Week 2 College Football Projections (2026)
Updated Oct 26, 2026
Week 2 of the 2026 college football season has 86 FBS games on our board. The closest projected matchup is Mississippi State at Minnesota (1-point margin), the highest projected total is UTSA at Texas State (72.1 points) and the lowest is Oklahoma at Michigan (32.3). 7 games are rated a toss-up (neither side above 58%).
86 games have finished so far: the model picked the winner in 76 of them (88%).
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Every FBS game
CSV download · Sports Pro- FinalACC Network
Florida A&M0final 7
Miami62final 77Final: Florida A&M 7, Miami 77. We projected Miami 62-0 (100%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Miami by 67.4
Total 57.5
Book line
Not posted
Final Miami by 70. 84 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Miami 100% · total 57.5Full preview → - FinalACC Network
Villanova12final 13
Louisville44final 59Final: Villanova 13, Louisville 59. We projected Louisville 44-12 (98%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Louisville by 31.8
Total 56.7
Book line
Not posted
Final Louisville by 46. 72 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Louisville 98% · total 56.7Full preview → - FinalACCNX
Norfolk State11final 3
Virginia38final 59Final: Norfolk State 3, Virginia 59. We projected Virginia 38-11 (96%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Virginia by 27
Total 49.1
Book line
Not posted
Final Virginia by 56. 62 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Virginia 96% · total 49.1Full preview → - FinalESPNU
Richmond14final 0
NC State40final 73Final: Richmond 0, NC State 73. We projected NC State 40-14 (96%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
NC State by 26
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
Final NC State by 73. 73 points. No book line was saved for this game.
NC State 96% · total 54Full preview → - FinalESPN2
Rutgers27final 21
Boston College30final 28Final: Rutgers 21, Boston College 28. We projected Boston College 30-27 (58%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Boston College by 3
Total 56.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Boston College by 7. 49 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Boston College 58% · total 56.2Full preview → - FinalFox
Missouri28final 38
Kansas22final 21Final: Missouri 38, Kansas 21. We projected Missouri 28-22 (63%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Missouri by 5.2
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
Final Missouri by 17. 59 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Missouri 63% · total 50Full preview → - FinalBTN
Howard0final 0
Indiana52final 55Final: Howard 0, Indiana 55. We projected Indiana 52-0 (100%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Indiana by 58.2
Total 46.1
Book line
Not posted
Final Indiana by 55. 55 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Indiana 100% · total 46.1Full preview → - FinalABC
Arizona State18final 20
Texas A&M34final 48Final: Arizona State 20, Texas A&M 48. We projected Texas A&M 34-18 (85%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Texas A&M by 15.8
Total 51.5
Book line
Not posted
Final Texas A&M by 28. 68 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Texas A&M 85% · total 51.5Full preview → - FinalFox
Oklahoma18final 10
Michigan15final 17Final: Oklahoma 10, Michigan 17. We projected Oklahoma 18-15 (57%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· model now
Oklahoma by 2.8
Total 32.3
Book line
Not posted
Final Michigan by 7. 27 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Oklahoma 57% · total 32.3Full preview → - FinalESPN2
Penn State34final 27
Temple19final 9Final: Penn State 27, Temple 9. We projected Penn State 34-19 (84%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Penn State by 14.9
Total 52.3
Book line
Not posted
Final Penn State by 18. 36 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Penn State 84% · total 52.3Full preview → - FinalTNT
Washington State19final 7
Kansas State34final 34Final: Washington State 7, Kansas State 34. We projected Kansas State 34-19 (84%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Kansas State by 15.2
Total 52.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Kansas State by 27. 41 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Kansas State 84% · total 52.2Full preview → - FinalACCNX
East Tennessee State17final 3
North Carolina35final 35Final: East Tennessee State 3, North Carolina 35. We projected North Carolina 35-17 (88%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
North Carolina by 17.8
Total 51.6
Book line
Not posted
Final North Carolina by 32. 38 points. No book line was saved for this game.
