2026 schedule
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
2026 season so far
Middle Tennessee is 4-4 against the 125th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 23.9 and allowing 29.6 points per game (-5.7 per game).
In our opponent-adjusted ratings Middle Tennessee ranks 131st of 139 FBS teams overall — 124th on offense and 131st on defense. The offense carries this team more than the defense does.
Next up: vs Western Kentucky in Week 10. We project Middle Tennessee 24, Western Kentucky 29 — Middle Tennessee wins 39% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
Murray State Racers
0-2 · SOS #15
Win 38-14
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Middle Tennessee by 28.6
Total 56
DraftKings
MTSU -22.5
Total 55.5
Final Middle Tennessee by 24. Middle Tennessee beat the spread. 52 points — under the 55.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Middle Tennessee -22.5 (open Middle Tennessee -20.75) · O/U 55.75 (open 58.5) · ML +925 / -1800 · Middle Tennessee 91% no-vig · model vs market +6.1 pts, +6 pct pts (Middle Tennessee view)
ESPN+ Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium - at
Marshall Thundering Herd
1-1 · SOS #106
Loss 26-28
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Marshall by 7.8
Total 54.8
DraftKings
MRSH -11.5
Total 56.5
Final Marshall by 2. Middle Tennessee beat the spread. 54 points — under the 56.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Marshall -12.25 (open Marshall -15.75) · O/U 56 (open 57.5) · ML +450 / -642.5 · Marshall 82% no-vig · model vs market -4.4 pts, -13 pct pts (Marshall view)
ESPN+ Joan C. Edwards Stadium - vs
Nevada Wolf Pack
1-2 · SOS #112
Win 27-20
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Middle Tennessee by 2.2
Total 49.8
DraftKings
NEV -3.5
Total 50.5
Final Middle Tennessee by 7. Middle Tennessee beat the spread. 47 points — under the 50.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Nevada -3.75 (open Nevada -6) · O/U 50.5 (open 50.25) · ML -200 / +165 · Middle Tennessee 36% no-vig · model vs market +5.9 pts, +20 pct pts (Middle Tennessee view)
ESPN+ Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium - at
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
3-2 · SOS #119
Loss 13-23
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Jacksonville State by 14.3
Total 55.3
DraftKings
JXST -7
Total 50.5
Final Jacksonville State by 10. Jacksonville State beat the spread. 36 points — under the 50.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Jacksonville State -7 (open Jacksonville State -9) · O/U 51 (open 53.25) · ML +250 / -312.5 · Jacksonville State 73% no-vig · model vs market +7.3 pts, +10 pct pts (Jacksonville State view)
ESPN+ AmFirst Stadium - at
Kansas Jayhawks
2-2 · SOS #62
Loss 0-55
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Kansas by 16.7
Total 52.1
DraftKings
KU -21.5
Total 51.5
Final Kansas by 55. Kansas beat the spread. 55 points — over the 51.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Kansas -21 (open Kansas -20.75) · O/U 51 (open 51.5) · ML +825 / -1500 · Kansas 90% no-vig · model vs market -4.3 pts, -3 pct pts (Kansas view)
ESPNU David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium - vs
Delaware Blue Hens
2-4 · SOS #116
Win 33-30
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Delaware by 3.9
Total 52.3
DraftKings
DEL -1.5
Total 49.5
Final Middle Tennessee by 3. Middle Tennessee beat the spread. 63 points — over the 49.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Delaware -1.25 (open Delaware -2) · O/U 49.5 (open 48.25) · ML -127.5 / +107.5 · Middle Tennessee 46% no-vig · model vs market -2.7 pts, -6 pct pts (Middle Tennessee view)
CBSSN Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium - at
Florida International Panthers
3-4 · SOS #137
Win 26-23
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Florida International by 12.5
Total 44.7
DraftKings
FIU -10.5
Total 46.5
Final Middle Tennessee by 3. Middle Tennessee beat the spread. 49 points — over the 46.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Florida International -10.5 · O/U 46.5 · ML +320 / -420 · Florida International 77% no-vig · model vs market +2.0 pts, +3 pct pts (Florida International view)
CBSSN Pitbull Stadium - vs
Kennesaw State Owls
2-6 · SOS #96
Loss 28-44
Week 9
Our number· pregame
Kennesaw State by 0.7
Total 48.7
DraftKings
KENN -1.5
Total 49.5
Final Kennesaw State by 16. Kennesaw State beat the spread. 72 points — over the 49.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Kennesaw State -1.5 · O/U 49.5 · ML -111 / -108 · Middle Tennessee 51% no-vig · model vs market +0.8 pts, -3 pct pts (Middle Tennessee view)
CBSSN Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium - vs
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
3-5 · SOS #89
Sat, Nov 7, 8:30 PM
Week 10
Proj 24-29 · 39%
Our number
Western Kentucky by 5
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium - at
Liberty Flames
6-1 · SOS #134
Sat, Nov 14, 8:30 PM
Week 11
Proj 14-36 · 7%
Our number
Liberty by 22
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
CBSSN Williams Stadium (VA) - at
Sam Houston Bearkats
1-7 · SOS #118
Sat, Nov 21, 7:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 23-24 · 49%
Our number
Sam Houston by 1
Total 47
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Elliott T. Bowers Stadium - vs
New Mexico State Aggies
3-5 · SOS #114
Sat, Nov 28, 7:00 PM
Week 13
Proj 24-26 · 44%
Our number
New Mexico State by 2
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
Times shown in your local time
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-17.6
130th in FBS
Adj. offense
18.4
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
36.0
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 23.9 | 100 / 138 |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 29.6 | 108 / 138 |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.00 | 67 / 138 |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.59 | 127 / 138 |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 140.6 | 109 / 138 |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 206.9 | 85 / 138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 204.1 | 126 / 138 |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 208.3 | 74 / 138 |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.29 | 10 / 138 |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.00 | 55 / 138 |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.14 | 124 / 138 |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.00 | 17 / 138 |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.05 | 88 / 138 |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.08 | 93 / 138 |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 41.5% | 91 / 138 |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 44.3% | 107 / 138 |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 12.5% | 72 / 138 |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 13.0% | 95 / 138 |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 10.8% | 131 / 138 |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 13.2% | 67 / 138 |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.79 | 94 / 138 |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 4.31 | 109 / 138 |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | own 28 | 109 / 138 |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | own 28 | 47 / 138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 57.9 | 133 / 138 |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.01 | 106 / 138 |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.08 | 74 / 138 |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.12 | 117 / 138 |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.03 | 62 / 138 |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 41.6% | 95 / 138 |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 40.7% | 81 / 138 |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 19.3% | 104 / 138 |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 31.3% | 69 / 138 |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 30.7% | 80 / 138 |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 27.8% | 137 / 138 |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 40.0% | 86 / 138 |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 60.2% | 79 / 138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 63.9% | 92 / 138 |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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