Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Florida International 28.6, Middle Tennessee 16.1 at Pitbull Stadium in Week 8. That is a solid edge: Florida International wins about 79% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 12.5 points and 44.6 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
Middle Tennessee is 3-3, scoring 22.8 and allowing 28.3 points per game (-5.5 per game). Florida International is 3-3, scoring 19.7 and allowing 14.7 points per game (+5 per game).
Florida International's middle-of-the-pack defense (60th) should limit Middle Tennessee's struggling offense (126th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 17.3 points against an average defense). Florida International's struggling offense (122nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.5 points against an average defense) meets Middle Tennessee's struggling defense (131st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Florida International puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Middle Tennessee by 10 and Florida International by 35 about 80% of the time.
Florida International gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Florida International by about 10.4. The game is on CBSSN.
Result: Middle Tennessee 26, Florida International 23. Middle Tennessee won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 15.5 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Middle Tennessee / Florida International) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Florida International -10.5 | 46.5 | +320 / -420 |
| Opening line | Florida International -9.5 | 45.5 | +290 / -385 |
| DraftKings | Florida International -10.5 | 46.5 | +320 / -410 |
| FanDuel | Florida International -10.5 | 46.5 | +310 / -400 |
| BetRivers | Florida International -10 | 45.5 | +300 / -400 |
| BetMGM | Florida International -10.5 | 46.5 | +333 / -425 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 24, 10:39 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Florida International win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Florida International -12.5 | 44.6 | 79% |
| Market consensus | Florida International -10.5 | 46.5 | 77% |
| Blended projection | Florida International -11 | 47.5 | 77% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Florida International win probability
- model 79% · market (no-vig) 77% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model Florida International -12.5 · market Florida International -10.5 · difference +2.0 pts (Florida International view)
- Total
- model 44.6 · market 46.5 · difference -1.9
Model margin is 2.0 pts more toward Florida International than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Middle Tennessee 16.1, Florida International 28.6 | Florida International 79%wrong winner | 15.5 | 4.4 |
| New formula | Middle Tennessee 15.5, Florida International 27.4 | Florida International 78%wrong winner | 14.9 | 6.1 |
Final: Middle Tennessee 26, Florida International 23. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Middle Tennessee vs Florida International: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Middle Tennessee | Florida International |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.8#104 | 19.7#122 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.3#110 | 14.7#11 |
| Yards per play | 5.85#85 | 5.43#115 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.78#129 | 4.59#8 |
| Rushing yards per game | 122.7#126 | 127.7#121 |
| Net passing yards per game | 208.0#91 | 259.0#40 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 210.2#129 | 112.7#21 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 220.5#92 | 159.7#14 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.33#17 | 1.17#116 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#54 | 1.17#36 |
| Sacks per game | 1.33#114 | 2.33#47 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.17#33 | 1.17#35 |
| Stat | Middle Tennessee | Florida International |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02#104 | -0.00#112 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09#100 | -0.07#20 |
| Success rate | 40.0%#106 | 40.0%#107 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.8%#113 | 36.6%#24 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.9%#93 | 12.3%#83 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.0%#98 | 11.4%#63 |
| Havoc rate | 10.9%#132 | 15.2%#40 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.6%#76 | 13.0%#63 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.80#93 | 3.00#130 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.34#106 | 2.97#9 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#120 | own 31#48 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#51 | own 32#122 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 56.5#137 | 71.2#14 |
| Stat | Middle Tennessee | Florida International |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01#101 | -0.07#126 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.01#105 | +0.07#82 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.11#113 | -0.04#30 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07#81 | -0.09#23 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.3%#105 | 36.1%#132 |
| Passing success rate | 40.2%#89 | 42.3%#72 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.2%#101 | 19.3%#103 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.5%#93 | 31.3%#73 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.2%#67 | 24.1%#13 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 28.8%#137 | 48.5%#26 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.8%#76 | 28.9%#6 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 66.2%#54 | 33.3%#138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.1%#85 | 33.8%#1 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Middle Tennessee schedule · Florida International schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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