2026 schedule
Ball State Cardinals
2026 season so far
Ball State is 3-5 against the 85th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 22 and allowing 35.3 points per game (-13.3 per game).
In our opponent-adjusted ratings Ball State ranks 130th of 139 FBS teams overall — 120th on offense and 133rd on defense. The offense carries this team more than the defense does.
Next up: at Massachusetts in Week 10. We project Ball State 25, Massachusetts 28 — Ball State wins 42% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- at
#1 Ohio State Buckeyes
1-0 · SOS #19
Loss 3-56
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Ohio State by 27.5
Total 47.1
DraftKings
OSU -50.5
Total 55.5
Final Ohio State by 53. Ohio State beat the spread. 59 points — over the 55.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Ohio State -50.75 (open Ohio State -50) · O/U 56 (open 56.5) · model vs market -23.3 pts (Ohio State view)
BTN Ohio Stadium - vs
Stony Brook Seawolves
1-2 · SOS #137
Win 41-17
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Ball State by 24
Total 55.2
DraftKings
BALL -13.5
Total 52.5
Final Ball State by 24. Ball State beat the spread. 58 points — over the 52.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Ball State -13.5 (open Ball State -14.25) · O/U 52.75 (open 56) · ML +427.5 / -600 · Ball State 82% no-vig · model vs market +10.5 pts, +12 pct pts (Ball State view)
ESPN+ Scheumann Stadium - at
Liberty Flames
2-1 · SOS #134
Loss 15-51
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Liberty by 4.2
Total 46.8
DraftKings
LIB -14.5
Total 49.5
Final Liberty by 36. Liberty beat the spread. 66 points — over the 49.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Liberty -14.5 (open Liberty -14.25) · O/U 49.25 (open 53.25) · ML +450 / -637.5 · Liberty 83% no-vig · model vs market -10.3 pts, -22 pct pts (Liberty view)
ESPN+ Williams Stadium (VA) - at
Kent State Golden Flashes
2-2 · SOS #68
Loss 13-26
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Kent State by 1.5
Total 60.5
DraftKings
KENT -2.5
Total 51.5
Final Kent State by 13. Kent State beat the spread. 39 points — under the 51.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Kent State -2.5 (open Kent State -3.75) · O/U 51.5 (open 50.5) · ML +127 / -150 · Kent State 58% no-vig · model vs market -1.0 pts, -4 pct pts (Kent State view)
ESPN+ Zoeller Field at Dix Stadium - vs
Toledo Rockets
4-1 · SOS #122
Loss 24-39
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Toledo by 15.7
Total 58.1
DraftKings
TOL -20.5
Total 52.5
Final Toledo by 15. Ball State beat the spread. 63 points — over the 52.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Toledo -20.75 (open Toledo -18.5) · O/U 52.25 (open 51.5) · ML -1375 / +775 · Ball State 11% no-vig · model vs market +5.1 pts, +4 pct pts (Ball State view)
ESPN+ Scheumann Stadium - at
Northwestern Wildcats
4-1 · SOS #44
Loss 14-45
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Northwestern by 30.2
Total 52
DraftKings
NU -34.5
Total 53.5
Final Northwestern by 31. Ball State beat the spread. 59 points — over the 53.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Northwestern -34.75 (open Northwestern -36.25) · O/U 53.25 (open 52.75) · model vs market -4.5 pts (Northwestern view)
BTN Ryan Field - at
Bowling Green Falcons
2-5 · SOS #92
Win 32-31
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Bowling Green by 8.4
Total 49.2
DraftKings
BGSU -6
Total 46.5
Final Ball State by 1. Ball State beat the spread. 63 points — over the 46.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Bowling Green -6.25 (open Bowling Green -7.75) · O/U 46.5 (open 44.75) · ML +210 / -256.5 · Bowling Green 69% no-vig · model vs market +2.2 pts, +2 pct pts (Bowling Green view)
ESPN+ Doyt L. Perry Stadium - vs
Sacramento State Hornets
1-7 · SOS #136
Win 34-17
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Ball State by 9.5
Total 56.5
DraftKings
BALL -14.5
Total 51.5
Final Ball State by 17. Ball State beat the spread. 51 points — under the 51.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Ball State -14.5 · O/U 51.5 · ML +475 / -650 · Ball State 81% no-vig · model vs market -5.0 pts, -8 pct pts (Ball State view)
ESPN+ Scheumann Stadium - at
Massachusetts Minutemen
4-4 · SOS #138
Thu, Nov 5, 12:00 AM
Week 10
Proj 25-28 · 42%
Our number
Massachusetts by 3
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPNU Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium - vs
Buffalo Bulls
5-3 · SOS #127
Wed, Nov 11 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 26-28 · 46%
Our number
Buffalo by 2
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Scheumann Stadium - at
Ohio Bobcats
6-2 · SOS #135
Wed, Nov 18, 12:00 AM
Week 12
Proj 19-36 · 13%
Our number
Ohio by 17
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Peden Stadium - vs
Central Michigan Chippewas
3-5 · SOS #71
Sat, Nov 28, 5:00 PM
Week 13
Proj 24-27 · 43%
Our number
Central Michigan by 3
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Scheumann Stadium
Times shown in your local time
Ball State Cardinals stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-17.1
129th in FBS
Adj. offense
19.4
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
36.5
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 22.0 | 108 / 138 |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 35.3 | 131 / 138 |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.42 | 114 / 138 |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.62 | 129 / 138 |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 148.0 | 100 / 138 |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 195.3 | 102 / 138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 189.5 | 113 / 138 |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 239.1 | 110 / 138 |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.00 | 94 / 138 |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.63 | 106 / 138 |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.75 | 92 / 138 |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.75 | 65 / 138 |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.08 | 72 / 138 |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.11 | 106 / 138 |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 40.5% | 103 / 138 |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 42.5% | 86 / 138 |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 10.4% | 126 / 138 |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 13.4% | 105 / 138 |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 13.8% | 70 / 138 |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 13.4% | 73 / 138 |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.17 | 61 / 138 |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 4.72 | 129 / 138 |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | own 28 | 110 / 138 |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | own 28 | 55 / 138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 63.4 | 93 / 138 |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.02 | 102 / 138 |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.14 | 50 / 138 |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.01 | 59 / 138 |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.22 | 121 / 138 |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 39.4% | 111 / 138 |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 40.8% | 80 / 138 |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 19.9% | 113 / 138 |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 30.3% | 85 / 138 |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 34.4% | 120 / 138 |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 35.6% | 111 / 138 |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 44.2% | 119 / 138 |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 70.6% | 32 / 138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 80.0% | 134 / 138 |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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