2026 schedule

Ohio Bobcats

6-2SOS #135

2026 season so far

Ohio is 6-2 against the 135th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 29.6 and allowing 21.9 points per game (+7.7 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings Ohio ranks 79th of 139 FBS teams overall — 89th on offense and 72nd on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.

Next up: at Akron in Week 10. We project Ohio 33, Akron 19 — Ohio wins 83% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

at
Nebraska Cornhuskers
1-0 · SOS #31
Loss 21-49
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Nebraska by 4.6
Total 53.8
DraftKings
NEB -23.5
Total 47.5
Final Nebraska by 28. Nebraska beat the spread. 70 points — over the 47.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Nebraska -23.75 (open Nebraska -23.5) · O/U 47 (open 47.5) · ML +1100 / -2450 · Nebraska 92% no-vig · model vs market -19.2 pts, -30 pct pts (Nebraska view)
FS1 Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: hit (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14 Big home fav, modest total overStudy · Moderate Over: Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: Record 219 hits, 142 misses (61% hit rate) over 361 graded gamesHome favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: hit (n=361) · Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5
vs
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
1-2 · SOS #119
Win 29-27
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Ohio by 7.3
Total 50.3
DraftKings
OHIO -1.5
Total 48.5
Final Ohio by 2. Ohio beat the spread. 56 points — over the 48.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Ohio -1.75 (open Ohio -2.25) · O/U 49.25 (open 50) · ML +105 / -125 · Ohio 53% no-vig · model vs market +5.6 pts, +15 pct pts (Ohio view)
ESPN+ Peden Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Short dog vs leaky reeling favShort dog · fav lost, weak D · 2014–25 Underdog getting 2.5 or less, favorite lost its last game and has a bottom-third defense: Record 155 hits, 114 misses (58% hit rate) over 269 graded games · 2026: 9-10Short dog · fav lost, weak D: missed Short dog vs reeling favShort dog · fav off loss · 2014–25 Underdog getting 2.5 or less, favorite lost its last game: Record 265 hits, 223 misses (54% hit rate) over 488 graded games · 2026: 11-13Short dog · fav off loss: missed
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South Alabama Jaguars
2-1 · SOS #103
Loss 36-41
Week 3
Our number· pregame
South Alabama by 5.6
Total 56
DraftKings
USA -7
Total 49.5
Final South Alabama by 5. Ohio beat the spread. 77 points — over the 49.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: South Alabama -7 (open South Alabama -3.75) · O/U 49.75 (open 53) · ML +190 / -227.5 · South Alabama 66% no-vig · model vs market -1.4 pts, -2 pct pts (South Alabama view)
ESPN+ Hancock Whitney Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Short home fav vs hot dogStudy · Moderate Favorite wins: Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: Record 194 hits, 68 misses (74% hit rate) over 262 graded gamesHome favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: hit (n=262) · Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game
vs
Stonehill Skyhawks
1-4 · SOS #114
Win 35-7
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Ohio by 28
Total 51.6
DraftKings
OHIO -32.5
Total 53.5
Final Ohio by 28. Stonehill beat the spread. 42 points — under the 53.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Ohio -32.5 (open Ohio -34.25) · O/U 53.5 (open 51.75) · ML +1800 / -5000 · Ohio 95% no-vig · model vs market -4.5 pts, +2 pct pts (Ohio view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 71°F, Wind 8 mph NW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KUNI)
ESPN+ Peden Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hit
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: missed (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
Blowout big fav vs low-total dog over2026 combo · Held up Over: Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: Record 69 hits, 37 misses (65% hit rate) over 106 graded gamesBig favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: missed (n=106; wk 5–7 13-1) · Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14
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Kent State Golden Flashes
2-3 · SOS #68
Win 13-10
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Ohio by 11.7
Total 57.1
DraftKings
OHIO -3.5
Total 50.5
Final Ohio by 3. Kent State beat the spread. 23 points — under the 50.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Ohio -3.5 (open Ohio -5.5) · O/U 50.75 (open 51.5) · ML -192.5 / +160 · Kent State 37% no-vig · model vs market -8.2 pts, -15 pct pts (Kent State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 64°F, Wind 6 mph ENE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KAKR)
ESPN+ Zoeller Field at Dix Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hit
vs
Central Michigan Chippewas
3-3 · SOS #71
Win 31-14
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Ohio by 7.3
Total 48.1
DraftKings
OHIO -2.5
Total 45.5
Final Ohio by 17. Ohio beat the spread. 45 points — under the 45.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Ohio -2.5 (open Ohio -3.25) · O/U 45.75 (open 46.75) · ML +132 / -155 · Ohio 58% no-vig · model vs market +4.8 pts, +10 pct pts (Ohio view)
Game-time weather: Light rain and fog/mist, 61°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KUNI)
ESPN+ Peden Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hit
Flip-flop totals underStudy · Lean Under: Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: Record 307 hits, 231 misses (57% hit rate) over 538 graded gamesUnderdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: hit (n=538) · Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over
A. Flores QB · Low rush yds 75 (avg 95) · 70% · 27 ✓
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Sacramento State Hornets
1-6 · SOS #136
Win 48-7
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Ohio by 13.6
Total 50.8
DraftKings
OHIO -17.5
Total 46.5
Final Ohio by 41. Ohio beat the spread. 55 points — over the 46.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Ohio -16.5 (open Ohio -14) · O/U 46.5 (open 49.5) · ML -800 / +537.5 · Sacramento State 15% no-vig · model vs market +2.9 pts, +3 pct pts (Sacramento State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 70°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSAC)
ESPN+ Hornet Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: missed
