Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Alabama 27.4, Kentucky 22.8 at Kroger Field in Week 2. That is a lean: Alabama wins about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.6 points and 50.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Alabama (No. 12) is 1-0, scoring 48 and allowing 10 points per game (+38 per game). Kentucky is 1-0, scoring 45 and allowing 13 points per game (+32 per game).
Alabama's elite offense (8th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 39.4 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Kentucky's middle-of-the-pack defense (46th); that mismatch is where most of Alabama's projected points come from. Expect Kentucky to find it hard going: Alabama's elite defense (6th) outranks Kentucky's middle-of-the-pack offense (57th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Alabama by 27 and Kentucky by 18 about 80% of the time.
Kentucky gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Alabama is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ABC/Disney+.
Result: Alabama 45, Kentucky 17. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 23.4 points and the total by 11.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Alabama / Kentucky) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Alabama -10.5 → Alabama -8.75 | 49 → 47.25 | -395 / +302.5 |
| Bovada | Alabama -10.5 → Alabama -8 | 49 → 47 | -430 / +320 |
| DraftKings | Alabama -10.5 → Alabama -9.5 | 47.5 | -360 / +285 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Kentucky win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Alabama -4.5 | 50.1 | 38% |
| Market consensus | Alabama -8.5 | 47.3 | 24% |
| Blended projection | Alabama -8 | 48.4 | 29% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Kentucky win probability
- model 38% · market (no-vig) 24% · difference +14 pts
- Margin
- model Alabama -4.6 · market Alabama -8.75 · difference +4.2 pts (Kentucky view)
- Total
- model 50.1 · market 47.25 · difference +2.9
Model margin is 4.2 pts more toward Kentucky than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Alabama 27.4, Kentucky 22.8 | Alabama 62%right winner | 23.4 | 11.9 |
| New formula | Alabama 33.8, Kentucky 18.3 | Alabama 83%right winner | 12.5 | 10.0 |
Final: Alabama 45, Kentucky 17. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Alabama vs Kentucky: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Alabama | Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.5#50 | 23.0#101 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.2#20 | 26.4#75 |
| Yards per play | 5.78#77 | 5.56#94 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.25#29 | 5.96#89 |
| Rushing yards per game | 119.7#126 | 155.8#82 |
| Net passing yards per game | 260.7#30 | 211.9#88 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 144.5#39 | 147.6#41 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 171.7#10 | 244.6#114 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.67#10 | 1.33#109 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.33#31 | 1.17#53 |
| Sacks per game | 2.20#55 | 2.08#58 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.20#96 | 2.25#102 |
| Stat | Alabama | Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03#65 | -0.03#109 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.06#35 | +0.02#80 |
| Success rate | 43.0%#57 | 42.0%#76 |
| Success rate allowed | 37.8%#21 | 44.4%#103 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.8%#59 | 10.9%#116 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.4%#45 | 12.2%#63 |
| Havoc rate | 14.8%#15 | 13.0%#57 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.1%#19 | 11.7%#57 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.36#30 | 4.03#62 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.95#79 | 4.05#91 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#84 | own 30#53 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#56 | own 29#63 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.8#74 | 66.2#67 |
| Stat | Alabama | Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.06#113 | +0.04#62 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.11#39 | -0.11#117 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#55 | -0.03#46 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.10#29 | +0.07#93 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.2%#101 | 45.4%#47 |
| Passing success rate | 45.2%#30 | 38.4%#101 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.6%#75 | 16.5%#38 |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.7%#31 | 26.7%#113 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.8%#41 | 30.5%#83 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.9%#51 | 41.7%#59 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.9%#42 | 42.3%#92 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 72.4%#16 | 66.7%#36 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 55.3%#35 | 67.4%#113 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Alabama schedule · Kentucky schedule · all Week 2 projections
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