North Carolina 88% · total 51.6Full preview → - FinalCW
Old Dominion14final 21
Virginia Tech32final 44Final: Old Dominion 21, Virginia Tech 44. We projected Virginia Tech 32-14 (88%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Virginia Tech by 18.1
Total 45.9
Book line
Not posted
Final Virginia Tech by 23. 65 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Virginia Tech 88% · total 45.9Full preview → - FinalFS1
Wake Forest36final 38
Purdue22final 36Final: Wake Forest 38, Purdue 36. We projected Wake Forest 36-22 (82%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Wake Forest by 14.1
Total 57.3
Book line
Not posted
Final Wake Forest by 2. 74 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Wake Forest 82% · total 57.3Full preview → - FinalCBSSN
South Florida24final 28
Army26final 24Final: South Florida 28, Army 24. We projected Army 26-24 (57%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· model now
Army by 2.8
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
Final South Florida by 4. 52 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Army 57% · total 50Full preview → - FinalESPNU
App State22final 27
East Carolina30final 24Final: App State 27, East Carolina 24. We projected East Carolina 30-22 (71%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· model now
East Carolina by 8.2
Total 52.5
Book line
Not posted
Final App State by 3. 51 points. No book line was saved for this game.
East Carolina 71% · total 52.5Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Wofford22final 15
Kent State27final 36Final: Wofford 15, Kent State 36. We projected Kent State 27-22 (63%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Kent State by 5
Total 48.9
Book line
Not posted
Final Kent State by 21. 51 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Kent State 63% · total 48.9Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Wagner1final 3
James Madison53final 87Final: Wagner 3, James Madison 87. We projected James Madison 53-1 (100%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
James Madison by 52.3
Total 54.5
Book line
Not posted
Final James Madison by 84. 90 points. No book line was saved for this game.
James Madison 100% · total 54.5Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Gardner-Webb11final 23
Liberty36final 24Final: Gardner-Webb 23, Liberty 24. We projected Liberty 36-11 (95%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Liberty by 25.1
Total 46.4
Book line
Not posted
Final Liberty by 1. 47 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Liberty 95% · total 46.4Full preview → - FinalSEC Network
Western Kentucky9final 20
Georgia46final 70Final: Western Kentucky 20, Georgia 70. We projected Georgia 46-9 (99%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Georgia by 37.4
Total 54.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Georgia by 50. 90 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Georgia 99% · total 54.8Full preview → - FinalESPN+
UT Martin18final 7
West Virginia43final 52Final: UT Martin 7, West Virginia 52. We projected West Virginia 43-18 (95%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
West Virginia by 24.9
Total 60.5
Book line
Not posted
Final West Virginia by 45. 59 points. No book line was saved for this game.
West Virginia 95% · total 60.5Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Colgate18final 10
Central Michigan27final 13Final: Colgate 10, Central Michigan 13. We projected Central Michigan 27-18 (71%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Central Michigan by 8.6
Total 44.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Central Michigan by 3. 23 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Central Michigan 71% · total 44.6Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Holy Cross17final 7
Miami (OH)33final 45Final: Holy Cross 7, Miami (OH) 45. We projected Miami (OH) 33-17 (86%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Miami (OH) by 16.2
Total 50.3
Book line
Not posted
Final Miami (OH) by 38. 52 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Miami (OH) 86% · total 50.3Full preview → - FinalESPNEWS/Disney+
Oregon35final 31
Oklahoma State21final 39Final: Oregon 31, Oklahoma State 39. We projected Oregon 35-21 (82%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· model now
Oregon by 14.2
Total 56.1
Book line
Not posted
Final Oklahoma State by 8. 70 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Oregon 82% · total 56.1Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Stony Brook28final 17
Ball State32final 41Final: Stony Brook 17, Ball State 41. We projected Ball State 32-28 (62%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Ball State by 4.5
Total 59.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Ball State by 24. 58 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Ball State 62% · total 59.6Full preview → - FinalNBC
Rice3final 0
Notre Dame49final 52Final: Rice 0, Notre Dame 52. We projected Notre Dame 49-3 (100%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Notre Dame by 45.1
Total 52.1
Book line
Not posted
Final Notre Dame by 52. 52 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Notre Dame 100% · total 52.1Full preview → - FinalABC/Disney+
Alabama34final 45
Kentucky21final 17Final: Alabama 45, Kentucky 17. We projected Alabama 34-21 (80%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Alabama by 12.6
Total 55.3
Book line
Not posted
Final Alabama by 28. 62 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Alabama 80% · total 55.3Full preview → - FinalFox
Arizona23final 17
BYU29final 28Final: Arizona 17, BYU 28. We projected BYU 29-23 (64%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
BYU by 5.3
Total 51.9
Book line
Not posted
Final BYU by 11. 45 points. No book line was saved for this game.
