2026 schedule

Toledo Rockets

6-2SOS #122

2026 season so far

Toledo is 6-2 against the 122nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 37.4 and allowing 25.4 points per game (+12 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings Toledo ranks 73rd of 139 FBS teams overall — 58th on offense and 87th on defense. The offense carries this team more than the defense does.

Next up: at Sacramento State in Week 10. We project Toledo 40, Sacramento State 15 — Toledo wins 95% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

at
Michigan State Spartans
1-0 · SOS #7
Loss 20-30
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Toledo by 3.1
Total 52.1
DraftKings
MSU -10
Total 48.5
Final Michigan State by 10. The spread landed exactly on the number. 50 points — over the 48.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Michigan State -10 (open Michigan State -10.5) · O/U 48.5 (open 49.5) · ML +312.5 / -410 · Michigan State 77% no-vig · model vs market -13.1 pts, -35 pct pts (Michigan State view)
FS1 Spartan Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games
vs
Central Connecticut Blue Devils
0-2 · SOS #82
Win 63-10
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Toledo by 38.9
Total 51.3
DraftKings
TOL -36.5
Total 52.5
Final Toledo by 53. Toledo beat the spread. 73 points — over the 52.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Toledo -36.5 (open Toledo -34.75) · O/U 52.5 (open 55) · ML +3500 / -20000 · Toledo 97% no-vig · model vs market +2.4 pts, +2 pct pts (Toledo view)
ESPN+ Glass Bowl
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: hit (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
Blowout big fav vs low-total dog over2026 combo · Held up Over: Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: Record 69 hits, 37 misses (65% hit rate) over 106 graded gamesBig favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: hit (n=106; wk 5–7 13-1) · Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14
vs
Temple Owls
1-2 · SOS #87
Win 49-48
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Toledo by 2.4
Total 52.2
DraftKings
TOL -4.5
Total 48.5
Final Toledo by 1. Temple beat the spread. 97 points — over the 48.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Toledo -4.75 (open Toledo -4.5) · O/U 48.5 (open 51.75) · ML +172.5 / -207.5 · Toledo 65% no-vig · model vs market -2.3 pts, -9 pct pts (Toledo view)
CBSSN Glass Bowl
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed
vs
San Diego State Aztecs
1-3 · SOS #69
Win 41-16
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Toledo by 7
Total 55.6
DraftKings
TOL -2.5
Total 50.5
Final Toledo by 25. Toledo beat the spread. 57 points — over the 50.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Toledo -2.75 (open Toledo -0.5) · O/U 50.5 (open 48.75) · ML +120 / -141 · Toledo 56% no-vig · model vs market +4.3 pts, +11 pct pts (Toledo view)
CBSSN Glass Bowl
Pregame calls · how each did
Rising-total close dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: Record 179 hits, 115 misses (61% hit rate) over 294 graded gamesSpread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: missed (n=294) · Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open
C. Walendzak RB · TD threat 78% · 1 ✓J. Kinnard RB · Low rush yds 87 (avg 103) · 70% · 4 ✓
at
Ball State Cardinals
1-4 · SOS #85
Win 39-24
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Toledo by 15.7
Total 58.1
DraftKings
TOL -20.5
Total 52.5
Final Toledo by 15. Ball State beat the spread. 63 points — over the 52.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Toledo -20.75 (open Toledo -18.5) · O/U 52.25 (open 51.5) · ML -1375 / +775 · Ball State 11% no-vig · model vs market +5.1 pts, +4 pct pts (Ball State view)
Game-time weather: 68°F, Wind 13 mph ENE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMIE)
ESPN+ Scheumann Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Blowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded gamesBlowout Alert: missed
C. Walendzak RB · TD threat 82% · 1 ✓A. Dabbs WR · TD threat 66% · 0 ✗
vs
Buffalo Bulls
3-3 · SOS #127
Loss 8-23
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Toledo by 19.8
Total 59
DraftKings
TOL -18.5
Total 54.5
Final Buffalo by 15. Buffalo beat the spread. 31 points — under the 54.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Toledo -18.75 (open Toledo -20) · O/U 55 (open 54.75) · ML +700 / -1150 · Toledo 88% no-vig · model vs market +1.0 pts, +2 pct pts (Toledo view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 6 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KDUH)
ESPN+ Glass Bowl
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: missedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
Blowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded gamesBlowout Alert: missed
C. Walendzak RB · TD threat 78% · 1 ✓J. Alan Richter QB · High pass yds 292 (avg 272) · 54% · 203 ✗
at
Eastern Michigan Eagles
4-4 · SOS #131
Win 34-14
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Toledo by 5.5
Total 54.9
DraftKings
TOL -7.5
Total 51.5
Final Toledo by 20. Toledo beat the spread. 48 points — under the 51.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Toledo -7.25 (open Toledo -5.75) · O/U 52.25 (open 52.75) · ML -250 / +205 · Eastern Michigan 32% no-vig · model vs market +1.8 pts, +4 pct pts (Eastern Michigan view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 54°F, Wind 6 mph SW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KYIP)
ESPN+ Rynearson Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Blowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded gamesBlowout Alert: hit
