Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Florida International 28.3, Buffalo 21 at Pitbull Stadium in Week 2. That is a solid edge: Florida International wins about 68% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.3 points and 49.3 combined points.
Buffalo is 1-0, scoring 21 and allowing 17 points per game (+4 per game). Florida International is 0-1, scoring 9 and allowing 19 points per game (-10 per game).
Expect Buffalo to find it hard going: Florida International's below-average defense (84th) outranks Buffalo's struggling offense (132nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.9 points against an average defense). Florida International's below-average offense (116th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.9 points against an average defense) meets Buffalo's struggling defense (125th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Florida International puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Buffalo by 15 and Florida International by 30 about 80% of the time.
Florida International gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Florida International by about 5.2. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Buffalo 20, Florida International 33. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 5.7 points and the total by 3.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Buffalo / Florida International) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Florida International -10.25 → Florida International -8.75 | 50 → 47.5 | +292.5 / -380 |
| DraftKings | Florida International -10.5 → Florida International -8.5 | 51.5 → 47.5 | +275 / -345 |
| Bovada | Florida International -10 → Florida International -9 | 48.5 → 47.5 | +310 / -415 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Florida International win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Florida International -7.5 | 49.3 | 68% |
| Market consensus | Florida International -9 | 47.5 | 76% |
| Blended projection | Florida International -8.5 | 48.6 | 72% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Florida International win probability
- model 68% · market (no-vig) 76% · difference -7 pts
- Margin
- model Florida International -7.3 · market Florida International -8.75 · difference -1.5 pts (Florida International view)
- Total
- model 49.3 · market 47.5 · difference +1.8
Model margin is 1.5 pts more toward Buffalo than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Buffalo 21.0, Florida International 28.3 | Florida International 68%right winner | 5.7 | 3.7 |
| New formula | Buffalo 17.5, Florida International 31.7 | Florida International 80%right winner | 1.2 | 3.8 |
Final: Buffalo 20, Florida International 33. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Buffalo vs Florida International: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Buffalo | Florida International |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.0#93 | 28.5#61 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.5#54 | 30.0#105 |
| Yards per play | 5.43#107 | 5.62#90 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.19#25 | 6.23#109 |
| Rushing yards per game | 144.8#100 | 187.8#41 |
| Net passing yards per game | 229.1#61 | 202.7#94 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 170.4#82 | 176.8#88 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 186.3#24 | 250.8#121 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.67#131 | 1.31#108 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75#114 | 1.31#36 |
| Sacks per game | 2.75#12 | 2.31#42 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.08#92 | 1.69#61 |
| Stat | Buffalo | Florida International |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.10#124 | -0.02#101 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.00#60 | -0.01#52 |
| Success rate | 37.7%#121 | 39.9%#104 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.8%#61 | 41.6%#69 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.2%#106 | 11.5%#97 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.5%#13 | 14.0%#117 |
| Havoc rate | 13.5%#45 | 12.6%#66 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.8%#121 | 13.3%#101 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.55#115 | 3.79#89 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.52#34 | 3.88#70 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#37 | own 31#39 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#68 | own 32#126 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.8#42 | 69.5#34 |
| Stat | Buffalo | Florida International |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.10#127 | +0.02#72 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.11#118 | -0.06#104 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.00#66 | +0.02#78 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01#64 | -0.04#49 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.8%#104 | 39.0%#108 |
| Passing success rate | 37.5%#106 | 42.0%#58 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.0%#64 | 22.6%#127 |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.7%#119 | 27.7%#98 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.5%#71 | 28.6%#55 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.9%#101 | 36.3%#109 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.3%#48 | 40.0%#61 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 46.9%#125 | 57.5%#95 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 59.3%#64 | 61.2%#75 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Buffalo schedule · Florida International schedule · all Week 2 projections
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