BYU 64% · total 51.9Full preview → - FinalBTN
Utah State16final 14
Washington31final 16Final: Utah State 14, Washington 16. We projected Washington 31-16 (83%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Washington by 14.7
Total 47.5
Book line
Not posted
Final Washington by 2. 30 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Washington 83% · total 47.5Full preview → - FinalCBS
Mississippi State28final 38
Minnesota26final 13Final: Mississippi State 38, Minnesota 13. We projected Mississippi State 28-26 (53%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Mississippi State by 1
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
Final Mississippi State by 25. 51 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Mississippi State 53% · total 54Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Weber State19final 21
Colorado39final 52Final: Weber State 21, Colorado 52. We projected Colorado 39-19 (91%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Colorado by 20
Total 58.4
Book line
Not posted
Final Colorado by 31. 73 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Colorado 91% · total 58.4Full preview → - FinalESPN2
UCF24final 7
Pittsburgh30final 12Final: UCF 7, Pittsburgh 12. We projected Pittsburgh 30-24 (65%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Pittsburgh by 5.9
Total 54.3
Book line
Not posted
Final Pittsburgh by 5. 19 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Pittsburgh 65% · total 54.3Full preview → - FinalACC Network
California23final 21
Syracuse34final 18Final: California 21, Syracuse 18. We projected Syracuse 34-23 (76%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· model now
Syracuse by 10.7
Total 57.2
Book line
Not posted
Final California by 3. 39 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Syracuse 76% · total 57.2Full preview → - FinalFS1
Duke26final 31
Illinois28final 27Final: Duke 31, Illinois 27. We projected Illinois 28-26 (55%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· model now
Illinois by 2
Total 53.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Duke by 4. 58 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Illinois 55% · total 53.6Full preview → - FinalBTN
Eastern Michigan19final 7
Michigan State30final 35Final: Eastern Michigan 7, Michigan State 35. We projected Michigan State 30-19 (77%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Michigan State by 11.3
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
Final Michigan State by 28. 42 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Michigan State 77% · total 49Full preview → - FinalCBSSN
Maryland29final 38
UConn30final 14Final: Maryland 38, UConn 14. We projected UConn 30-29 (54%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· model now
UConn by 1.4
Total 59.3
Book line
Not posted
Final Maryland by 24. 52 points. No book line was saved for this game.
UConn 54% · total 59.3Full preview → - FinalCW
UTSA34final 31
Texas State38final 26Final: UTSA 31, Texas State 26. We projected Texas State 38-34 (59%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· model now
Texas State by 3.3
Total 72.1
Book line
Not posted
Final UTSA by 5. 57 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Texas State 59% · total 72.1Full preview → - FinalESPN+
UL Monroe22final 20
UAB30final 26Final: UL Monroe 20, UAB 26. We projected UAB 30-22 (70%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
UAB by 8
Total 51.3
Book line
Not posted
Final UAB by 6. 46 points. No book line was saved for this game.
UAB 70% · total 51.3Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Robert Morris19final 10
Akron31final 45Final: Robert Morris 10, Akron 45. We projected Akron 31-19 (80%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Akron by 12.7
Total 50.3
Book line
Not posted
Final Akron by 35. 55 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Akron 80% · total 50.3Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Central Connecticut22final 10
Toledo41final 63Final: Central Connecticut 10, Toledo 63. We projected Toledo 41-22 (89%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Toledo by 18.9
Total 62.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Toledo by 53. 73 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Toledo 89% · total 62.8Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Sacred Heart18final 10
Massachusetts31final 37Final: Sacred Heart 10, Massachusetts 37. We projected Massachusetts 31-18 (80%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Massachusetts by 12.7
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
Final Massachusetts by 27. 47 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Massachusetts 80% · total 49Full preview → - FinalESPNU
UNLV29final 6
North Texas37final 44Final: UNLV 6, North Texas 44. We projected North Texas 37-29 (69%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
North Texas by 7.5
Total 65.5
Book line
Not posted
Final North Texas by 38. 50 points. No book line was saved for this game.
North Texas 69% · total 65.5Full preview → - FinalACCNX
UC Davis15final 10
SMU43final 56Final: UC Davis 10, SMU 56. We projected SMU 43-15 (97%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
SMU by 27.7
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
Final SMU by 46. 66 points. No book line was saved for this game.
