Matchup analysis
Our model projects Ohio 28, Toledo 27 at Peden Stadium in Week 13. That is a genuine toss-up: Ohio wins about 51% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.4 points and 55.1 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Toledo is 6-2 against the 122nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 37.4 and allowing 25.4 points per game (+12 per game). Ohio is 6-2 against the 135th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 29.6 and allowing 21.9 points per game (+7.7 per game).
Toledo's middle-of-the-pack offense (58th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.9 points against an average defense) meets Ohio's middle-of-the-pack defense (72nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Toledo puts up. Ohio's below-average offense (89th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.6 points against an average defense) meets Toledo's below-average defense (87th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Ohio puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Toledo by 22 and Ohio by 23 about 80% of the time.
Ohio gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Toledo would be favoured by 1.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Toledo vs Ohio: stat comparison
| Stat | Toledo | Ohio |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 37.4#16 | 29.6#65 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.4#85 | 21.9#53 |
| Yards per play | 6.74#21 | 6.06#62 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.96#22 | 5.42#57 |
| Rushing yards per game | 192.0#41 | 203.1#29 |
| Net passing yards per game | 284.1#13 | 171.6#121 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 148.0#62 | 150.6#65 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 193.1#46 | 180.4#28 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50#27 | 0.63#42 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.13#44 | 0.63#107 |
| Sacks per game | 2.75#18 | 2.00#76 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.75#7 | 1.75#66 |
| Stat | Toledo | Ohio |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.13#47 | +0.13#46 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.04#32 | +0.01#51 |
| Success rate | 43.5%#62 | 46.1%#39 |
| Success rate allowed | 35.4%#17 | 39.9%#55 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.2%#33 | 13.0%#63 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.7%#40 | 11.0%#53 |
| Havoc rate | 15.2%#39 | 15.3%#37 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.0%#40 | 10.5%#17 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.93#88 | 4.18#59 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.73#61 | 3.81#69 |
| Average starting field position | own 33#12 | own 30#62 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#103 | own 29#85 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 70.6#18 | 61.9#110 |
| Stat | Toledo | Ohio |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.07#75 | +0.14#33 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.18#40 | +0.11#64 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.06#25 | -0.01#43 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01#43 | +0.05#75 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.7%#75 | 49.6%#15 |
| Passing success rate | 46.9%#32 | 45.0%#45 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.8%#69 | 14.5%#28 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.1%#87 | 32.3%#56 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.9%#35 | 30.8%#86 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.3%#42 | 53.0%#11 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.2%#37 | 38.5%#71 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 64.4%#61 | 74.6%#14 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 59.1%#73 | 52.4%#39 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Toledo schedule · Ohio schedule · all Week 13 projections
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