Bounce-back home dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: Record 284 hits, 203 misses (58% hit rate) over 487 graded gamesHome underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: missed (n=487) · Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game
C. Walendzak RB · TD threat 69% · 0 ✗
vs
Western Michigan Broncos
5-3 · SOS #91
Win 45-38
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Toledo by 1
Total 50.4
DraftKings
TOL -2.5
Total 48.5
Final Toledo by 7. Toledo beat the spread. 83 points — over the 48.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Toledo -2.5 · O/U 48.5 · ML +116 / -142 · Toledo 55% no-vig · model vs market -1.5 pts, -3 pct pts (Toledo view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 63°F, Wind 6 mph.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KDUH)
CBSSN Glass Bowl
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hit
Slow-pace tagged dog2026 combo · Weak Underdog wins: Our total 45-52 + Any pattern tag + Both teams' pace combined: bottom third: Record 21 hits, 16 misses (57% hit rate) over 37 graded gamesOur total 45-52 + Any pattern tag + Both teams' pace combined: bottom third: missed (n=37; wk 5–7 10-6) · Our total 45-52 + Any pattern tag + Both teams' pace combined: bottom third
B. Hammer WR · Low rec yds 44 (avg 61) · 73% · 107 ✗
at
Sacramento State Hornets
1-7 · SOS #136
Thu, Nov 5, 12:00 AM
Week 10
Proj 40-15 · 95%
Our number
Toledo by 25
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly sunny, 68°F, Wind 3 mph SW, 9% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
CBSSN Hornet Stadium
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded games
Blowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games
C. Miller RB · TD threat 70%A. Dabbs WR · TD threat 65%J. Alan Richter QB · High pass yds 297 (avg 281) · 53%
vs
Massachusetts Minutemen
4-4 · SOS #138
Wed, Nov 11 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 37-18 · 89%
Our number
Toledo by 19
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Glass Bowl
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded games
Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · W. Watson III QB · Low rush yds 25 (avg 30) · 75%
vs
Bowling Green Falcons
2-6 · SOS #92
Sat, Nov 21, 12:30 AM
Week 12
Proj 35-18 · 87%
Our number
Toledo by 17
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN2 Glass Bowl
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded games
Blowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games
Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · J. Kastantin QB · Low rush yds 18 (avg 16) · 75%Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · A. Dendy RB · Low rush yds 44 (avg 46) · 77%C. Miller RB · TD threat 72%
at
Ohio Bobcats
6-2 · SOS #135
Fri, Nov 27, 5:00 PM
Week 13
Proj 27-28 · 49%
Our number
Ohio by 1
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Peden Stadium
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games
Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games

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Toledo Rockets stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

-0.7

72nd in FBS

Adj. offense

27.9

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

28.5

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	37.4	16 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	25.4	85 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	6.74	21 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	4.96	22 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	192.0	41 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	284.1	13 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	148.0	62 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	193.1	46 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	0.50	27 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	1.13	44 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	2.75	18 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	0.75	7 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	+0.13	47 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	-0.04	32 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	43.5%	62 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	35.4%	17 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	14.2%	33 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	10.7%	40 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	15.2%	39 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	12.0%	40 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	3.93	88 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	3.73	61 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 33	12 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 31	103 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	70.6	18 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	+0.07	75 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	+0.18	40 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	-0.06	25 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	-0.01	43 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	43.7%	75 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	46.9%	32 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	16.8%	69 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	30.1%	87 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	26.9%	35 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	44.3%	42 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	35.2%	37 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	64.4%	61 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	59.1%	73 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

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