SMU 97% · total 58Full preview →
- FinalMW+
Northern Colorado11final 13
Wyoming30final 21Final: Northern Colorado 13, Wyoming 21. We projected Wyoming 30-11 (89%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Wyoming by 18.9
Total 41
Book line
Not posted
Final Wyoming by 8. 34 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Wyoming 89% · total 41Full preview → - FinalMW+
Mercyhurst6final 7
New Mexico50final 70Final: Mercyhurst 7, New Mexico 70. We projected New Mexico 50-6 (100%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
New Mexico by 43.9
Total 55.2
Book line
Not posted
Final New Mexico by 63. 77 points. No book line was saved for this game.
New Mexico 100% · total 55.2Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Alabama State21final 17
Troy28final 34Final: Alabama State 17, Troy 34. We projected Troy 28-21 (67%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Troy by 6.9
Total 48.4
Book line
Not posted
Final Troy by 17. 51 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Troy 67% · total 48.4Full preview → - FinalSEC Network
Delaware23final 26
Vanderbilt36final 35Final: Delaware 26, Vanderbilt 35. We projected Vanderbilt 36-23 (82%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Vanderbilt by 13.7
Total 59
Book line
Not posted
Final Vanderbilt by 9. 61 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Vanderbilt 82% · total 59Full preview → - FinalSECN+
Campbell13final 3
Florida47final 52Final: Campbell 3, Florida 52. We projected Florida 47-13 (99%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Florida by 33.5
Total 59.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Florida by 49. 55 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Florida 99% · total 59.6Full preview → - FinalUSA Net
Memphis23final 20
Boise State36final 38Final: Memphis 20, Boise State 38. We projected Boise State 36-23 (82%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Boise State by 13.8
Total 58.9
Book line
Not posted
Final Boise State by 18. 58 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Boise State 82% · total 58.9Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Buffalo18final 20
Florida International25final 33Final: Buffalo 20, Florida International 33. We projected Florida International 25-18 (67%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Florida International by 6.6
Total 43.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Florida International by 13. 53 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Florida International 67% · total 43.2Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Jacksonville State23final 27
Ohio30final 29Final: Jacksonville State 27, Ohio 29. We projected Ohio 30-23 (66%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Ohio by 6.3
Total 52.9
Book line
Not posted
Final Ohio by 2. 56 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Ohio 66% · total 52.9Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Monmouth20final 14
Western Michigan38final 49Final: Monmouth 14, Western Michigan 49. We projected Western Michigan 38-20 (88%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Western Michigan by 17.7
Total 57.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Western Michigan by 35. 63 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Western Michigan 88% · total 57.6Full preview → - FinalESPN
Tennessee37final 45
Georgia Tech19final 24Final: Tennessee 45, Georgia Tech 24. We projected Tennessee 37-19 (89%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Tennessee by 18.4
Total 55.5
Book line
Not posted
Final Tennessee by 21. 69 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Tennessee 89% · total 55.5Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Southern4final 6
Houston50final 77Final: Southern 6, Houston 77. We projected Houston 50-4 (100%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Houston by 46.1
Total 53.7
Book line
Not posted
Final Houston by 71. 83 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Houston 100% · total 53.7Full preview → - FinalSECN+
Towson5final 9
South Carolina50final 45Final: Towson 9, South Carolina 45. We projected South Carolina 50-5 (100%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
South Carolina by 44.8
Total 55.4
Book line
Not posted
Final South Carolina by 36. 54 points. No book line was saved for this game.
