS #3
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 35-16 · 89%
Our number
Alabama by 19
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Bryant-Denny Stadium
Times shown in your local time
Alabama Crimson Tide stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
+23.0
6th in FBS
Adj. offense
39.0
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
16.0
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 38.3 | 13 / 138 |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 21.3 | 50 / 138 |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.64 | 28 / 138 |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.70 | 75 / 138 |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 166.5 | 70 / 138 |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 246.9 | 47 / 138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 121.1 | 24 / 138 |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 232.4 | 106 / 138 |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.13 | 97 / 138 |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 2.00 | 3 / 138 |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.50 | 34 / 138 |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 2.88 | 124 / 138 |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.17 | 32 / 138 |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.00 | 45 / 138 |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 46.8% | 32 / 138 |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 37.6% | 29 / 138 |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 16.1% | 12 / 138 |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 12.3% | 83 / 138 |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 14.9% | 45 / 138 |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 16.3% | 129 / 138 |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.73 | 26 / 138 |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 4.55 | 119 / 138 |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | own 33 | 17 / 138 |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | own 26 | 11 / 138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 62.3 | 104 / 138 |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.14 | 35 / 138 |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.21 | 33 / 138 |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | 0.00 | 56 / 138 |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.00 | 49 / 138 |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 48.4% | 27 / 138 |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 45.4% | 42 / 138 |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 19.0% | 98 / 138 |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 32.3% | 54 / 138 |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 29.2% | 65 / 138 |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 43.2% | 54 / 138 |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 36.2% | 45 / 138 |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 82.4% | 4 / 138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 64.0% | 93 / 138 |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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