Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Marshall 31.3, Middle Tennessee 23.5 at Joan C. Edwards Stadium in Week 2. That is a solid edge: Marshall wins about 70% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.8 points and 54.7 combined points.
Middle Tennessee is 1-0, scoring 38 and allowing 14 points per game (+24 per game). Marshall is 0-1, scoring 0 and allowing 45 points per game (-45 per game).
Expect Middle Tennessee to find it hard going: Marshall's below-average defense (115th) outranks Middle Tennessee's struggling offense (131st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19.2 points against an average defense). Marshall's middle-of-the-pack offense (80th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.2 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Middle Tennessee's struggling defense (133rd); that mismatch is where most of Marshall's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Middle Tennessee by 15 and Marshall by 30 about 80% of the time.
Marshall gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Marshall by about 5.7. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Middle Tennessee 26, Marshall 28. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 5.8 points and the total by 0.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, Action Network, ESPN · Updated Oct 30, 10:26 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Middle Tennessee / Marshall) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Marshall -15.75 → Marshall -12.25 | 57.5 → 56 | +450 / -642.5 |
| Bovada | Marshall -14 → Marshall -13 | 57.5 → 55.5 | +500 / -750 |
| DraftKings | Marshall -17.5 → Marshall -11.5 | 57.5 → 56.5 | +400 / -535 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Marshall win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Marshall -8 | 54.7 | 70% |
| Market consensus | Marshall -12.5 | 56.0 | 82% |
| Blended projection | Marshall -11.5 | 56.3 | 78% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Marshall win probability
- model 70% · market (no-vig) 82% · difference -13 pts
- Margin
- model Marshall -7.8 · market Marshall -12.25 · difference -4.4 pts (Marshall view)
- Total
- model 54.7 · market 56 · difference -1.3
Model margin is 4.4 pts more toward Middle Tennessee than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Middle Tennessee 23.5, Marshall 31.3 | Marshall 70%right winner | 5.8 | 0.7 |
| New formula | Middle Tennessee 21.0, Marshall 37.1 | Marshall 84%right winner | 14.1 | 4.2 |
Final: Middle Tennessee 26, Marshall 28. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Middle Tennessee vs Marshall: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Middle Tennessee | Marshall |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.4#107 | 30.8#38 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.9#115 | 30.3#109 |
| Yards per play | 5.71#80 | 5.96#63 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.31#115 | 6.52#128 |
| Rushing yards per game | 124.2#122 | 201.1#27 |
| Net passing yards per game | 267.7#25 | 220.8#78 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 157.3#61 | 177.4#89 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 256.3#124 | 296.5#136 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.75#22 | 0.92#52 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.17#55 | 1.42#28 |
| Sacks per game | 1.67#95 | 2.33#37 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.67#117 | 1.42#33 |
| Stat | Middle Tennessee | Marshall |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01#84 | +0.03#66 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07#107 | -0.01#54 |
| Success rate | 42.7%#59 | 45.1%#42 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.4%#104 | 38.3%#28 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.1%#107 | 13.7%#33 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.3%#102 | 13.6%#113 |
| Havoc rate | 13.9%#29 | 13.9%#32 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.3%#100 | 11.3%#47 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.60#110 | 4.11#49 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.29#112 | 3.59#42 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#101 | own 33#13 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#66 | own 28#45 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.7#43 | 70.8#21 |
| Stat | Middle Tennessee | Marshall |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.03#97 | -0.01#92 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03#71 | +0.11#40 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.07#21 | -0.12#11 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.22#129 | +0.10#102 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.8%#54 | 43.5%#64 |
| Passing success rate | 42.0%#57 | 47.0%#17 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.9%#109 | 16.8%#45 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.9%#66 | 31.0%#62 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.9%#97 | 28.4%#52 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.1%#99 | 36.1%#110 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.3%#65 | 41.4%#81 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.8%#92 | 52.9%#110 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.0%#108 | 53.8%#28 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Middle Tennessee schedule · Marshall schedule · all Week 2 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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