Matchup analysis
Our model projects Massachusetts 28, Ball State 25 at Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium in Week 10. That is a genuine toss-up: Massachusetts wins about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3 points and 53.3 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Ball State is 3-5 against the 85th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 22 and allowing 35.3 points per game (-13.3 per game). Massachusetts is 4-4 against the 138th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.5 and allowing 21.1 points per game (+5.4 per game).
Ball State's struggling offense (120th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19.4 points against an average defense) meets Massachusetts's struggling defense (124th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Ball State puts up. Massachusetts's struggling offense (132nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 17 points against an average defense) meets Ball State's struggling defense (133rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Massachusetts puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Ball State by 20 and Massachusetts by 26 about 80% of the time.
Massachusetts gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Massachusetts by about 0.9. The game is on ESPNU.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Ball State vs Massachusetts: stat comparison
| Stat | Ball State | Massachusetts |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.0#108 | 26.5#87 |
| Points allowed per game | 35.3#131 | 21.1#49 |
| Yards per play | 5.42#114 | 5.88#81 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.62#129 | 5.06#30 |
| Rushing yards per game | 148.0#100 | 157.8#87 |
| Net passing yards per game | 195.3#102 | 184.0#112 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 189.5#113 | 155.1#70 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 239.1#110 | 178.8#26 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#94 | 0.38#14 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.63#106 | 1.25#31 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75#92 | 2.50#35 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.75#65 | 1.50#50 |
| Stat | Ball State | Massachusetts |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.08#72 | +0.06#86 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11#106 | -0.05#29 |
| Success rate | 40.5%#103 | 41.8%#86 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.5%#86 | 39.7%#51 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.4%#126 | 12.0%#89 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.4%#105 | 10.6%#37 |
| Havoc rate | 13.8%#70 | 15.3%#38 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.4%#73 | 12.5%#50 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.17#61 | 4.02#80 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.72#129 | 3.69#54 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#110 | own 31#49 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#55 | own 30#99 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.4#93 | 58.1#131 |
| Stat | Ball State | Massachusetts |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.02#102 | +0.05#85 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.14#50 | +0.04#87 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01#59 | +0.04#71 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.22#121 | -0.15#12 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.4%#111 | 43.5%#78 |
| Passing success rate | 40.8%#80 | 40.0%#88 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.9%#113 | 15.8%#46 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.3%#85 | 29.7%#98 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.4%#120 | 26.0%#26 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.6%#111 | 33.3%#123 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.2%#119 | 37.6%#57 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 70.6%#32 | 58.5%#89 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 80.0%#134 | 62.4%#84 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Ball State schedule · Massachusetts schedule · all Week 10 projections
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