South Carolina 100% · total 55.4Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Western Carolina20final 10
Cincinnati43final 62Final: Western Carolina 10, Cincinnati 62. We projected Cincinnati 43-20 (94%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Cincinnati by 23.2
Total 62.9
Book line
Not posted
Final Cincinnati by 52. 72 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Cincinnati 94% · total 62.9Full preview → - FinalFS1
Bowling Green7final 7
Nebraska39final 56Final: Bowling Green 7, Nebraska 56. We projected Nebraska 39-7 (98%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Nebraska by 31.9
Total 45.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Nebraska by 49. 63 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Nebraska 98% · total 45.8Full preview → - FinalCBSSN
Southern Utah30final 24
Colorado State38final 58Final: Southern Utah 24, Colorado State 58. We projected Colorado State 38-30 (68%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Colorado State by 7.3
Total 67.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Colorado State by 34. 82 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Colorado State 68% · total 67.8Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Tulsa31final 23
Sam Houston19final 17Final: Tulsa 23, Sam Houston 17. We projected Tulsa 31-19 (79%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Tulsa by 12.2
Total 50.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Tulsa by 6. 40 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Tulsa 79% · total 50.6Full preview → - FinalMW+
Illinois State31final 28
Northern Illinois21final 24Final: Illinois State 28, Northern Illinois 24. We projected Illinois State 31-21 (75%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Illinois State by 10.4
Total 52.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Illinois State by 4. 52 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Illinois State 75% · total 52.2Full preview → - FinalESPN+
South Alabama25final 24
Tulane29final 28Final: South Alabama 24, Tulane 28. We projected Tulane 29-25 (61%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Tulane by 4.1
Total 54.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Tulane by 4. 52 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Tulane 61% · total 54.6Full preview → - FinalESPN+
West Georgia16final 7
Arkansas State36final 52Final: West Georgia 7, Arkansas State 52. We projected Arkansas State 36-16 (91%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Arkansas State by 20.3
Total 52.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Arkansas State by 45. 59 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Arkansas State 91% · total 52.2Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Georgia State29final 31
Kennesaw State25final 17Final: Georgia State 31, Kennesaw State 17. We projected Georgia State 29-25 (62%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Georgia State by 4.8
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
Final Georgia State by 14. 48 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Georgia State 62% · total 54Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Middle Tennessee23final 26
Marshall30final 28Final: Middle Tennessee 26, Marshall 28. We projected Marshall 30-23 (67%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Marshall by 6.7
Total 53.1
Book line
Not posted
Final Marshall by 2. 54 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Marshall 67% · total 53.1Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Lindenwood21final 14
Missouri State35final 48Final: Lindenwood 14, Missouri State 48. We projected Missouri State 35-21 (83%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Missouri State by 14.4
Total 55.4
Book line
Not posted
Final Missouri State by 34. 62 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Missouri State 83% · total 55.4Full preview → - FinalBTN
San Diego State16final 10
UCLA36final 28Final: San Diego State 10, UCLA 28. We projected UCLA 36-16 (90%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
UCLA by 20
Total 52.8
Book line
Not posted
Final UCLA by 18. 38 points. No book line was saved for this game.
UCLA 90% · total 52.8Full preview → - FinalBTN
Western Illinois11final 9
Wisconsin41final 36Final: Western Illinois 9, Wisconsin 36. We projected Wisconsin 41-11 (97%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Wisconsin by 29.8
Total 51.4
Book line
Not posted
Final Wisconsin by 27. 45 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Wisconsin 97% · total 51.4Full preview → - FinalABC
Ohio State28final 23
Texas21final 24Final: Ohio State 23, Texas 24. We projected Ohio State 28-21 (66%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· model now
Ohio State by 6.2
Total 49.1
Book line
Not posted
Final Texas by 1. 47 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Ohio State 66% · total 49.1Full preview → - FinalSECN+
Louisiana Tech14final 14
LSU37final 45Final: Louisiana Tech 14, LSU 45. We projected LSU 37-14 (94%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
LSU by 23.2
Total 51.6
Book line
Not posted
Final LSU by 31. 59 points. No book line was saved for this game.
LSU 94% · total 51.6Full preview → - FinalCBS
Texas Tech33final 35
Oregon State26final 24Final: Texas Tech 35, Oregon State 24. We projected Texas Tech 33-26 (68%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Texas Tech by 7.1
Total 59.9
Book line
Not posted
Final Texas Tech by 11. 59 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Texas Tech 68% · total 59.9Full preview → - FinalNBC
Iowa State15final 13
Iowa31final 16Final: Iowa State 13, Iowa 16. We projected Iowa 31-15 (86%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Iowa by 16.3
Total 46.3
Book line
Not posted
Final Iowa by 3. 29 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Iowa 86% · total 46.3Full preview → - FinalESPNU
Navy35final 30
Florida Atlantic30final 38Final: Navy 30, Florida Atlantic 38. We projected Navy 35-30 (62%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· model now
Navy by 4.6
Total 65.5
Book line
Not posted
Final Florida Atlantic by 8. 68 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Navy 62% · total 65.5Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Fordham13final 7
Coastal Carolina37final 45Final: Fordham 7, Coastal Carolina 45. We projected Coastal Carolina 37-13 (94%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Coastal Carolina by 23.7
Total 50.7
Book line
Not posted
Final Coastal Carolina by 38. 52 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Coastal Carolina 94% · total 50.7Full preview → - FinalESPN2
Charlotte8final 9
Ole Miss52final 41Final: Charlotte 9, Ole Miss 41. We projected Ole Miss 52-8 (100%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Ole Miss by 44.5
Total 59.9
Book line
Not posted
Final Ole Miss by 32. 50 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Ole Miss 100% · total 59.9Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Grambling11final 7
TCU44final 63Final: Grambling 7, TCU 63. We projected TCU 44-11 (98%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
TCU by 32.9
Total 54.3
Book line
Not posted
Final TCU by 56. 70 points. No book line was saved for this game.