On-the-number fav vs pass-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank: Record 27 hits, 1 misses (96% hit rate) over 28 graded gamesOur margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank: hit (n=28; wk 5–7 15-0) · Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank 3rd-down fav vs red-zone-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 38 hits, 1 misses (97% hit rate) over 39 graded gamesUnderdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: hit (n=39; wk 5–7 21-1) · Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats
N. Poulos QB · Low rush yds 38 (avg 44) · 68% · 48 ✗
vs
Eastern Michigan Eagles
4-5 · SOS #131
Win 24-20
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Ohio by 13.4
Total 52
DraftKings
OHIO -11.5
Total 48.5
Final Ohio by 4. Eastern Michigan beat the spread. 44 points — under the 48.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Ohio -11.5 · O/U 48.5 · ML +365 / -490 · Ohio 78% no-vig · model vs market +1.9 pts, +3 pct pts (Ohio view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 67°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KUNI)
ESPNU Peden Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Unranked 3rd-down fav2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 53 hits, 6 misses (90% hit rate) over 59 graded gamesNeither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: hit (n=59; wk 5–7 26-3) · Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats Stuff-proof ball-secure fav vs havoc-prone dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite covers: Underdog havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite run stuff rate (least): top-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): top-third FBS rank: Record 28 hits, 5 misses (85% hit rate) over 33 graded gamesUnderdog havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite run stuff rate (least): top-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): top-third FBS rank: missed (n=33; wk 5–7 14-3) · Underdog havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite run stuff rate (least): top-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): top-third FBS rank
Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · A. Blue RB · Low rush yds 38 (avg 42) · 77% · 67 ✗Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · B. Bennett RB · Low rush yds 34 (avg 32) · 77% · 22 ✓Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · J. Mattord RB · Low rush yds 34 (avg 30) · 77% · 24 ✓
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Akron Zips
1-7 · SOS #109
Wed, Nov 4, 12:00 AM
Week 10
Proj 33-19 · 83%
Our number
Ohio by 14
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Slight chance rain showers, 62°F, Wind 8 mph SE, 19% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
ESPN2 InfoCision Stadium
Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games
Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · J. Gant RB · Low rush yds 84 (avg 77) · 77%N. Poulos QB · High pass yds 176 (avg 154) · 56%
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Miami (OH) RedHawks
5-3 · SOS #117
Wed, Nov 11, 12:00 AM
Week 11
Proj 26-23 · 58%
Our number
Ohio by 3
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Yager Stadium
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games
N. Poulos QB · Low rush yds 30 (avg 41) · 71%D. Brune RB · Low rush yds 45 (avg 59) · 69%V. Rosa RB · Low rush yds 34 (avg 46) · 69%
vs
Ball State Cardinals
3-5 · SOS #85
Wed, Nov 18, 12:00 AM
Week 12
Proj 36-19 · 87%
Our number
Ohio by 17
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Peden Stadium
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded games
Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · J. Bonds RB · Low rush yds 40 (avg 37) · 77%Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · T. Horton RB · Low rush yds 50 (avg 53) · 77%J. Smith WR · Low catches 4.2 (avg 5.3) · 65%
vs
Toledo Rockets
6-2 · SOS #122
Fri, Nov 27, 5:00 PM
Week 13
Proj 28-27 · 51%
Our number
Ohio by 1
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Peden Stadium
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games
Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games

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Ohio Bobcats stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

-2.4

78th in FBS

Adj. offense

24.6

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

26.9

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	29.6	65 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	21.9	53 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	6.06	62 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	5.42	57 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	203.1	29 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	171.6	121 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	150.6	65 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	180.4	28 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	0.63	42 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	0.63	107 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	2.00	76 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	1.75	66 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	+0.13	46 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	+0.01	51 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	46.1%	39 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	39.9%	55 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	13.0%	63 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	11.0%	53 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	15.3%	37 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	10.5%	17 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	4.18	59 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	3.81	69 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 30	62 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 29	85 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	61.9	110 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	+0.14	33 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	+0.11	64 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	-0.01	43 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	+0.05	75 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	49.6%	15 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	45.0%	45 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	14.5%	28 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	32.3%	56 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	30.8%	86 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	53.0%	11 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	38.5%	71 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	74.6%	14 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	52.4%	39 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

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