2026 schedule

Florida International Panthers

3-4SOS #137

2026 season so far

Florida International is 3-4 against the 137th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.1 and allowing 16.3 points per game (+3.8 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings Florida International ranks 105th of 139 FBS teams overall — 126th on offense and 76th on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.

Next up: at Liberty in Week 9. We project Florida International 14, Liberty 27 — Florida International wins 19% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

at
South Florida Bulls
1-0 · SOS #133
Loss 9-19
Week 1
Our number· pregame
South Florida by 15.6
Total 61
DraftKings
USF -14.5
Total 53.5
Final South Florida by 10. Florida International beat the spread. 28 points — under the 53.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: South Florida -14.5 (open South Florida -12.5) · O/U 53.25 (open 54.5) · ML +405 / -555 · South Florida 81% no-vig · model vs market +1.1 pts, +4 pct pts (South Florida view)
ESPN+ Raymond James Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: missed
vs
Buffalo Bulls
1-1 · SOS #127
Win 33-20
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Florida International by 7.3
Total 49.3
DraftKings
FIU -8.5
Total 47.5
Final Florida International by 13. Florida International beat the spread. 53 points — over the 47.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Florida International -8.75 (open Florida International -10.25) · O/U 47.5 (open 50) · ML +292.5 / -380 · Florida International 76% no-vig · model vs market -1.4 pts, -7 pct pts (Florida International view)
ESPN+ Pitbull Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
at
Florida Atlantic Owls
2-1 · SOS #120
Loss 10-16
Week 3
Our number· pregame
dead even
Total 55.6
DraftKings
FAU -5.5
Total 62.5
Final Florida Atlantic by 6. Florida Atlantic beat the spread. 26 points — under the 62.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Florida Atlantic -5.25 (open Florida Atlantic -7.25) · O/U 62.25 (open 62.5) · ML +197.5 / -240 · Florida Atlantic 67% no-vig · model vs market -5.2 pts, -18 pct pts (Florida Atlantic view)
ESPN+ Flagler Credit Union Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed
Short home fav vs hot dogStudy · Moderate Favorite wins: Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: Record 194 hits, 68 misses (74% hit rate) over 262 graded gamesHome favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: hit (n=262) · Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game
vs
Long Island University Sharks
0-5 · SOS #59
Win 20-3
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Florida International by 27.4
Total 45
DraftKings
FIU -37.5
Total 54.5
Final Florida International by 17. Long Island University beat the spread. 23 points — under the 54.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Florida International -37.5 (open Florida International -35.5) · O/U 54.25 (open 51.75) · ML +1700 / -4500 · Florida International 95% no-vig · model vs market -10.1 pts, +2 pct pts (Florida International view)
Game-time weather: Mostly clear, 84°F, Wind 6 mph NNW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMIA)
ESPN+ Pitbull Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: missedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: hit
Blowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded gamesBlowout Alert: missed
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: missed (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
Blowout big fav vs low-total dog over2026 combo · Held up Over: Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: Record 69 hits, 37 misses (65% hit rate) over 106 graded gamesBig favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: missed (n=106; wk 5–7 13-1) · Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14
vs
New Mexico State Aggies
2-4 · SOS #114
Win 22-3
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Florida International by 5.5
Total 45.9
DraftKings
FIU -7
Total 46.5
Final Florida International by 19. Florida International beat the spread. 25 points — under the 46.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Florida International -7 (open Florida International -4.25) · O/U 46.75 (open 47) · ML +187.5 / -225 · Florida International 66% no-vig · model vs market -1.5 pts, -2 pct pts (Florida International view)
Game-time weather: Mostly clear, 79°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMIA)
ESPN2 Pitbull Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: hit
Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: missed
Short home fav vs hot dogStudy · Moderate Favorite wins: Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: Record 194 hits, 68 misses (74% hit rate) over 262 graded gamesHome favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: hit (n=262) · Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game
J. Jones RB · Low rush yds 74 (avg 102) · 72% · 89 ✓
at
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
5-2 · SOS #119
Loss 24-27
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Jacksonville State by 5.5
Total 45.7
DraftKings
JXST -3
Total 44.5
Final Jacksonville State by 3. The spread landed exactly on the number. 51 points — over the 44.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Jacksonville State -3 · O/U 44.25 (open 45.5) · ML +120 / -141 · Jacksonville State 56% no-vig · model vs market +2.5 pts, +8 pct pts (Jacksonville State view)
Kickoff forecast: Clear, 75°F, Wind calm, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 11, 8:43 AM EDT · last stored copy
ESPNU AmFirst Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missed
C. Creel QB · Low rush yds 50 (avg 68) · 72% · 95 ✗
vs
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
4-3 · SOS #125
Loss 23-26
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Florida International by 12.5
Total 44.7
DraftKings
FIU -10.5
Total 46.5
Final Middle Tennessee by 3. Middle Tennessee beat the spread. 49 points — over the 46.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Florida International -10.5 · O/U 46.5 · ML +320 / -420 · Florida International 77% no-vig · model vs market +2.0 pts, +3 pct pts (Florida International view)
