Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Buffalo 27.3, Massachusetts 22.5 at Broadview Stadium in Week 7. That is a lean: Buffalo wins about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.7 points and 49.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Massachusetts is 4-2, scoring 29.7 and allowing 18.2 points per game (+11.5 per game). Buffalo is 3-3, scoring 20.8 and allowing 26.8 points per game (-6 per game).
Massachusetts's struggling offense (130th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 17.3 points against an average defense) meets Buffalo's struggling defense (121st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Massachusetts puts up. Buffalo's struggling offense (120th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.7 points against an average defense) meets Massachusetts's struggling defense (124th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Buffalo puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Massachusetts by 18 and Buffalo by 27 about 80% of the time.
Buffalo gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Buffalo by about 2.6. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Massachusetts 18, Buffalo 25. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 2.3 points and the total by 6.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Massachusetts / Buffalo) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Buffalo -3.25 → Buffalo -6.75 | 46.25 → 43 | +170 / -205 |
| DraftKings | Buffalo -3.5 → Buffalo -6.5 | 47.5 → 43.5 | +205 / -250 |
| Bovada | Buffalo -3 → Buffalo -7 | 45 → 42.5 | +135 / -160 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Buffalo win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Buffalo -4.5 | 49.8 | 62% |
| Market consensus | Buffalo -7 | 43.0 | 64% |
| Blended projection | Buffalo -6.5 | 44.7 | 67% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Buffalo win probability
- model 62% · market (no-vig) 64% · difference -2 pts
- Margin
- model Buffalo -4.7 · market Buffalo -6.75 · difference -2.0 pts (Buffalo view)
- Total
- model 49.8 · market 43 · difference +6.8
Model margin is 2.0 pts more toward Massachusetts than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Massachusetts 22.5, Buffalo 27.3 | Buffalo 62%right winner | 2.3 | 6.8 |
| New formula | Massachusetts 23.2, Buffalo 27.3 | Buffalo 61%right winner | 2.9 | 7.6 |
Final: Massachusetts 18, Buffalo 25. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Massachusetts vs Buffalo: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Massachusetts | Buffalo |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.7#68 | 20.8#115 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.2#31 | 26.8#99 |
| Yards per play | 6.33#55 | 4.46#137 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.86#22 | 6.14#106 |
| Rushing yards per game | 165.5#73 | 173.8#65 |
| Net passing yards per game | 180.7#111 | 155.0#128 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 122.2#32 | 156.3#70 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 190.3#49 | 242.8#116 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.33#22 | 1.17#100 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.50#17 | 0.17#137 |
| Sacks per game | 2.17#59 | 1.17#121 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.17#34 | 2.67#121 |
| Stat | Massachusetts | Buffalo |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.09#74 | -0.09#131 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.06#23 | +0.06#83 |
| Success rate | 42.5%#78 | 35.3%#130 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.9%#57 | 37.8%#36 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.9%#67 | 8.7%#135 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.2%#34 | 12.3%#87 |
| Havoc rate | 14.4%#60 | 12.6%#98 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.2%#50 | 13.4%#76 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.13#67 | 3.84#93 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.92#78 | 3.86#74 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#29 | own 28#103 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#58 | own 29#77 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 54.7#137 | 73.7#8 |
| Stat | Massachusetts | Buffalo |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04#95 | -0.02#110 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.13#61 | -0.16#129 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07#88 | +0.00#55 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.18#11 | +0.11#95 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.2%#64 | 36.2%#122 |
| Passing success rate | 44.2%#53 | 33.3%#126 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.4%#76 | 17.0%#68 |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.0%#47 | 22.1%#132 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.0%#66 | 23.1%#14 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.9%#97 | 36.8%#103 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.7%#61 | 33.7%#33 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 60.3%#87 | 50.0%#122 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.9%#91 | 68.7%#110 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Massachusetts schedule · Buffalo schedule · all Week 7 projections
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