TCU 98% · total 54.3Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Prairie View A&M8final 3
Baylor42final 44Final: Prairie View A&M 3, Baylor 44. We projected Baylor 42-8 (99%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Baylor by 33.5
Total 50.3
Book line
Not posted
Final Baylor by 41. 47 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Baylor 99% · total 50.3Full preview → - FinalSEC Network
Southern Miss16final 8
Auburn37final 43Final: Southern Miss 8, Auburn 43. We projected Auburn 37-16 (92%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Auburn by 21.4
Total 52.5
Book line
Not posted
Final Auburn by 35. 51 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Auburn 92% · total 52.5Full preview → - FinalMW+
Cal Poly19final 20
San José State33final 30Final: Cal Poly 20, San José State 30. We projected San José State 33-19 (83%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
San José State by 14.3
Total 52.5
Book line
Not posted
Final San José State by 10. 50 points. No book line was saved for this game.
San José State 83% · total 52.5Full preview → - FinalMW+
Texas Southern21final 10
UTEP35final 51Final: Texas Southern 10, UTEP 51. We projected UTEP 35-21 (82%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
UTEP by 13.9
Total 56.8
Book line
Not posted
Final UTEP by 41. 61 points. No book line was saved for this game.
UTEP 82% · total 56.8Full preview → - FinalACC Network
Georgia Southern19final 7
Clemson28final 22Final: Georgia Southern 7, Clemson 22. We projected Clemson 28-19 (74%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Clemson by 10
Total 47
Book line
Not posted
Final Clemson by 15. 29 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Clemson 74% · total 47Full preview → - FinalFS1
North Dakota State27final 38
Air Force21final 32Final: North Dakota State 38, Air Force 32. We projected North Dakota State 27-21 (66%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
North Dakota State by 6.1
Total 47.8
Book line
Not posted
Final North Dakota State by 6. 70 points. No book line was saved for this game.
North Dakota State 66% · total 47.8Full preview → - FinalESPN
Arkansas18final 10
Utah35final 43Final: Arkansas 10, Utah 43. We projected Utah 35-18 (87%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Utah by 17.4
Total 52.9
Book line
Not posted
Final Utah by 33. 53 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Utah 87% · total 52.9Full preview → - FinalCBSSN
Sacramento State10final 3
Fresno State38final 49Final: Sacramento State 3, Fresno State 49. We projected Fresno State 38-10 (96%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Fresno State by 27
Total 48
Book line
Not posted
Final Fresno State by 46. 52 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Fresno State 96% · total 48Full preview → - FinalCW
Montana State29final 20
Nevada24final 7Final: Montana State 20, Nevada 7. We projected Montana State 29-24 (65%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Montana State by 5.8
Total 52.9
Book line
Not posted
Final Montana State by 13. 27 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Montana State 65% · total 52.9Full preview → - FinalBTN
Louisiana20final 30
USC37final 49Final: Louisiana 30, USC 49. We projected USC 37-20 (87%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
USC by 17.3
Total 57.7
Book line
Not posted
Final USC by 19. 79 points. No book line was saved for this game.
USC 87% · total 57.7Full preview → - FinalMW+
New Mexico State24final 19
Hawai'i26final 29Final: New Mexico State 19, Hawai'i 29. We projected Hawai'i 26-24 (56%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· model now
Hawai'i by 2.2
Total 49.9
Book line
Not posted
Final Hawai'i by 10. 48 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Hawai'i 56% · total 49.9Full preview →
How these numbers are made
Each team gets opponent-adjusted offense and defense ratings for points, expected points added per play and success rate, built from every snap of play-by-play with garbage time removed. Early in the season the ratings lean on a preseason prior (last two seasons, returning production, roster talent); every game played shifts them toward this year. A fitted model turns the rating gaps plus home field (about 2 points, more in the opening weeks) and rest into a margin and a total, and the margin into a calibrated win probability. See the methodology and track record and the season scorecard for how the model has actually done.
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