Game-time weather: Mostly clear, 79°F, Wind 6 mph NNE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMIA)
CBSSN Pitbull Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missed
Unranked 3rd-down fav2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 53 hits, 6 misses (90% hit rate) over 59 graded gamesNeither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: missed (n=59; wk 5–7 26-3) · Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · A. Martin RB · Low rush yds 55 (avg 72) · 78% · 47 ✓
at
Liberty Flames
6-1 · SOS #134
Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM
Week 9
Proj 14-27 · 19%
Our number
Liberty by 13
Total 41
DraftKings
LIB -14
Total 45.5
We're 1 points higher on Florida International than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Liberty -14 · O/U 45.5 · ML +440 / -625 · Liberty 82% no-vig · model vs market -1.0 pts, -1 pct pts (Liberty view)
Kickoff forecast: Partly sunny, 63°F, Wind 5 mph E, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
CBSSN Williams Stadium (VA)
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Big home fav, modest total overStudy · Moderate Over: Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: Record 219 hits, 142 misses (61% hit rate) over 361 graded games (n=361) · Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5
On-the-number fav vs pass-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank: Record 27 hits, 1 misses (96% hit rate) over 28 graded games (n=28; wk 5–7 15-0) · Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank Bend-don't-break dog vs fast visitor over2026 combo · Held up Over: Away team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank: Record 25 hits, 4 misses (86% hit rate) over 29 graded games (n=29; wk 5–7 12-1) · Away team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank
Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · D. Lyons RB · Low rush yds 52 (avg 55) · 75%M. Anderson WR · Low rec yds 56 (avg 81) · 74%M. Jackson WR · Low rec yds 54 (avg 77) · 73%
vs
Missouri State Bears
3-5 · SOS #108
Sat, Nov 7, 9:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 27-20 · 67%
Our number
Florida International by 7
Total 47
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Pitbull Stadium
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
I. Myers WR · Low rec yds 89 (avg 125) · 73%H. Belin IV QB · High pass yds 168 (avg 153) · 60%
at
Delaware Blue Hens
4-4 · SOS #116
Sat, Nov 14, 8:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 24-26 · 43%
Our number
Delaware by 2
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Delaware Stadium
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games
at
Kennesaw State Owls
2-6 · SOS #96
Sat, Nov 21, 8:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 21-22 · 49%
Our number
Kennesaw State by 1
Total 43
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Walens Family Field at Fifth Third Stadium
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
vs
Sam Houston Bearkats
1-7 · SOS #118
Sat, Nov 28, 7:00 PM
Week 13
Proj 25-13 · 78%
Our number
Florida International by 12
Total 38
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Pitbull Stadium
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · A. McCaskill RB · Low rush yds 24 (avg 29) · 77%Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · M. Dowdy RB · Low rush yds 31 (avg 29) · 77%T. Burns Jr. WR · Low rec yds 39 (avg 56) · 75%

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Florida International Panthers stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

-9.1

104th in FBS

Adj. offense

18.1

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

27.2

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	20.1	122 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	16.3	21 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	5.42	115 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	4.93	21 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	133.4	115 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	241.3	50 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	132.0	40 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	165.4	15 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	1.14	111 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	1.00	61 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	2.00	73 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	1.00	21 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	-0.03	124 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	-0.05	27 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	39.5%	115 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	38.1%	33 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	12.0%	88 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	12.0%	77 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	15.0%	44 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	13.0%	61 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	2.95	132 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	2.93	6 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 31	52 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 32	123 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	69.1	35 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	-0.07	126 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	+0.03	95 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	-0.03	40 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	-0.06	33 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	37.6%	124 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	41.6%	68 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	19.1%	102 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	32.2%	57 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	26.1%	27 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	48.2%	23 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	28.1%	3 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	36.0%	137 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	27.8%	1 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

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