2026 schedule
Buffalo Bulls
2026 season so far
Buffalo is 5-3 against the 127th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 22.6 and allowing 25.4 points per game (-2.8 per game).
In our opponent-adjusted ratings Buffalo ranks 126th of 139 FBS teams overall — 122nd on offense and 119th on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.
Next up: at Miami (OH) in Week 10. We project Buffalo 21, Miami (OH) 29 — Buffalo wins 29% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
UAlbany Great Danes
1-1 · SOS #106
Win 21-17
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Buffalo by 32
Total 50.6
DraftKings
BUFF -18.5
Total 47.5
Final Buffalo by 4. UAlbany beat the spread. 38 points — under the 47.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Buffalo -18.5 (open Buffalo -24.5) · O/U 47.5 (open 48.5) · ML +650 / -1000 · Buffalo 87% no-vig · model vs market +13.5 pts, +11 pct pts (Buffalo view)
ESPN+ Broadview Stadium - at
Florida International Panthers
1-1 · SOS #137
Loss 20-33
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Florida International by 7.3
Total 49.3
DraftKings
FIU -8.5
Total 47.5
Final Florida International by 13. Florida International beat the spread. 53 points — over the 47.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Florida International -8.75 (open Florida International -10.25) · O/U 47.5 (open 50) · ML +292.5 / -380 · Florida International 76% no-vig · model vs market -1.4 pts, -7 pct pts (Florida International view)
ESPN+ Pitbull Stadium - at
#14 Penn State Nittany Lions
3-0 · SOS #46
Loss 13-55
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Penn State by 16.2
Total 49.2
DraftKings
PSU -39.5
Total 48.5
Final Penn State by 42. Penn State beat the spread. 68 points — over the 48.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Penn State -39.75 (open Penn State -39) · O/U 48.25 (open 48) · model vs market -23.5 pts (Penn State view)
BTN Beaver Stadium - vs
Robert Morris Colonials
2-2 · SOS #143
Win 31-28
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Buffalo by 15.6
Total 49.2
DraftKings
BUFF -27.5
Total 46.5
Final Buffalo by 3. Robert Morris beat the spread. 59 points — over the 46.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Buffalo -27.75 (open Buffalo -28.5) · O/U 46.25 (open 45.25) · ML +1400 / -3200 · Buffalo 94% no-vig · model vs market -12.2 pts, -9 pct pts (Buffalo view)
ESPN+ Broadview Stadium - vs
Western Michigan Broncos
3-2 · SOS #91
Loss 17-20
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Western Michigan by 14
Total 51.2
DraftKings
WMU -13.5
Total 46.5
Final Western Michigan by 3. Buffalo beat the spread. 37 points — under the 46.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Western Michigan -13.25 (open Western Michigan -15.75) · O/U 46.25 (open 50) · ML -592.5 / +425 · Buffalo 18% no-vig · model vs market -0.7 pts, -0 pct pts (Buffalo view)
ESPN+ Broadview Stadium - at
Toledo Rockets
4-2 · SOS #122
Win 23-8
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Toledo by 19.8
Total 59
DraftKings
TOL -18.5
Total 54.5
Final Buffalo by 15. Buffalo beat the spread. 31 points — under the 54.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Toledo -18.75 (open Toledo -20) · O/U 55 (open 54.75) · ML +700 / -1150 · Toledo 88% no-vig · model vs market +1.0 pts, +2 pct pts (Toledo view)
ESPN+ Glass Bowl - vs
Massachusetts Minutemen
4-3 · SOS #138
Win 25-18
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Buffalo by 4.8
Total 49.8
DraftKings
BUFF -6.5
Total 43.5
Final Buffalo by 7. Buffalo beat the spread. 43 points — under the 43.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Buffalo -6.75 (open Buffalo -3.25) · O/U 43 (open 46.25) · ML +170 / -205 · Buffalo 64% no-vig · model vs market -1.9 pts, -2 pct pts (Buffalo view)
ESPN+ Broadview Stadium - vs
Bowling Green Falcons
2-6 · SOS #92
Win 31-24
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Buffalo by 3.5
Total 45.9
DraftKings
BUFF -3
Total 44.5
Final Buffalo by 7. Buffalo beat the spread. 55 points — over the 44.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Buffalo -3 · O/U 44.5 · ML +125 / -153 · Buffalo 58% no-vig · model vs market +0.5 pts, +1 pct pts (Buffalo view)
ESPN+ Broadview Stadium - at
Miami (OH) RedHawks
5-3 · SOS #117
Wed, Nov 4, 1:00 AM
Week 10
Proj 21-29 · 29%
Our number
Miami (OH) by 8
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN Yager Stadium - at
Ball State Cardinals
3-5 · SOS #85
Wed, Nov 11 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 28-26 · 54%
Our number
Buffalo by 2
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Scheumann Stadium - vs
Central Michigan Chippewas
3-5 · SOS #71
Wed, Nov 18 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 25-24 · 52%
Our number
Buffalo by 1
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Broadview Stadium - at
Akron Zips
1-7 · SOS #109
Fri, Nov 27, 5:00 PM
Week 13
Proj 27-25 · 57%
Our number
Buffalo by 2
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
InfoCision Stadium
Times shown in your local time
Buffalo Bulls stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-13.8
125th in FBS
Adj. offense
18.7
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
32.5
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 22.6 | 107 / 138 |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 25.4 | 84 / 138 |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 4.68 | 137 / 138 |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.89 | 85 / 138 |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 191.6 | 42 / 138 |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 149.0 | 130 / 138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 160.0 | 81 / 138 |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 226.4 | 99 / 138 |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.13 | 100 / 138 |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.50 | 122 / 138 |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.50 | 107 / 138 |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 2.38 | 105 / 138 |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | -0.04 | 127 / 138 |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.07 | 81 / 138 |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 36.9% | 131 / 138 |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 39.8% | 54 / 138 |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 9.4% | 133 / 138 |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 12.1% | 80 / 138 |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 13.4% | 84 / 138 |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 13.3% | 72 / 138 |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.71 | 100 / 138 |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.84 | 73 / 138 |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | own 30 | 58 / 138 |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | own 29 | 79 / 138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 72.8 | 8 / 138 |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.01 | 107 / 138 |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | -0.10 | 127 / 138 |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.03 | 68 / 138 |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.10 | 89 / 138 |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 37.7% | 120 / 138 |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 34.0% | 130 / 138 |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 16.1% | 53 / 138 |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 24.4% | 129 / 138 |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 24.6% | 12 / 138 |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 39.6% | 87 / 138 |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 36.0% | 42 / 138 |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 48.3% | 124 / 138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 66.5% | 99 / 138 |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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