2026 schedule
Massachusetts Minutemen
2026 season so far
Massachusetts is 4-4 against the 138th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.5 and allowing 21.1 points per game (+5.4 per game).
In our opponent-adjusted ratings Massachusetts ranks 129th of 139 FBS teams overall — 132nd on offense and 124th on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.
Next up: vs Ball State in Week 10. We project Massachusetts 28, Ball State 25 — Massachusetts wins 58% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 games- at
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
0-1 · SOS #51
Win 37-21
Week 1
Our number· model now
Rutgers by 15
Total 57
Book line
Not posted
Final Massachusetts by 16. 58 points. No book line was saved for this game.
BTN SHI Stadium - vs
Sacred Heart Pioneers
0-2 · SOS #149
Win 37-10
Week 2
Our number· model now
Massachusetts by 13
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
Final Massachusetts by 27. 47 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium - vs
Stonehill Skyhawks
1-3 · SOS #114
Win 36-14
Week 3
Our number· model now
Massachusetts by 13
Total 45
Book line
Not posted
Final Massachusetts by 22. 50 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium - at
Sacramento State Hornets
1-4 · SOS #136
Win 35-6
Week 4
Our number· model now
Massachusetts by 7
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
Final Massachusetts by 29. 41 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 6 mph SW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSAC)ESPN+ Hornet Stadium - vs
Eastern Michigan Eagles
3-3 · SOS #131
Loss 14-38
Week 5
Our number· model now
Eastern Michigan by 3
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
Final Eastern Michigan by 24. 52 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Mostly clear, 66°F, Wind 3 mph ENE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KCEF)ESPN+ Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium - vs
Miami (OH) RedHawks
3-3 · SOS #117
Loss 19-20
Week 6
Our number· model now
Miami (OH) by 7
Total 47
Book line
Not posted
Final Miami (OH) by 1. 39 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Mostly cloudy, 64°F, Wind 5 mph SSW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KCEF)ESPN+ Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium - at
Buffalo Bulls
4-3 · SOS #127
Loss 18-25
Week 7
Our number· model now
Buffalo by 5
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
Final Buffalo by 7. 43 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 46°F, Wind 7 mph NW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBUF)ESPN+ Broadview Stadium - at
UConn Huskies
4-3 · SOS #132
Loss 16-35
Week 8
Our number· model now
UConn by 14
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
Final UConn by 19. 51 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 43°F, Wind 3 mph SE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KHFD)CBSSN Pratt & Whitney Stadium - vs
Ball State Cardinals
3-5 · SOS #85
Thu, Nov 5, 12:00 AM
Week 10
Proj 28-25 · 58%
Our number
Massachusetts by 3
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Intermittent clouds, 54°F.Kickoff forecast · ESPN, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDTESPNU Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium - at
Toledo Rockets
6-2 · SOS #122
Wed, Nov 11 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 18-37 · 11%
Our number
Toledo by 19
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Glass Bowl - vs
Akron Zips
1-7 · SOS #109
Wed, Nov 18 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 28-24 · 61%
Our number
Massachusetts by 4
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium - at
Bowling Green Falcons
2-6 · SOS #92
Sat, Nov 28, 5:00 PM
Week 13
Proj 20-23 · 40%
Our number
Bowling Green by 3
Total 43
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Times shown in your local time
Massachusetts Minutemen stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-16.4
128th in FBS
Adj. offense
17.0
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
33.5
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 26.5 | 87 / 138 |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 21.1 | 49 / 138 |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.88 | 81 / 138 |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.06 | 30 / 138 |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 157.8 | 87 / 138 |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 184.0 | 112 / 138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 155.1 | 70 / 138 |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 178.8 | 26 / 138 |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.38 | 14 / 138 |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.25 | 31 / 138 |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.50 | 35 / 138 |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.50 | 50 / 138 |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.06 | 86 / 138 |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | -0.05 | 29 / 138 |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 41.8% | 86 / 138 |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 39.7% | 51 / 138 |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 12.0% | 89 / 138 |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 10.6% | 37 / 138 |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 15.3% | 38 / 138 |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 12.5% | 50 / 138 |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.02 | 80 / 138 |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.69 | 54 / 138 |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | own 31 | 49 / 138 |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | own 30 | 99 / 138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 58.1 | 131 / 138 |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.05 | 85 / 138 |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.04 | 87 / 138 |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.04 | 71 / 138 |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | -0.15 | 12 / 138 |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 43.5% | 78 / 138 |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 40.0% | 88 / 138 |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 15.8% | 46 / 138 |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 29.7% | 98 / 138 |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 26.0% | 26 / 138 |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 33.3% | 123 / 138 |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 37.6% | 57 / 138 |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 58.5% | 89 / 138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 62.4% | 84 / 138 |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.