Matchup analysis
Our model projects Ohio 36, Ball State 19 at Peden Stadium in Week 12. That is a heavy edge: Ohio wins about 87% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 16.9 points and 54.3 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Ball State is 3-5 against the 77th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 22 and allowing 35.3 points per game (-13.3 per game). Ohio is 6-2 against the 128th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 29.6 and allowing 21.9 points per game (+7.7 per game).
Ohio's middle-of-the-pack defense (72nd) should limit Ball State's struggling offense (120th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19.4 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Ohio's below-average offense (89th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.6 points against an average defense) against Ball State's struggling defense (133rd).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Ball State by 6 and Ohio by 39 about 80% of the time.
Ohio gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Ohio by about 14.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Ball State vs Ohio: stat comparison
| Stat | Ball State | Ohio |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.0#108 | 29.6#65 |
| Points allowed per game | 35.3#131 | 21.9#53 |
| Yards per play | 5.42#114 | 6.06#62 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.62#129 | 5.42#57 |
| Rushing yards per game | 148.0#100 | 203.1#29 |
| Net passing yards per game | 195.3#102 | 171.6#121 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 189.5#113 | 150.6#65 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 239.1#110 | 180.4#28 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#94 | 0.63#42 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.63#106 | 0.63#107 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75#92 | 2.00#76 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.75#65 | 1.75#66 |
| Stat | Ball State | Ohio |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.08#72 | +0.13#46 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11#106 | +0.01#51 |
| Success rate | 40.5%#103 | 46.1%#39 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.5%#86 | 39.9%#55 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.4%#126 | 13.0%#63 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.4%#105 | 11.0%#53 |
| Havoc rate | 13.8%#70 | 15.3%#37 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.4%#73 | 10.5%#17 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.17#61 | 4.18#59 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.72#129 | 3.81#69 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#110 | own 30#62 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#55 | own 29#85 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.4#93 | 61.9#110 |
| Stat | Ball State | Ohio |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.02#102 | +0.14#33 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.14#50 | +0.11#64 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01#59 | -0.01#43 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.22#121 | +0.05#75 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.4%#111 | 49.6%#15 |
| Passing success rate | 40.8%#80 | 45.0%#45 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.9%#113 | 14.5%#28 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.3%#85 | 32.3%#56 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.4%#120 | 30.8%#86 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.6%#111 | 53.0%#11 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.2%#119 | 38.5%#71 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 70.6%#32 | 74.6%#14 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 80.0%#134 | 52.4%#39 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Ball State schedule · Ohio schedule · all Week 12 projections
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